As the losses pile up, it is time to question if the Nationals rebuild is on track
2025 was supposed to be a season where the Washington Nationals climbed up the standings. Nobody was expecting a World Series title, or even playoffs, but fans and the organization itself wanted to see the team push towards .500. Davey Martinez said the time to win was now, and that sentiment was heard a lot during Spring Training.
Stagnating in the Standings:
However, the team looks to have stagnated, or even regressed this season. After losing five in a row, the team is now 17-24, again sitting near the basement of the National League. In fact, the Nationals looked much better at this point in 2024. The Nats were 20-21 through 41 games last season. Yes, standings are not the only metric of progress in a rebuild, but we are now deep enough into the process that wins and losses are an important metric. Another 71-91 season would be a gut punch for this fan base.
If we were to just look at the record, there would be no question that the rebuild has stagnated and even regressed. However, there is more to the story. If you want to be positive, there are things to point to.
The Core is Performing:
The biggest thing optimists would point to is the performance of the Nationals core players. James Wood, CJ Abrams, and MacKenzie Gore are all having great seasons. Wood already has more homers and WAR than he did all of last season in about half the games. He is a force of nature at the plate and looks like a superstar. Wood has ridiculous power and a patient approach to go with it. His .903 OPS places him among baseball’s elite hitters.
James Wood looks like a foundational piece, and so does CJ Abrams after a rough second half both on and off the field last year. The Nationals shortstop came into the season with a point to prove, and he is showing that every at bat. He is hitting .315 with an .897 OPS so far this season. While most of the offense has been struggling, Abrams has been a hitting machine lately. He is not trying to do to much and is trusting his talent. CJ Abrams looks like a hitter with all the answers right now.
MacKenzie Gore is the Nationals ace, and yet another piece of the Juan Soto trade. He leads all of baseball in strikeouts so far this season. His 3.59 ERA is good, not great, but his 3.21 FIP suggests he is getting unlucky. Gore is another uber talented player the Nats have to build around. His stuff is so nasty, and it still feels like he has another level to unlock in his game. Gore can get swings and misses at will, but he still has a level to reach in his mental game. However, he is still a great pitcher.
Not Surrounding the Core:
If those core three pieces are performing so well, why are the Nationals dropping in the standings? Well, they are not getting a whole lot out of the other guys, and that is a problem. Those three guys can only do so much if they do not have any help.
As has been well documented, the Nationals bullpen has been a disaster and has cost the team plenty of games. The team would certainly be closer to .500 with a better bullpen. However, that is not the only issue. The Nationals offense is maddeningly inconsistent and can go cold for long stretches as we saw this weekend. That is due to the amount of holes the lineup has. Outside of Abrams, Wood, Nathaniel Lowe, and Alex Call, there is not a ton to write home about.
Dylan Crews has really struggled this season, with an average of just .182. He is not alone, with guys such as Josh Bell, Luis Garcia Jr., and Jacob Young not carrying their weight offensively. If guys like Wood and Abrams are shut down, there is not much to worry about in the Nats offense.
Honestly, most of the guys that did not come in the Juan Soto trade have been mediocre at best. That says a lot about the problems the organization has developing home grown talent. Who is the best truly home grown player on the team? Chew on that for a minute, because the names are not great.
Starting Pitching Fading:
At the beginning of the season, the Nationals starting pitching was the strength of the team. Gore, Jake Irvin, and Mitchell Parker were rolling. On April 25th, the Nats had the sixth best rotation ERA, now it is sixth worst.
There are a lot of factors that go into that. Mitchell Parker’s regression was inevitable. His hot start was never sustainable. However, that regression has hit like a truck his last few starts. Trevor Williams has failed to replicate his 2024 performances and Jake Irvin has been up and down.
With the state of the bullpen, there is a lot of pressure on this rotation to perform, and it looks like they could be cracking. That would be a big problem for the Nats.
State of the Rebuild:
So after all that, is the rebuild stagnating? Honestly, I would say yes. You can point to guys like Abrams, Wood, and Gore, but you have to surround those players. Mike Rizzo has been unable to do that due to a shoestring budget and subpar player development.
We are at the point in the rebuild where the team needs to be winning more games. Are we really confident this team will win more than 71 games? They have some star power, but the rest of the roster is poorly constructed and the team has fatal flaws.
If the Nats fail to improve, changes need to be made. As 2019 gets further in the rear view mirror, the desire for a new era of Nationals baseball grows. Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez are both Nationals legends, but even the greats can’t do it forever.