Here’s the End of May check-ins on all our rotations, from MLB to FCL.
Each team will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Important links for this analysis:
- Big Board: the big board shows the rotations, plus the starters and the roles of the relievers as best as I can figure. Furthermore, the rotations are in the correct “order” and synced across the system.
- Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com
- AAA Rochester stats: (all minor league stats at milb.com)
- AA Harrisburg stats
- High-A Wilmington stats
- Low-A Fredericksburg Stats
- FCL Nationals Stats
We’ll start with the Majors.
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Irvin, Gore, Williams, Parker, Corbin
Changes since end of April: none. Grey remains on the DL, but Cavalli has started rehabbing.
Rotation Observations: We continue to get unexpectedly solid production out of the rotation, given the fact that our opening day starter and #1 pitching prospect remain on the DL. Williams continues to be one of the best pitchers in the league, with a seasonal ERA of 2.22 and and even better 1.60 ERA for his six starts in May. He’s having a dream “contract year” season and hopefully fetches us a halfway decent prospect at the trade deadline, if not sooner (more on that later). Gore continues to come into his own, putting up a 2.60 ERA in his five May starts. Irvine’s May numbers were even better. Parker came back down to earth a bit in May after his stellar debut. Only Corbin continues to be awful, but that’s not really anything that we didn’t already know. The rotation collectively is sits 3rd in fWAR and 5th in FIP, and should only get better if and when we get back Grey and Cavalli.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Corbin. Same guy as at the end of April. One has to think that Corbin’s tenure will come to an end when Grey or Cavalli is ready to come back. They just can’t keep the deadweight on the roster anymore at that point. The harder question then becomes who is the NEXT guy to make way… say Cavalli comes back and Corbin gets cut. Then who do you demote for Grey? Right now its looking like Parker, but then they’d have no LHP starters. Maybe the timing will workout with a Williams trade to make room.
Bullpen comments: The pen generally continues to be a source of strength. You can’t ask for much more. Our four leading relievers all have ERAs under 3.00, and Floro has kept his under 1.00 through May. It’s hard to get decent returns for relievers, but I hope they can cash in a couple of these guys at the trade deadline.
AAA Rochester
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Adon, Rutledge, Watkins, Herz, Ward
Changes since end of April: None. Gsellman got a couple of spot starts, and middle reliever Zeuch got one spot start in a “bullpen game,” otherwise very little change so far in AAA.
Rotation Observations: None of the five starters had an especially awesome May to be honest. The best of them was Adon, who had a 4.13 ERA for the month to lower his seasonal ERA down to 5.63. That’s good to see, since he’s holding onto a 40-man roster spot. Watkins soaked up innings and that seems to be what the 31 yr old’s role will be this year. Herz walked nearly a guy an inning but got 3 wins in 5 starts by virtue of a .182 BAA and he remains probably the best of the AAA rotation. Rutledge’s stats were meh; 4.85 ERA. 1.50 whip. Nothing impressive there, though i’ll bet he remains atop the pecking order to come up for DH spot starts. Ward really struggled in May, putting up a 6.65 ERA in five starts.
Next guy to get Promoted: Herz, as he was last month. We have a surplus of healthy starters right now so it won’t likely happen, but next opportunity i’d like to see Herz out there.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Ward. He wouldn’t get cut, but I wonder how long he is for the rotation at this point. He turned 27 in January, he’s just not cutting it as a starter, and maybe he should move back to relief at some point. The team drug him all of 2023 on their active roster so they could keep him, but more and more that’s looking like it was all to save a middle reliever.
Bullpen comments: 40-man member La Sorsa had a stellar May and is a great option to call up if they need a bullpen arm. The only other 40-man arm in AAA is Willingham, who continues to be mediocre and may be in some trouble of keeping his roster spot once the team starts trading away its cache of relievers and they realize that non-40-man guys in AAA like Aldonis Medina (zero ER for the month) are worth a shot. Most of the guys in AAA bullpen had ERAs that started with a 5 or 6 for the month.
AA Harrisburg
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Luckham, Cuevas, Alvarez, Henry, Lord
Changes since end of April: Lara promoted up, replacing Henry, who hit the DL. Knowles made three spot starts in May but he also sits on the DL as we speak.
Rotation Observations: The AA rotation featured several stellar performances this month. Brad Lord, who was promoted up in April, went 5-0 with a 0.87 ERA in 5 starts, including a complete game shutout. Andry Lara, also recently promoted, made three starts and went 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA. That’s awesome to see, especially since he’s just 21 and had been somewhat mired in A ball the last couple of seasons while slowly watching his prospect status wither away. Lastly, Andrew Alvarez: 6 starts, 4 wins, a CG shutout with 2.72 ERA and a sub 1.00 whip.
On the down side, Luckham isn’t getting the swing and miss he probably needs to keep moving forward, and batters hit north of .300 against him to balloon his ERA to 4.88. Same with Cuevas, who is getting shredded right now to the tune of a 7.50 ERA in May. Knowles’ stats weren’t great before hitting the DL, and Henry’s one start went just 3 innings, so not much to go on for our former top 10 prospect.
Next guy to get Promoted: Alvarez. He was last years Nats POTY in the minors, he turns 25 in a couple of weeks and he’s a lefty. Might be time to see what he can do in AAA and see if he’s anything more than an org guy. I’d say Lord based on his May, but his April was so bad that now his season numbers are just average. Plus, there’s not a lot of room on the AAA rotation right now.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Luckham. But there’s a bit of rope here. They don’t have a ton invested in him as a 13th rounder, and he doesn’t turn 25 until the off season, but its put up or shut up time.
Bullpen comments: The bullpen just lost its best arm in Ribalta, recently promoted to AAA. Walters also got bumped up after putting up solid AA numbers. To replace them they promoted both Peterson and Grissom Jr from High-A, so too early to tell. Former closer Jack Sinclair was solid all month. Former flavor of the month Tyler Schoff got shelled this month: 6.75 ERA. Rule5 pick Daison Acosta and Holden Powell were both great out of the pen for the month and it’ll be interesting to see who gets the closer job. I’d like to see Powell (a relatively high draft pick) perform and contribute at the higher levels.
High-A Wilmington
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Atencio, Caceres, Young, Cornelio, Theophile
Changes since end of April: Lara got promoted, replaced by Atencio. Cavalli is there as of 5/31 doing rehab starts and stealing starts.
Rotation Observations: Not a lot to brag about in Wilmington’s rotation in May. The best performer was the newest guy Atencio, who in 3 starts had a 3.38 ERA and 14/3 K/BB. That’s decent for the 2018 IFA signing. Cornelio continues to put up mediocre numbers: 4.44 ERA for the month. Good enough to stick around, but not to earn any promotions. Caceres and Theophile both had ERAs in the 6s, and Caceres’ K/BB was just 14/12 in 23 innings. Young’s line was pretty similar; not a ton of swing and miss.
Seth Shuman, a sneaky good starter who’s been hurt forever, is now doing rehab starts in the FCL and could return here soon, likely bumping one of the lesser performers.
Next guy to get Promoted: Nobody. Last month’s candidate Lara indeed got promoted, but nobody here is really making a case to move up. Atencio is performing the best but he just got promoted into this rotation and needs some time.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Last month was Caceres; it still is. He’s 24, too old for the level, and is just not cutting it. Theophile may start worrying too.
Bullpen comments: Several bullpen arms had solid months. Matt Cronin got popped up from XST and has been solid; well he should be, being 26 and formerly being on the 40-man roster. He needs to get back to AAA. Wander Arias, a rule5 pick this past off season, was stellar and probably should be getting moved up soon. Carlos Romero gave up just 1 run in 11 innings. There’s a lot of crooked numbers elsewhere in this pen, and If we had more healthy arms i could see some moving up.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Sthele, Sanchez, Susana, Davis, Sykora, Polanco
Changes since End of April: Atencio promoted, replaced by Sykora and Polanco as they seem to be going to a 6-man rotation.
Rotation Observations: I’m treating this rotation as a 6-man rotation, even if what they really seem to be doing is giving certain arms a week’s rest each 6-day series. Nonetheless, we have 6 guys getting regular starts, so that’s what we’ll look at. Susana has been awful. 5 starts in May, 8.05 ERA, 1.84 whip. I’m not sure what the next step is with him, but his defenders are running out of excuses as to why he continues to underperform with triple-digit heat. Sykora’s debut so far has been great: 4.23 ERA but his peripherals are solid: 23/6 K/BB in 16IP, 1.20 ERA, .215 BAA. That’s great for our big-bonus prep draftee from last year, and its nice to see a high school Nats pick faring well. Marc Davis has had a solid May under the radar given the two higher-profile kids in this rotation.
On the down side, Travis Sthele, 12th rounder last year, has not been good. ERA north of 10, batters are hitting nearly .400 against him. Bryan Sanchez is only slightly less bad; he had an 8/14 K/BB ratio for the month but managed to keep the runs down as compared to Sthele. Polanco isn’t lighting it up in his spot starts but at least he’s not as bad as these guys.
Reminder of the Low-A DL: they almost have enough arms for TWO more rotations sitting on their DL: Amaral, Ramirez, Tepper, Aldonis, Tolman, Sullivan, Agostini, and Marquez, along with a couple middle relievers on the full season DL. That’s a lot of pitching depth. A couple of these guys are/were decent prospects too, which is one of the reasons we have so little pitching depth in our system.
Next guy to get Promoted: Davis, maybe? Sykora has the best numbers but there’s no way they’re putting him in High-A unless he nohits the league for a month.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sthele’s days seem numbered in the rotation.
Bullpen comments: they have three guys in the back of the bullpen lighting it up right now in Bubba Hall, Thomas Schultz, and Matthew Bollenbacher. That’s a 9th rounder and two NDFAs, for you keeping score at home. Nothing like getting solid pro pitchers for $10k. Mason Denaburg has actually been serviceable this month in a long-man role: 3.78 ERA in 9 appearances. Maybe they give him another whirl in the rotation; has to be better than what they’re getting from Sthele, Sanchez, or Polanco.
Rookie/FCL Nationals
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Colon, Portorreal, Camilio Sanchez, Brayan Romero, “Farias”
Changes since End of April: none: the season started in May.
Rotation Observations: Despite it being the FCL, which normally is a playground for rehabbing players and XST stalwarts, the FCL rotation seems like it’s been pretty consistent since the season opened. A couple of the starts early on seemed like “tandem starts” where one guy went 3 innings then another guy went 3 innings, but the rotation has settled into what you see above.
So far, Colon has looked the best: 2.37 ERA albeit with not a ton of K/9 power. Portorreal’s ERA is decent but his BAA is .324; that’s not going to last. Romero’s peripherals are better than his ERA is, and lastly Sanchez has a 2.00 whip and a 9.50 ERA. Farias is in quotes as a member of the rotation b/c he made one start, got shelled, and hasn’t been seen since. His spot has been filled with rehabbers since: Brzycky, Cavalli, and Shuman have all made one start in FCL on rehab stints.
Interesting observation; on the FCL’s opening day, every single arm on the roster was an IFA. Every single one. They’ve added three MLFAs in the past couple of weeks who were domestic players, but it’s interesting to see how they’re using this roster right now. The lion’s share of the position players (14 of the 18 guys) are also IFAs. I attribute this to the fact that we don’t draft a ton of prep kids, so basically all our 2023 draft picks are starting at Low-A or higher.
Next guy to get Promoted: nobody; the two guys pitching “decent” are 18 and 19 respectively right now, and they’ll spend the whole season in the FCL.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Camilio Sanchez was an older 2022 IFA out of Panama, for not a ton of money, and he may get cut loose if he doesn’t turn it around.
Bullpen comments: All these arms are such small sample sizes (3-4IP each) its hard to make any judgements on the slew of arms in FCL.
That’s it for May 2024. Soon we’ll have the DSL roster to contend with.