We introduced a new segment this year, based on our team having the 1st overall pick (which is abbreviated “1-1” meaning 1st round, 1st pick) of the 2025 draft. Since we’ll get our choice of players for the first time in a generation. I’m putting in periodic updates about the candidates to go 1st overall.
Here’s a one-month check-in on the top College candidates, who now have four weeks worth of competition, along with links for the top prep candidates in the mix.
In early March, Keith Law posted his first look at the top candidates and included a couple of new names at the top that we’ll add to the names we looked at in our first of this series two weeks ago.
Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration
- Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M. TAMU stats & Box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State. FSU stats & box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara. UCSB stats & box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State. OSU stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Cam Canarella, CF, Clemson. Clemson stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Tennessee stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee. Tennessee stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK). MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA). MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX). MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
Here’s some commentary:
- LaViolette: One month in, and he’s still only hitting .235. His OBP is ok (.414) and his Slugging solid (.515). He had a great Friday night against New Mexico State last weekend, but took o-fers in mid-week games against UTSA and Texas-Southern, which is an abomination. Mid-week starters are like the 4th or 5th starters, and UTSA/Texas-Southern aren’t exactly SEC quality opponents. He’s playing his way, not only out of the 1-1 conversation, but maybe even out of the top 10.
- Arnold: After two solid games to open the season, he gave up 2 runs in 5IP against the non-powerhouse Georgetown Hoyas on 2/28, then hasn’t pitched since. He was scratched against Lipscomb with “illness” for his 3/7 start. At least it wasn’t b/c of an arm issue. We’ll see how he bounces back as they open ACC play against Boston College next Friday. BC just hammered UVA, so they’ll be an interesting out.
- Bremner: he bounced back after two middling starts to shut down Fresno State with 7ip, 3hits, 1run, but only 4Ks. He then gave up three runs to Cal State Northridge, not an impressive outing. He needs to show some 7ip, 3hit, 10k, 0BB outings and fast if he wants to be a top 10 draft pick.
- Arquette got the Keith Law Treatment, whose TL/DR summary is this: “he’s too big to play SS, struggled when i saw him, but he’s probably the best college hitter right now.” Through 4 weeks of play, he’s sporting the healthy slash line of .400/.492/.640. And he’s doing it against what probably is the toughest early season schedule out there as Oregon State embarks on its non-affiliated life post PAC-12.
- Canarella has decent if not sparkling stats so far. .288/.431/.462. Not a ton of power/XBH so far (just 1 HR). He was more well regarded last year and isn’t re-pushing upwards to regain his top spot so far.
- Doyle is pushing his name upwards so far this year. Through 4 starts, he’s got “oversized little leaguer” stats right now. 20.1 IP, 6 hits, 1 run given up for a 0.44 ERA. But he’s got a 47/5 K/BB ratio in those 20.1 IP, which means that of the 61 batters he’s retired thus far, 47 have been by whiff. Wow. His 4 opponents: Hofstra, Samford, Oklahoma State, and St. Bonaventure. Ok so not the greatest competition, but against OK State he still had 9Ks in 4 1/3rd IP.
- Kilen has popped up on radars b/c of silly stats he’s putting up in Tennessee’s early season. He’s got an obscene slash line right now of .463/.589/1.093 slugging for an OPS figure north of 1.600. And he’s not even the biggest OPS figure on his team. He’s got 8 homers in 16 games to go with a ton of other XBHs. Is he a top prospect? He’s an undersized 2B with a hot start; we’ll see if he can keep things going.
- Holliday has nothing new that I can find; its March so his HS season probably hasn’t started yet, but his HS stats would be useless anyway.
- Hernandez; same as Holliday. All we can hope for is a scouting trip like what Law posted for Cunning ham.
- Cunningham had a snippet in Law’s latest scouting notebook. TL/DR: “he’s probably not even 5’9″, has almost no power but has a great bat, and is more like a mid-1st rounder.” We may not bother covering him much further given who else is here and since we’re only projecting the best possible 1-1 candidate. A 5’8″ prep SS isn’t going 1-1.
Quick Tangent: did you see that George Mason scored TWENTY-THREE runs in the 2nd inning of their mid-week game against Holy Cross? 23 runs. Here’s the box score. The sequence of events is actually pretty hilarious. The inning included:
- Eight (8) walks
- Five (5) HBP
- Five (5) infield hits, bunts, or fielders choices
- Eight (8) hits that left the infield, several of which were bases-clearing doubles.
Someone on GMU also, in a move that probably had their coach screaming, STOLE THIRD BASE while up 13 in the inning. I’m surprised there weren’t more than 5 HBP.
Last funny item from the box score: Attendance: 25. Those Patriot fans really come out to support the team!
So, who’s in the lead to go 1-1? I’m liking what i’m seeing out of Doyle. Arquette maintaining his production. Want to see what happens with Arnold. Maybe Holliday is getting back in the mix just by virtue of the likes of LaViolette and Bremner falling.