Nationals Prospects: It is time to see what Cade Cavalli can do

Despite poor results in Triple-A, the Washington Nationals should give Cade Cavalli a shot in the rotation

The Washington Nationals have a big starting pitching problem right now. Outside of MacKenzie Gore, the rotation has been a big disappointment. Guys like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker have taken a step back. The Nats also need a fifth starter, with Trevor Williams out for the season. Despite poor numbers in AAA, it is time to give Cade Cavalli a shot.

At this point, with the season all but over and Cavalli almost 27 years old, it is just time to see what he can do in the big leagues. Yes, he has poor numbers in Triple-A, but what do the Washington Nationals have to lose.

Fans would much rather see Cavalli then the likes of Shinnosuke Ogasawara. Cavalli still has big stuff and has shown some flashes in AAA. He has been better than his ERA would suggest, even if he has not been amazing.

While Cavalli’s ERA in AAA is at 5.80, he has been very unlucky. His FIP and xFIP suggest he should have an ERA somewhere in the low to mid 4’s. That is still nothing to write home about, but it is better than the surface level numbers. Cavalli’s batting average on balls in play is at an abnormally high .354, which suggests bad luck is at play. A normal BABIP is around .300 or .310.

While he is getting unlucky, there are still things he needs to work on. Cavalli’s 4.35 BB/9 is simply too high. He is not going to have success as a starter with that kind of walk rate. As a bullpen arm, that would be fine, but not as a starter. He has also had a home run problem this year, though that has not been an issue for him in the past.

Despite the poor numbers and the deficiencies we just talked about, there are still things to like in Cavalli’s game. First, he gets a lot of strikeouts. In 49.2 AAA innings, he has 54 punch outs. That is 9.79 K/9, which is a very good mark for a starter.

Cavalli also gets a ton of ground balls, which is a big asset. His 57% ground ball rate in AAA is an elite metric and would be one of the best marks in the majors. Keeping the ball on the ground limits damage and creates quick outs. That high ground ball rate also suggests some of his home run problem is a combination of bad luck and too many mistakes.

A guy who gets that many ground balls should not be allowing 1.27 HR/9. Triple-A tends to be a more hitter friendly league, so maybe that explains some of his woes. Cavalli is coming off one of his best starts in a while, going 5 innings, allowing one earned run with 7 strikeouts. With the All-Star break, now is a good time to call him up.

His stuff was sharp in his outing against a good Red Sox Triple-A team. He touched 99.6 MPH on his fastball and had a deep mix of pitches going. Cavalli walked three guys, but the stuff looked to be at pre-Tommy John levels.

That Tommy John recovery has been a complicated path for Cavalli. After going under the knife in March of 2023, Cavalli missed the basically all of the next two seasons. As expected, Cavalli missed all of 2023. However, he only managed 8.1 innings in 2024 after some set backs. Even if he has had his struggles, it is good to see Cavalli on the mound throwing gas.

Cavalli’s fastball tends to underperform it’s mid to high 90’s velocity due to lackluster shape. This makes his array of secondary pitches more important. Cavalli throws a curveball, a cutter and a changeup. All of them can be nasty at times, it is all about being consistent.

Despite the poor numbers, it is time to see what we have with Cade Cavalli. The 2020 first round pick turns 27 in August, so the clock is ticking. I would much rather get clarity on Cavalli at the big league level than see a soft tosser like Ogasawara. There is nothing to lose and it would give the fans something to watch.

Hopefully we can see Cade in the rotation once we restart the season. If he succeeds, he can be a part of the rotation going forward. However, if he struggles, Cavalli still has the power arm to succeed in a bullpen role. It is time to see what we have with this fireballer.