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Nats Rotations End of May 2025 check-in

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How hurt is Susana? Photo Washington Post

We’re two months into the 2025 full seasons, so here’s my rotations/pitching staff deep-dives for the month.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.

Important links for this analysis:

We’ll start with the Majors.

  • Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
  • End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
  • End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)

Changes since end of last Month: Soroka came off D/L, sent Lord back to the bullpen.

Rotation Observations: We have an ace (Gore), we have a #4 starter (Irvin), and we have three guys pitching their way out of the rotation (Parker, Williams, Soroka). Soroka gets a pass b/c he’s guaranteed $8M. Williams gets a pass (for now) because he’s guaranteed even more. Parker Is just looking hittable right now. His best start in the last month was a 5.1 IP 3run effort against Atlanta; otherwise every one of his outings is a bunch of runs year, fail to get out of the 5th, tax the bullpen, etc. Every time Cavalli looks unhittable in AAA, Parker is one step closer to a demotion.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Parker, as per above.

Bullpen comments: The team just cut ties with Lopez ($3M off-season signing) after jettisoning Sims ($3M) and Poche ($1.4M) earlier in the month. All money well spent. I think its safe to say Rizzo’s “throw money at a bunch of FA relievers” strategy for the 2025 bullpen has officially failed. On the bright side Finnegan has looked solid, Henry has been amazing, and five of the eight bullpen arms are home grown. Finally.

AAA Rochester

  • Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
  • End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
  • End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson

Changes since end of last month: Lara hit the D/L, and basically saw his starts picked up by Cavalli and then eventually MLFA signing Sampson. Cavalli ended his rehab stint and was optioned.

Rotation Observations: Alvarez, Shuman, and Sampson all had a full month in the rotation, and were all mediocre to bad. ERAs in the 5-6s, Whips in the 1.5 range. Solesky has improved from last month and has earned himself another month in the AAA rotation. Cavalli’s back; in 4 May starts as he builds up arm strength going about 4IP each, he’s got 25/6 K/BB in 16 IP. Once he’s stretched out someone’s making way in the majors. They now have 3 starters on the DL (Stuart, Ogasawara, Lara), all of whom would be preferred to most of this crew.

Next guy to get Promoted: Cavalli as per above.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sampson; he’s a 33yr old MLFA who will either push for a MLB promotion or exercise whatever opt-out is inevitably in his contract.

Bullpen comments: There’s just nobody in the AAA bullpen right now pushing for a promotion; they’ve moved up Rutledge, Henry, and Brzycky at this point and they seem to have exhausted internal options for fixing the MLB bullpen.

AA Harrisburg

  • Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
  • End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
  • End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)

Changes since end of last month: The biggest news of the month is Susana going down with a Grade 1 UCL sprain. Grade 1 is supposed to be mild, with “microscopic tears” or a “slight stretch.” We’ll have to see what happens next. Susana and Soroka’s rehab starts have been replaced with the promoted Cornelio and the MLFA signing Conley (with rubber-armed Gomez doing a slew of spot starts/openers).

Rotation Observations: the AA rotation looks solid. Choi had a great month: 1.65 ERA, 1.06 WHIP. Maybe he’s got the confidence to return to AAA. Luckham has been solid but not as dominant in the K/9 range. Cornelio’s rise to AA has been merited and he’s holding his own so far, to my surprise after complaining about him for years. Conley, a 30yr old signed from a Mexican team, hasn’t been bad. The only guy still struggling in Saenz, same as last month.

Next guy to get Promoted: Choi.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Saenz

Bullpen comments: Powell didn’t give up a run last month. Peterson was excellent and got promoted mid-month. Cuevas has really shined since moving to the pen. Davila remains too old for AA and needs to get moved to AAA. Maybe our MLB bullpen solutions are actually a bunch of guys dealing in AA right now.

High-A Wilmington

  • Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
  • End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
  • End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts

Changes since end of last month: Cornelio moved up, and the team have a slew of guys spot starts: 10 different players got a start in May for this team while they waited for Sykora and some stability.

Rotation Observations: Clemmey had a great month; 1.59 ERA, a ton of Ks, but too many walks. If he can get his walks down he may be a 19yr old in AA. Stuart’s rehab has gone well; he may force a bump in AAA soon. Kent has been solid, if a little unlucky. Sykora’s High-A debut has been laughably good: 2 starts, 8IP, 15Ks, 2 hits. Bennett made 3 starts to open the month, but now hasn’t pitched since May 11th; uh-oh. Sthele was the worst full-time starter, though some of their SS/LR types (Arias and Caceres) were awful.

Next guy to get Promoted: Sykora. There’s zero use of having a guy with a 16 K/9 rate stay in a-ball for any longer than he needs to. Clemmey after that; i don’t care how young he is.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sthele

Bullpen comments; Amaral had a nice month. Not much else to report; when most of your best WHIPs belong to starters, it tells you your pen needs work.

Low-A/Fredericksburg

  • Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
  • End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
  • End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett, Sykora

Changes since end of last month: Again, none really. A couple of these guys had their starts pushed or did tandem starts to give bigger names a couple of starts, but the Low-A rotation remains basically the same from opening day.

Rotation Observations: Tejeda and Polanco looking good. Solid months, ERAs in the 3s, good K/BB rates. Polanco looked the best in terms of keeping runners off base. Garcia had a nice ERA but had 17 walks in 25IP; that’s got to improve. Meckley had more walks than Ks and had his turn skipped at the last day of the month, so maybe something’s there. Roman was the real struggle for the month, with an ERA nearly 9.

Next guy to get Promoted: Polanco, as he was last month.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Roman, as he was last month.

Bullpen comments: Last month’s highlights have all been promoted: Bloebaum, Amaral, Mejia. Good for the team to push these guys and not was their bullets in low-A. Cranz (finally) had a good month: 9ip, 2hits, 14/3 K/BB. Bruni had 22Ks and 11 walks in 11 innings; interesting.—

FCL/Rookie

  • Opening day: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Rehab starts
  • End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar

Changes since end of last month: This is the first month of the FCL; no real major changes occurred in the first month other than to see a bunch of rehabbers return home.

Rotation Observations: At the end of last year, the rotation was Sanchez, Romero, Colon, Portorreal, and Moreno. Sanchez went straight to Low-A’s full season DL, Romero is on the Low-A DL but doing rehab starts in FCL, Moreno is still in FCL but hasn’t pitched an inning since 2023, and Colon is in the FCL bullpen putting up a 12 ERA so far, so only Portorreal returns.

So far in 2025, Feliz (a 23IFA) is doing great: 24/4 K/BB in 5 starts with a near 3.00 ERA. Lunar (a 24IFA for a bonus amount small enough not to be reported) is doing great: sub 3.00 ERA but more importantly he earned his way off the island. Portorreal is struggling (2.00 whip), as is Farias (13 walks in 11 innings). Johnson is way too old to be here (age 23) and it shows: in 18IP so far he’s got a 21/3 K/BB and has given up just 9 hits and one run.

Next guy to get Promoted: Johnson.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Farias. He’s 22 and can’t find the plate. Put him in the pen and give one of these over-performing relievers a shot.

Bullpen comments: We talked about Johnson; Kane (a 23-yr old MLFA) needs to move up for the challenge as well; zero runs allowed during May.

That’s it for May 2025. Lots of intriguing updates after diving into the stats for the month.