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June Draft Content review and Final 1-1 candidate stat check-in

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Like Crews before him, Anderson finishes off his college career with a title before getting picked by the Nats in the 1st. Maybe. Photo via MLB.com

Here’s our ninth check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. There’s not a ton of stat updating, since we’re down to the CWS with just a couple of 1-1 candidates active in Omaha, so this is mostly about discussing draft content as it has been released lately.

We’re still a few weeks away from the draft, which occurs in mid July at the All Star Game. Amazing to think we used to have this draft basically during the college playoffs. However, as you can see from some of the more recent mocks, we’re definitely starting to see some repeating predictions at the top.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

  • Baseball America released its v4.0 Mock Draft on 6/9/25: they go Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Doyle, Willits. In the text they say the following: “Holliday, Willits and then Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette would be my favorites [to be picked by the Nationals], in that order.”
  • Baseball Prospect Journal is kind of a new shop that i’ve found recently; they’ve done a couple mocks already. Here’s their latest dated 6/9/25: Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Arnold, Willits. Very similar to BA’s above.
  • Keith Law released his latest v2.0 Mock Draft on 6/12/25 with a surprise at top: Arquette, Doyle, Anderson, Holliday, Willits
  • MLBPipeline’s Jim Callis released his latest Mock on 6/12/25. Holliday, Anderson, Arnold, Hernandez, Carlson (?). He seems to think the Nats are down to either Holliday or Anderson.
  • Baseball America released a list of the 322 players signed up for the MLB Draft Combine, being held June 17-21 in Phoenix. Notable 1-1 candidates attending: Arnold, Doyle, Hernandez. Notable 1-1 candidates who are NOT going to attend? Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Willits. Interesting. I wonder if its a gambit by Holliday in particular to not show up in order to prevent any team shenanigans from happening.
  • ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel released his v2.0 mock draft on 6/17/25: he goes Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Holliday, then a huge shocker in JoJo Parker at #5, a player i’ve not even heard of throughout this entire process. Remember, McDaniel’s model highly overvalues “Future Value” or FV, and prep kids look a ton better in his ranks than college kids.
  • MLBPipeline’s Callis with his 6/19/25 mock: Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Arnold, and Willits. In the last week he’s dropped both Hernandez and Carlson in favor of Arnold and Willits.
  • USA Today did a consolidated Mock by averaging the draft positions of a bunch of other pundits (most of whom are linked above) and came up with Holliday, Doyle, Arquette, Anderson, Arnold
  • BA released its “Draft Intel” notes article on 6/23/25, with a couple of nuggets on top candidates.
  • Baseball Prospect Journal released its v3.0 Mock Draft on 6/24/25. They go Anderson, Arnold, Arquette, Holliday, Willits. Clearly, if Holiday doesn’t got #1 overall, he isn’t getting by Colorado at #4 with the family connection.
  • Callis & Mayo did a back-and-forth mock on their MLBPipeline podcast on 6/24/25: Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Arnold, Willits.

Draft Boards (not mocks): these are major shops Prospect Ranking lists, usually with Scouting reports, video, tool grades, etc.

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running; all four had significant post season stats to discuss:

  • Anderson threw the first game of the CWS against Arkansas and was glittering: 7ip 3 hits, 1r (on an inside FB that Arkansas’ light-hitting 1B turned on), 7/2 K/BB. Just 100 pitches to get through 7. If this was his last performance for scouts, he couldn’t have asked for much more. Then, when LSU made the final, Anderson got the ball on regular rest and threw what was both amazing and concerning: complete game 1-0 shutout, 3hitter. 10k/5bb … and 130 pitches. 130. He was north of 100 heading into the 8th but stayed in to the end. We discussed this in the comments already; will this make a difference in the Nats decision making? It will be curious to see how the pundits/mock drafters react, if at all. Season complete.
  • Arquette went 5-14 with a huge 9th inning homer in his final collegiate game in three CWS games. His only RBI was his solo shot, but he certainly finished on a high note. Season Complete.
  • Doyle Season Complete
  • Arnold: Season complete.

Prep kids:

  • Holliday: season complete.
  • Hernandez: season complete.
  • Willits: season complete.

My current prediction for the top 5: Despite pundits claiming the nats are considering basically 7-8 guys, I think its going to be either Anderson or Holliday.

If we pick Holliday, the top 5 prediction is:

  • Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Arnold, Willits.

If however, the Nats go Anderson, then I think the draft goes like this:

  • Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday (lock here if he doesn’t go 1-1), Arnold

I’m repeating this analysis from before on the teams in the top 5 and their proclivities with their 1st rounders, but i’ve added to it a bit as it helps guide the predictions:

  1. Washington: likes “famous” guys and isn’t afraid to roll with Boras clients: this is the argument for Holliday. But, they love taking big body college arms with their first picks (a moniker that describes most of the 1st rounders in the Rizzo era), which screams either Anderson or Doyle. The post season performances of all three college arms re-configured where they stand; going into the playoffs it probably want Arnold-Doyle-Anderson. Coming out of the post-season, it’s Anderson-Arnold-Doyle. I believe Anderson has separated himself from the pack and is now a worthy 1-1 pick. We’d still get a haircut on him, which helps us later on.
  2. Angels: want quick to the majors college guys; they hyper promote and have had a draftee be first to debut for each draft class for 3 years running. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college players. This screams polished college arm, and Doyle seems closest to the majors. Like, Doyle could be in their bullpen in September. If Anderson is available they take him, otherwise Doyle.
  3. Seattle loves prep kids at the top; 5 of last 6 picks have been HSers, all bats, no prep arms. However, none of the analysts have them on a prep kid this year. Everyone has them on Arquette. It’s entirely possible they’re looking at the prep SS (Holliday, Willits, even Carson) and saying, “Arquette is 2yrs older and a ton better).
  4. Colorado can’t get FA pitchers to come to Denver, so they have to grow them. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college, and 3 of the last 4 are arms. I think they pick Arnold or Doyle, whoever’s there (likely Arnold). That being said, if Holliday is available, this is his likely floor due to the family connection in Colorado. So, its either Holliday or whatever arm is left.
  5. St. Louis has 4 straight college guys in 1st; I think they end up with whoever from Arquette, Arnold, Doyle, or Anderson is available here. However, they (like the industry) seems to have soured on Doyle, so many have them plucking the next-best prep SS in Willits.