10:15am: Cavalli will make $862.5K in 2026, according to a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The club option is worth $4MM and comes with a buyout of $7.5K, guaranteeing Cavalli $870K in total.
9:14am: The Nationals announced this morning that they have avoided arbitration with right-hander Cade Cavalli. The sides agreed to a one-year deal today that includes a club option for the 2027 season. Financial details of the deal are not yet clear. Cavalli was one of 18 players to exchange filing figures with his team after failing to reach an agreement prior to the deadline earlier this month. Cavalli filed at $900K, while the Nationals filed at $825K.
That $75K gap between the two sides was the smallest among the 18 players and teams to exchange figures. Even with such a tiny gap in negotiations, however, there was no guarantee that an arbitration hearing would be avoided. Teams overwhelmingly subscribe to the “file and trial” approach towards arbitration at this point, and the Nationals are no exception. Teams tend to hold a firm line in arbitration negotiations and are willing to fight over even small amounts of money. That’s partially because player salaries tend to build off themselves throughout arbitration, and even a small pay bump in an early year of arbitration can snowball into much larger gains for the player three or four years down the road. In addition, arbitration hearings are so focused on precedent that offering one player a salary above the usual range can create an outlier case for players and agents to use as a comparison point in future hearings.
In this case, the Nationals and Cavalli have bridged the gap by using a loophole in the arbitration system. By attaching a club option to the deal, it technically becomes a multi-year arrangement that cannot be used as a reference point in future arbitration negotiations and hearings. Without the cloud of creating a new precedent hanging over the negotiations, the Nationals were surely more comfortable being flexible with Cavalli and were more motivated to avoid what could have been a messy arbitration hearing that runs the risk of damaging the club’s relationship with a former top prospect who could remain a key part of their team for years to come.
Looking ahead to 2026, Cavalli will attempt to build off of a 2025 season where he made it back to the majors for the first time since 2022 and delivered a decent 4.25 ERA across ten starts. He struck out 18.3% of his opponents while walking 6.8%. Solid underlying metrics, including a 4.09 SIERA, suggest that Cavalli could be a solid mid-rotation arm for the Nationals next year even if him reaching the ace-level ceiling fans in D.C. were surely dreaming on when he was selected 22nd overall in the 2020 draft appears unlikely at this point. Cavalli will join MacKenzie Gore (assuming he isn’t traded before the season begins), Foster Griffin, and Brad Lord among the team’s likely starters headed into the years. Josiah Gray, Jake Irvin, and Mitchell Parker are among the possible options to fill out that group.