Nationals Luke Dickerson: On A Heater or the Real Deal?

The Nats’ 3rd selection in the 2025 MLB Draft is looking like a big hit so far in 2025, but can he keep it up?

Dickerson’s Pre-Draft Rise

Luke Dickerson was a prospect with major helium entering the 2025 MLB Draft, jumping over 250 spots in Baseball America’s draft rankings over the course of his senior season. Dickerson’s elite athleticism and impressive numbers made him an intriguing prospect, but the difficulty to get eyes on him due to the weather conditions of New Jersey limiting year-round games and him being a multi-sport athlete (he helped his high school win a state championship in hockey his senior year) made him a risky choice high in the draft. Combined with his commitment to the University of Virginia, a school notoriously difficult to break prospects’ commitments away from, some teams may have steered clear even if they believed in the talent. The Nats did not, however, and picked him with the 44th overall pick in the 2025 MLB draft, convincing him to walk away from his UVA commitment with a 3.8 million signing bonus, the largest ever for a 2nd round pick. It was rumored some clubs, such as the New York Yankees, were also heavily interested in Dickerson, but no team could match the signing bonus the Nats gave him, most of which they saved up from selecting Seaver King under-slot with the 10th overall pick earlier in the draft. Naturally, with the Nats passing on some great talents in the first round and picking King to have the savings to sign Dickerson, anticipation for Dickerson’s debut was high to see what he could do.

Dickerson’s Hot Start And Why It Is Sustainable

The Nats took it slow out of the gate with Dickerson, not having him play professional games in the final 2 months of 2024 and starting him in the complex league to begin 2025. However, Dickerson’s performance forced their hand as he slashed .273/.385/.409 in 6 games and was called up to Fredericksburg, the Nationals’ Low-A affiliate. There, all he has done is improve, so far slashing .293/.403/.466 in 17 games. Perhaps even more impressive than his performance has been Dickerson’s combination of good swing decisions and power. At just 19 years old, he is making 2% more in zone contact than the average Low-A player, chasing pitches out of the zone 3% less, and whiffing when he swings 6% less. He is doing all this while displaying elite raw power potential, posting a max exit velocity of 112.3 MPH, a number that would rank 51st in MLB this season and 3rd on the Nationals, trailing only James Wood and CJ Abrams. His 90th percentile exit velocity, a statistic better at showing how much consistent hard contact a player makes, of 107.4 MPH is nearly 6 MPH better than the average 19-year-old prospect. Dickerson has played a little less than a month’s worth of professional games, so it isn’t time to crown him as the franchise’s savior or anything yet, but the results are impressive, and the underlying numbers indicate this is sustainable success. His performance has been so impressive that major publications are starting to take notice, jumping up 10 spots to become the Nats’ third-best prospect according to ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic ranking him as the 48th best prospect in all of baseball.

Where Does Dickerson Fit In The Nats’ Long-Term Plans?

We are still likely at least 2–3 years from seeing Dickerson play in the nation’s capital, as he will need to prove he can sustain his success through the many levels of the minor leagues. If he continues his offensive tear at Low-A, he’ll likely see a promotion soon to Wilmington, the Nationals’ High-A affiliate, where he will face the best pitching he’s likely ever seen in a cavern of a ballpark where fly balls go to die. By 2026, he should find himself in Double-A Harrisburg, and from there, his performance will dictate how quickly he reaches the big league club. Offensively, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN compares Dickerson to Texas Rangers OF Wyatt Langford, both smaller but extremely strong players with great power. As for his defensive home, while he isn’t a bad defender at shortstop by any means, most scouts seem to think he’d be a better fit elsewhere, such as second base, long-term. Luis Garcia Jr, the Nats’ current everyday second baseman, is a free agent after the 2027 season, and if Mike Rizzo and the front office feel confident that Dickerson is prepared to take his spot, it could spell the end of Garcia’s tenure in DC.