As with last year, the final major scouting pundit/shop to publish their “pre-2024” list of Nats prospects is Fangraphs & Eric Longenhagen, and what a list it was.
Here’s the table of players, which is at the above link as well with more detail and FG’s FV values.
| Rank | Last Name | First Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wood | James | OF (Corner) |
| 2 | Crews | Dylan | OF (CF) |
| 3 | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) |
| 4 | House | Brady | SS/3B |
| 5 | Hurtado | Victor | OF |
| 6 | Sykora | Travis | RHP (Starter) |
| 7 | Millas | Drew | C |
| 8 | Vaquero | Cristian | OF (CF) |
| 9 | Parker | Mitchell | LHP (Starter) |
| 10 | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) |
| 11 | Ribalta | Orlando | RHP (reliever) |
| 12 | Herz | DJ | LHP (Starter) |
| 13 | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) |
| 14 | Brzykcy | Zach | RHP (Reliever) |
| 15 | Green | Elijah | OF (CF) |
| 16 | Morales | Yohandy | 3B |
| 17 | Shuman | Seth | RHP (Starter) |
| 18 | Bennett | Jake | LHP (Starter) |
| 19 | Baker | Darren | 2B |
| 20 | Rutledge | Jackson | RHP (Starter) |
| 21 | Nunez | Nasim | SS |
| 22 | Made | Kevin | SS |
| 23 | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) |
| 24 | Cruz | Armando | SS |
| 25 | Lipscomb | Trey | 3B |
| 26 | Feliz | Angel | 3B/SS |
| 27 | Lara | Andry | RHP (Starter) |
| 28 | Cox | Brenner | OF (CF) |
| 29 | Mota | Jorgelys | SS |
| 30 | Cooper | Everett | SS |
| 31 | De La Rosa | Jeremy | OF (Corner) |
| 32 | Acosta | Daison | RHP (reliever) |
Here’s the slot by slot analysis. Before we get started, we should probably point out that Longenhagen is absolutely the biggest proponent of “ceiling” versus “floor” in prospect analysis, and some of his rankings are clear evidence of that.
- Top 4 are the same as everyone else. Wood gets ahead of Crews, and Cavalli presents as the rare ranking ahead of House, perhaps because Cavalli’s nearly 26 and his ETA is basically as soon as he’s done with rehab.
- #5 is Victor frigging Hurtado. I am not kidding. Hurtado, who is given an ETA of the year 2030, who was signed to a pro contract 5 months ago and who has yet to play a single inning of pro ball, is the 5th best prospect in the system. I get it; he’s a highly regarded International signing, but there’s just no way you put a guy this far away from the majors ahead of so many other guys who are going to contribute in the next couple of years.
- #6 is Travis Sykora, who suffers from the same issue as Hurtado. I mean, at least Sykora is playing right now. But man, this is a hefty projection based on his 2023 draft status.
- #7 is Drew Millas. Millas! He’s already 26, he’s a AAA catcher, he’s behind both Ruiz and Adams on the pecking order, and if anyone thought he was this frigging good they’d come asking for him, since clearly he’s surplus goods for this team. I don’t see another pundit who has him higher than like 18-20 in the system, for the same reason. You’re telling me Millas is a better prospect than Mitchell Parker? Right now? The same Parker who’s got a 3.45 ERA in 8 starts right now, including wins over multiple 2023 playoff teams?? Come on.
- The aforementioned Parker comes in at #9, which is where you’d expect him to be with the benefit of hindsight, instead of the 20-25 range most of us thought in January.
- Orlando Ribalta comes in at #11. Ok. So now you see the problem with ordering your ranks by a FV column while also knowing that a pitcher is already a reliever. There’s NO WAY a right handed reliever in AA who’s already 26 is a prospect at all, let alone a near-top 10 prospect (Note: he’s recently been promoted to AAA, but my point is still the same). What does Ribalta project to? The 5th guy out of the bullpen? The definition of a replacement player is someone who can easily be replaced with the next guy out of AAA. I think the highest you should ever rank a reliever is in the 20s, unless they’re the next coming of Rollie Fingers.
- Same issue as I have with Ribalta at #11, I have with Brzycky at #14. Even moreso, since the guy is on the full season DL.
- Oh how the mighty have fallen: Elijah Green all the way to #15 here. Longenhagen gives him a 20 grade on his hit tool. 20. You and I have a 20 grade hit tool. He also gives him just a 25 grade on “game power” right now. Ouch. I mean, I get it; the guy has done almost nothing to earn his high 1st round drafting slot or his signing bonus. I would have expected some improvement by now though.
- Morales, who is generally 4th or 5th on every other list, comes in at #16 here. Eric is pretty bearish on his progress so far, even though he started the year in AA as a 2023 draft pick.
- Seth Shuman at #18. Really? Didn’t pitch a lick in 2023 due to TJ, currently on the 60-day DL and is 26 having never pitched above high-A. How is this a prospect at all? I mean, yes I like his stats, and if not for injury and Covid maybe we’d be having a different conversation, but he’s nearly at the end of his 6year ML tenure and he may not even get to AA this year. How is that a prospect at all? (Yes I know I already said that).
- Darren Baker at #19, highest of anyone i’ve seen. I mean, yeah, if you put relievers just outside your top 10 you’ve gotta rate backup infielders highly too.
- Nunez still listed despite exhausing his service time by now, though maybe Longenhagen is going by PAs for rookie status, which, if that’s the case, Nunez may not get 10 PAs the rest of the season based on his usage so far.
- Robert Hassell all the way down at #23. Which is ridiculous. He’s got better tools across the board than players above him, he’s repeating AA at age 22 despite having hamate bone surgery last year, and he’s CF capable. His slash line is solid this year so far (.288/.380/.369) and if the only ding you have on him is his slugging/XBH tool just be patient; he slugged .470 as a 19yr old in A ball three years ago.
- Lipscomb dumped to #25, why? Why would you have a guy who HAS been in the majors as a backup infielder behind a guy like Baker, who hasn’t?
- Brenner Cox, who has done a ton to rehabilitate his profile so far in 2024, comes in at #28. Good for him, and good to see him hitting.
- Jorgelys Mota gets a mention, one of the few shops to do so, coming in at #29.
- Lastly, his #32 spot is a guy making his debut on any prospect list for this team, minor league Rule5 draftee Daison Acosta, who’s currently a 25yr old reliever in AA with solid 2024 numbers.
So, a weird list that really goes against the grain of the rest of the prospect rankings out there. Is he right when everyone else is wrong?