The anatomy of the Washington Nationals epic June swoon

The Nationals had a brutal month of June. I broke down how things went off the rails for Davey Martinez and company

When the month of June started, there was a lot of optimism surrounding the Washington Nationals. They had gone 15-12 in May and were coming off a west coast trip where they won series against the Mariners and Diamondbacks, both quality opponents. Things were looking up for the 28-30 Nationals.

The Optimism is Gone:

Instead of building off this momentum, the Nats had one of their worst months in team history. The optimism in the fanbase has quickly turned into a variety of emotions. There was anger, confusion, but more than anything, there was a realization that the plan was not working.

For me, the defining moment came following the Nationals loss to the Marlins on June 14th. Davey Martinez snapped in his press conference, going on an impassioned rant, where he said the Nationals problems are never on coaching.

This felt like a real turning point and a moment that put a lot of heat on the organization. In the midst of what would become an 11 game losing streak, it felt like every day there was a new national columnist coming out to opine on the state of the Nationals rebuild. Of those pieces, one that really summed up the Nationals struggles well was a June 16th piece by Chelsea Janes.

In that moment where Davey Martinez threw his players under the bus after a seventh straight loss, a lot of people realized that everything is not ok with the Washington Nationals.

The Epic Losing Streak:

While the losing streak started against the Rangers and Mets, the humiliation did not really start until the Nats came home to play the Marlins and Rockies. Sure, the Nats bats were quiet in those first five losses, scoring nine runs in five games. However, they were facing some high level pitching and a Mets team that was the best in baseball at the time.

They were coming home to face the Marlins and Rockies. Surely, the Nats were going to get going and right the ship. They were 30-38 heading into the Marlins series, but hey they were facing two of the worst teams in baseball at home. If they could go 5-2 against this weaker opposition, they would be sitting at 35-40. That would be right in line with what fans would have expected heading into the season.

However, the Nats did not go 5-2, they ended up going 1-6, sending their season into a tailspin. It felt like the Nationals would find new ways to lose every night. Sometimes the offense would get going and score nine runs. However, when the offense performed, the pitching always found a way to blow it. When the good performances from the likes of MacKenzie Gore, the bats would go cold. Then there were nights where the bullpen caused the teams demise.

It was a vicious cycle the Nationals could not break out of. They ended up losing 11 games in a row, the second most franchise history. It was an ugly stretch that made the fanbase as angry as I can ever remember. The Nationals fanbase is a forgiving one compared to others, but it became a hornets nest of anger during that losing streak.

Fans have mostly been patient and understanding throughout this rebuild. A recent World Series title will help soften the blow of all the losses. However, fans expected progress this season. They did not expect a championship or even a playoff berth, they just expected progress. Instead we are seeing signs of regression, which is scary for a rebuild that is 4.5 seasons deep now.

Breaking Down the Numbers:

With such a terrible month, it is important to break down why it happened. There is no better way of doing that than looking at the stats. The stats do not paint a pretty picture for the Nats in June.

Offensively, they struggled, especially early in the month. In their first 10 games of the month, the Nationals only managed 18 runs. That is an ugly number which made winning games nearly impossible unless the starting pitcher was masterful.

Overall, the Nats scored 3.92 runs per game in June. A couple big performances late in the month against the Padres and Angels helped bring that number up. The team OPS in June was .685, well below the .733 mark they produced in May.

It seemed like a return to their 2024 ways. They walked and slugged less, but also did not strike out as much. The Nats seem to have abandoned the sell out for power approach we saw earlier in the season. While guys like James Wood and CJ Abrams remained excellent, the Nats did not get enough out of their supporting cast offensively.

The pitching was also a struggle for the Nationals this month. Their team ERA of 4.93 was quite high. However, that number is lower than the 5.27 mark they pitched to in April and not that far off their May ERA of 4.79. Pitching has been a pretty consistent problem for the Nats all season long. The Nats allowed 5.19 runs per game in June.

After showing signs of life, especially in late May, the Nats bullpen struggled again in June. They pitched to a 5.42 ERA on the month. Guys like Cole Henry and Jackson Rutledge hit a bit of a wall this month, especially Rutledge. Brad Lord and Kyle Finnegan were both excellent, pitching to sub-3 ERA’s. Lord was especially good, with a 1.04 ERA in 13 outings this month.

A lot of the trends from months past have continued on the pitching side of things. The rotation lacks a real number 2 starter behind MacKenzie Gore and the bullpen is a bit of a mess. One positive thing about this month was Michael Soroka. While he is not the two starter of the future, he showed he could either be a future mid rotation guy for the Nats or a big time trade piece. He pitched to a 3.49 ERA with impressive underlying numbers in June.

Signs of Hope:

Overall, this has been a pretty pessimistic article. They went 7-19, so there is only so much optimism you can deliver. However, the Nats did show some signs of life in their last west coast trip. After finally snapping their 11 game losing streak thanks to an extra inning walk off homer by James Wood, the Nats showed some life.

A 4-5 road trip does not sound amazing, but the Nats played well against high quality opponents. They dropped ²⁄₃ to the Dodgers and Padres before winning their first series of the month against the Angels.

They had a couple off nights during that trip, but they played a much better brand of baseball. The scrappiness that had been missing for a while returned. They were running the bases better and having solid at bats most nights. It looked more like the team we saw in April and May. Not an amazing team, but a respectable squad.

This month probably destroyed any chance the Nats had of being .500, but there is still plenty to play for. Hopefully, the Nats can get hot and get to around 75 wins, which is what I predicted them to have heading into the season.

They are on pace to win fewer games than the past two years where they won 71 games. However, it looks like the worst stretch of the season is now behind them and they are back to playing decent ball. They need to keep it up because regressing in the win column would be simply unacceptable and a major indictment on the Nationals hierarchy.