Here’s our eighth check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. This week summarizes the post season play for our top prospects (conference tourneys, regionals, and super regionals) and talks about the mocks and other draft content that’s popped up lately. High Schoolers are done, with zero new news to report about the top prep candidates.
Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:
- Keith Law at the Athletic released his 2025 Draft board top 100 ranking on 5/21/25. He ranks them Holliday, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Houston. He has Hernandez all the way down at #21.
- Law then held a Chat on May 22nd where we got his thoughts on some 1-1 related stuff.
- ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted his latest mock draft on 5/28/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Arquette, and Willits. He has Hernandez falling to #9, but also admits he could go anywhere inbetween.
- Baseball America released their 2025 Draft Top 500, adding another 100 names from their April edition. This is probably the last draft board they’ll release. They’ve updated their ranks, which i’ve cross-correlated in the player block below. They now go Holliday, Hernandez, Willits, Arquette, Arnold.
- MLBPipeline updated their Draft board on 5/28/25, expanding it to 200. There’s been significant movement in the top 10, with Anderson flying up the board from #9 a month ago to #3 now. Top 5: Holliday, Hernandez, Anderson, Arnold, Willits. As with the BA update, all the MLB ranks below are updated to be current.
- MLBPiepline’s Jim Callis came out with a new mock draft on 5/29/25: he claims the Nats are following 7-8 players but also seems confident with Holliday at 1-1. His top 5: Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Arnold, Willits.
- MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo then popped up with his latest mock on 6/5/25 with a big shocker at the top: He thinks Washington is now going LSU’s Anderson 1-1. top 5: Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Arnold. Very college heavy, all four major D1 players off board by 5th pick. Interesting.
Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:
- Fangraphs Standard Hitting, Advanced Hitting
- Fangraphs Standard Pitching, Advanced Pitching
- Baseball-Reference College Home Page
- NCAA Division 1 Baseball Stats Home Page
- D1Baseball.com Stats Home Page
- D1Baseball.com Conference tournament Central
Draft Boards (not mocks): these are major shops Prospect Ranking lists, usually with Scouting reports, video, tool grades, etc.
- MLBpipeline 5/29/25, expanded top 200 Draft Board. 5/29/25
- Baseball America top 500 updated 5/28/25.
- Keith Law Top 100 Big Board 5/22/25
Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration
- Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State. FSU stats & box Scores, MLB (#4), BA (#5), PL (#1)
- Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State. OSU stats & box scores, MLB (#6), BA (#4), PL (#7)
- Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Tenn stats & box scores, MLB (#9), BA (#8), PL (#10+)
- Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU. LSU Stats & box scores, MLB (#3), BA (#6), PL (#10+)
Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:
- Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK). MLB (#1), BA (#1), ProspectsLive (#4)
- Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA). MLB (#2), BA (#2), ProspectsLive (#2)
- Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb HS (OK). MLB (#5), BA (#3), ProspectsLive (#9)
Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running; all four had significant post season stats to discuss:
- Arnold got knocked around a bit by Duke in the ACC tournament ( 5ip, 5runs), then got the win against Mississippi State with a 7ip 13K 119 pitch appearance in the Regionals. FSU won their regional, so we got one last start from Arnold in the super regional losing effort: 6.2, 1R, 6 hits, 9/1 K/BB on 113 pitches. Can’t ask for much more than that.
- Arquette had two weeks off thanks to Oregon State’s lack of a conference tournament, then went to town in the Regional, going 9-23 with a homer in the finale as OSU got stretched as a regional host but advanced. In the super regional: 5-13 with a walk and a bunch of runs scored; not bad.
- Doyle had an abbreviated start in the SEC tournament against Texas, going just 3.2 and giving up 6 hits/4 runs. He needed 79 pitches to not even get out of the 4th. Then in regionals, Tennessee threw him in the first game oddly, where he predictably dominated Miami of Ohio with 11Ks over 6.2 innings for the win. Ok, so far so good … but then Tennessee puts him BACK on the mound in the regional final to close it out and he’s throwing 99 on two days rest in basically the highest leverage situation he’s ever faced as a player. Not. Good. I’d be scared to death he just did serious arm damage to himself. He’ll get another start in four days. Finally in the Super Regional he had to go against Arkansas, a team that shelled him earlier in the year … and he got hit again in his final start: 3.2 5h 5r, 2WP, 1HBP, and yanked in the 4th. Not a great look for evaluators getting their final look at the guy, and I think his chances of going 1-1 are finished.
- Anderson got the start in the SEC tournament opener and dominated Texas A&M, 6ip, 12Ks and got lifted with just 84 pitches. Then in the regional he went game 2 against Dallas Baptist and threw an absolute gem: 7ip, 4hits, 0 runs 11/2 K/BB on 106 pitches. In the super Regional game one, Anderson got hit: 7r (6 earned) on 9 hits in 7ip .. however its worth noting that LSU was up 10-1 by the time Anderson gave up these runs. It’s entirely possible he just cruised through the last two innings to give the bullpen a break. He’s the only one of these players to make to Omaha.
Prep kids:
- Holliday: season complete.
- Hernandez: season complete.
- Willits: season complete.
The Race for 1-1 status: I still think we’re on Holliday. Anderson has clearly supplanted both Arnold and Doyle in the “big three college lefties” ranking, but I don’t think its enough to get past Holliday.
So my current top 5 prediction: Holliday, Anderson, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.