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Nats Rotation End of April 2025 check-in

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Cavalli doing rehab starts and could be back soon. Photo via Lookout Landing blog

We’re a month into the 2025 full seasons, believe it or not, so its time to bring back last year’s monthly check-in on the rotations, from the MLB to DSL (once they start). I really enjoyed doing this last year, so I thought i’d bring it back. I already did a starter post to talk about the opening day rotations for all five full season teams, so we’ll build on that.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.

Important links for this analysis:

We’ll start with the Majors.

  • Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
  • End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord

Changes since end of last Month: Soroka made one start, had a biceps issue and hit the DL. Instead of bringing up an underperforming AAA starter, the team put Brad Lord into the rotation for the time being. As it turns out, Soroka’s issue is relatively short term (he’s already doing rehab starts and will be back soon), which will send Lord back to the bullpen.

Rotation Observations: Gore leads the league in strikeouts, partly on the back of his opening day gem. Parker has gone from 5th starter competition to “best starter in the rotation” because, of course he has. The big disappointment has been Williams, who has reverted to his 2023 self and sports a 5.70 ERA. His FIP is better, so he’s a little unlucky in his first six starts, but this is not what we wanted when we brought him back. Unfortunately he’s guaranteed two years, so he’ll have a lot of leash. Irvin is chugging along at a 101 ERA+, about what you’d hope for in a 4th starter.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Lord will go back to the bullpen once Soroka is back. Hard to see anything else actionable for a while. Cavalli is doing rehab starts; could they possibly demote Williams to the bullpen? Maybe.

Bullpen comments: Atrocious. 5 of the 8 guys have ERAs north of 7. Only Rutledge and Finnegan are performing. Together, Ferrer, Salazar, Lopez, Sims, and Poche have a combined bWAR of -2.6: that’s hard to do in a month and is a big reason this team is 13-18 instead of 16-15. I’m not sure what else they can do in the short term; there’s exactly 1 healthy 40-man arm in the minors (Brzycky). There are a couple AAA MLFA arms with MLB service time that could be getting the call soon, but they’d have to axe someone off the 40-man first.

AAA Rochester

  • Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
  • End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)

Changes since end of last month: Ogasawara hit the DL, replaced by the promoted Shuman. Choi was awful and got demoted; his starts have been filled in with a combination of Pilkington spot starts and an up-and-back start from Luckham (who pitched 5 shutout innings and then got demoted, weird).

Rotation Observations: Alvarez has been holding his own but has a 1.5 whip and may see his numbers regress to the mean a bit. Lara has been shelled for a 9 ERA and a .368 BAA; not good. Solesky has been mediocre, but at least not as bad as his prior 2023 AAA stint. Shuman’s first two starts have looked great; it’d be a nice story for the oft-injured 27yr old to finally have a solid season. Cavalli’s first rehab start was shaky. Pilkington’s numbers are intriguing: in 13ip he has 23ks .. and 10walks. Tyler Stuart, sitting on the 7 day DL, apparently has an “elbow issue” that the team “hopes” isn’t serious but that he is out “indefinitely” for now. This sounds to me like months of PT, one rehab start and TJ surgery. That’s definitely a loss for this team, assuming he’s out til mid 2026.

Next guy to get Promoted: Obviously its Cavalli. But after that, it’s hard to make a case for any of these AAA starters to be deserving of a 40-man move and/or to be moved up. Lara’s the only other 40-man member but he clearly needs time.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Probably Solesky. He’s a MLFA so there’s little investment and the team may look at him as an innings eater to be moved around as needed instead of a prospect. Or not: they did send him to the AFL last year.

Bullpen comments: Weigel is making a name for himself in AAA and could be pushing for a promotion. If Pilkington’s walks weren’t so out of control he may already be in the majors. The team already has two promotions from AAA: Schoff (who’s pitching well) and Grissom, who just got the call yesterday.

AA Harrisburg

  • Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
  • End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)

Changes since end of last month: Choi demoted/Shuman promoted, Luckham up and back, and Atencio to the DL. Atencio’s starts have been a combination of rehab starts from Soroka and Cavalli plus a couple of bullpen games with Miguel Gomez as the opener.

Rotation Observations: Susana’s AA debut has been solid: 3.91 era, 1.5 whip and 35/17 K/BB in 23 innings. Too many walks of course, but i like that his K rate is so high even as he’s now pitching against AA hitters. Remember; he’s only 21. Luckham’s numbers have looked solid and i’m slightly surprised he didn’t stick in AAA. Choi is probably now in the right level; his ERA is inflated but his peripherals look solid (0.94 whip, .227 BAA, 12/1 K/BB): I’d like to see him over the course of a few months to see if he can earn a AAA spot. Saenz has been hit hard, continuing last year’s AA trend. Shuman cruised through three starts without walking a guy before moved up.

Next guy to get Promoted: Luckham. After that, we’d need another couple of months of performance out of Susana or Choi.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Saenz. His time is running out.

Bullpen comments: Grissom deservedly promoted yesterday. Davila may be next; he’s a MLFA and is 28, too old for AA.

High-A Wilmington

  • Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
  • End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias

Changes since end of last month: Tepper got hurt after 2 starts and went straight to the 60-day DL: can’t find injury news on google, but straight to 60-day usually means something bad. He has been replaced by LR/SS Arias for now, but perhaps not for long b/c Tolman was just promoted.

Rotation Observations: Tepper’s numbers were not good; was he trying to pitch through an injury? Arias’ have been little better and he’ll be the first one replaced. Jackson Kent’s pro debut has gone great (though he got shelled last night). Even with the poor outing he’s got a 30/6 K/BB, a 1.05 whip, a .217 BAA. Love it. Bravo to Cornelio, who is having a stellar start to the season after my constantly harping on why he’s even still in the system after two full seasons of ineptitude. He’s got 31 Ks in 21 innings so far. Our star prospect Clemmey can’t find the plate: he’s got 27/20 K/BB in 18IP right now, which isn’t helping his WHIP or his ERA. Sthele is marginally improving on his numbers from last year but isn’t lighting the world on fire.

Next guy to get Promoted: Probably Cornelio; he’s 25, a bit old for the level, and if he continues to dominate would need a new challenge. Kent and Clemmey are at least a half season in High-A irrespective of performance.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Arias, as per above.

Bullpen comments; Schulz has looked great in the closer role and could be pushing for a move up. Oddly the two guys they’ve already promoted (Young and Huff) had middling High-A stats. Jared Simpson has looked solid. It’s great to see Glavine off the DL after missing most of the last two seasons. On the other end of the spectrum, Marc Davis has gone from a rotation candidate to not being able to find the plate: he has 15 walks in 9 innings.

Low-A/Fredericksburg

  • Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
  • End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut

Changes since end of last month: None, really. Cavalli made a rehab start but then Roman (who was supposed to start that day) came in right afterwards. Tolman made a spot start somewhere along the way. Otherwise, this rotation has been pretty consistent. Bennett slots into Tejeda’s spot today, but that’s probably not a replacement (as per my observations below).

Rotation Observations: First off, none of these starters are going very deep. Polanco has just 18.2 innings in 5 starts. Tejeda has 16 ip in 4 starts. But they’re still the starters. Polanco and Tejeda both have solid looking numbers: sub 4 ERAs, decent whips, solid BAAs. Both Meckley and Garcia have struggled with control and are walking nearly a guy an inning. Roman is the low man on the totem pole right now: 12.37 ERA and a 2.2 whip.

Next guy to get Promoted: Polanco is the oldest of these starters but doesn’t have the swing and miss stuff you’d want to see to show he’s overpowering the league. Bennett, if he shows out healthy, probably is moved up pretty quickly. He needs to get to AA by season’s end honestly.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Roman isn’t cutting it and likely Bennett is taking his spot.

Bullpen comments: There’s several bullpen arms in Fburg who are overpowering the competition: Bloebaum, Amaral, and converted infielder Mejia all have huge K/9 rates right now. Cranz has a .161 BAA in the closer role but is walking nearly a guy an inning. Mejia is pitching well enough to get save opportunities, a good sign for his conversion.

That’s it for April 2025. Lots of intriguing updates after diving into the stats for the month.