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Fourteen week Check-in with 1-1 Draft Candidates

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Arnold seems like a lock at this point for the top 5; would the Nats pluck him for 1-1? Photo via FSU sports page

Here’s our seventh check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. We’re at the end of week 14 of the college season, which is also the end of the regular season for the major conferences. Next week is conference tournaments, then we get the field of 64 and regionals. We’ll continue to have stat updates but they’ll likely be tied to post-season performances going forward.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

  • MLBPipeline’s Jim Callis published his first official Mock Draft of the season on 5/6/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Hernandez, and Arnold. Highest i’ve seen either Doyle or especially Anderson.
  • Keith Law at the Athletic released his first Mock draft on 5/7/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Arquette, Arnold, and Witherspoon (?), who i’ve not ever mentioned/studied once in this series. He’s Oklahoma’s Friday night RHP starter (sound familiar?).
  • Baseball America Mock Draft 3.0 on 5/12/25. They go Holliday, Arquette, Hernandez, Doyle, Arnold. Pretty high for Arquette, but more in line with my current predictions (see the bottom).
  • ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted a “mini-mock” and his top 150 list on 5/14/25. Of course his top 5 in the mock didn’t match his ranks. Mock went Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Anderson. His ranks go Arnold, Willits, Holliday, Hernandez, Carlson. He loves the prep kids in FV.
  • MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo posted his latest Mock draft on 5/15/25. Holliday, Arnold, Doyle, Arquette, Anderson. The MLB guys clearly like Anderson.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys now removed from 1-1 discussion at this point. I’m just leaving their ranks at this point for space considerations.

Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running.

  • Arnold had a quality start in Berkeley (you know, Cal-Berkeley, a member of the “Atlantic Coast” Conference), then got roughed up by #4 UNC in his final regular season start, giving up 4 runs in 5 IP. FSU is likely to be a top 8 seed, which means Arnold probably gets at least three more starts (ACC tournament, Regionals, and Super-Regionals) before FSU is likely done; hopefully they make the CWS for even more looks.
  • Arquette had a decent series against Long Beach State for his top-5 ranked OSU team, and his performance seems to have reached its stability point for the season. He’s now at .348/.473/.676 from .351/.472/.701 two weeks ago, almost identical numbers across the board. He seems like a lock for the top 5, but seems out of the running for 1-1 to the Nats.
  • LaViolette finally gets “cut” from this discussion list. I just don’t see him supplanting the college guys on this list for 1-1 consideration, and Callis’ mock has him nearly out of the top 10.
  • Doyle remains on this list to continue discussing now that MLBpipeline has both him and Anderson jumping Arnold in his 5/6/25 mock. He pitched amazingly well to shut down Vandy two weeks ago, 7ip 3h 0r 12K. Then he got shelled in his final regular season start against top-ranked Arkansas: 4 2/3, 11 hits (!), 8 runs. Not the lasting impression to leave with scouts. Luckily he’ll have a couple post-season starts to rebound.
  • Anderson and Doyle both sit near the top of the national K/9 ranks, and had to face down two great teams to end the season. Against #1 Arkansas, Anderson went 5 2/3r, 10/1 K/BB and gave up 2 runs. not bad. Then to finish the season at South Carolina, Anderson went 6 2/3rds and gave up just one run. Definitely finished strong, but he’s 3rd out of 3 top LHP college pitchers on most boards apparently.

Prep kids: Not much news this cycle; most Prep HS schedules are starting to wind down. In fact, I have zero updates on any of the top three prep kids

  • Holliday
  • Hernandez
  • Willits

The Race for 1-1 status: More and more I’m thinking the college arms are not in contention, while we’re seeing fast risers from the prep ranks. I now think the Nats are down to one of 3 guys: Arnold, Hernandez, and Holliday. I think they’re going to end up with Holliday.

In Week 12, I reviewed each of the top 5 teams, discussing their draft proclivities in more detail, which leads me to these guesses as to who they’ll draft. Here’s how I think they’ll pick, assuming we go Holliday 1-1.

  • Angels: close to majors, college guys: Arnold or Doyle. Maybe Arquette
  • Seattle: top-end Prep kids: Willits or more likely Hernandez
  • Colorado: college arms: Doyle or Arnold if available
  • St. Louis: college bats: LaViolette, Arquette more likely.

So my current top 5: Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.