Luis García has been inconsistent in 2025. But while his numbers don’t look great on the surface, a closer look at the underlying stats suggests that bad luck may be more to blame
Washington’s lineup is flooded with young talent. From James Wood to CJ Abrams, the offensive potential in Washington is very real. Even while struggling in 2024, Washington had multiple bright spots across the board and some surprising breakouts.
Before 2024, Luis Garcia Jr. performed like an average bench player, around a league-average hitter and defender. Garcia showed signs of life in 2024, posting career numbers across the board, and playing like one of the best second basemen in the MLB.
2025 has been a different story, regressing to the numbers he was posting pre-2024. However, when digging into the numbers, there may be a different reason for the regression in numbers.
LUIS GARCIA JR. 2025 STATS
- .250/.298/.401
- 5 HR
- 22 RBI
- 98 OPS+
Garcia’s stats are down across the board compared to his breakout 2024 season. He slashed .282/.318/.444 and hit a career-high eighteen home runs and played the most games in his career. Along with twenty-two stolen bases, Garcia also produced a career-high in WAR with 2.2.
GARCIA’S ADVANCED STATS SHOW PROGRESS—BAD LUCK HOLDING HIM BACK?
Garcia was spectacular against off-speed pitches in 2024, batting .310 while having a .529 slugging percentage. This year has been a different story, only hitting .205 and slugging .318. His PutAway percentage on off-speeds has jumped from 12.5 percent to 26.5 percent.
Digging deeper, Garcia has improved statistically in certain areas. His hard hit percentage has increased from 41.7 to 46.1, his strikeout percentage has dropped from 16.3 to 13.1 (Top 10% of MLB), and his walk percentage has increased from 5.1 to 6.3. This increase in hard hit rate and fewer strikeouts is impressive and his expected stats are the highest of his career.
The six-year second baseman has increased his expected stats to all-career highs this season. His expected batting average is .304 compared to last season’s .278, his expected slugging is at .493 compared to .452 and his expected WOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) is .368 compared to .331 in 2024. The expected stats are up across the board, indicating the quality of his contact is great, and this could be attributed to “bad luck”. Garcia’s barrel percentage is up and he is putting the ball in the air the most in his career.
RECENT OFFENSIVE SURGE
The reality is, that these stats mean nothing compared to the actual stats he currently sits with. Unfortunately, his numbers are down to this point in the season, however, the expected stats could indicate the potential of a bounce-back in the second half of the season. We are already seeing signs of progression as the season goes on.
In his last thirty games, Luis Garcia Jr. is slashing .276/.316/.467, and his last seven games have been even better, slashing .375/.423/.667. He has been tremendous as of late, showing signs of life after a very rough start to the season.
In conclusion, Garcia has been a victim of “bad luck”. He is hitting the ball harder and creating better contact the best he ever has. All signs are pointing up for Luis Garcia Jr. So Nationals fans do not need to panic, they might just have their franchise second baseman.