Washington Nationals pitchers are throwing their bad fastballs way too much
The Washington Nationals achilles heel this season has been their pitching staff. While the offense has been maddeningly inconsistent, as a whole, the unit has actually improved from last year. The team OPS is up from .684 to .700, mainly due to an increase in the teams power production. However, they have been let down by their pitching staff. The pitching staff is both low on talent and using bad strategies.
The Results Are Ugly:
Before we dive into some of the nitty gritty stuff, we need to go over the results, and they are ugly. On the season, Washington Nationals pitchers have a 5.22 ERA. That is the second worst mark in all of baseball, only behind the Rockies, who are both historically bad and play at altitude.
The worst offenders have been the relief pitchers. As most Nationals fans are aware, the team has the worst bullpen in all of baseball. The teams 5.72 bullpen ERA is by far the worst in baseball. The next worst bullpen is the A’s, who have a 5.27 ERA. They also have the second fewest strikeouts of any bullpen, showing a lack of swing and miss stuff.
The pitching staff is a brutal combination of wild and hittable. They have allowed the second most hits and have hit the most batters in all of baseball. It has been really ugly, and a bit unexpected after last season.
Last year, the pitching staff was the best part of the team. Their 4.30 team ERA was not anything to write home about, but it was solid. Guys like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker looked like reliable home grown starters who could give the Nats reliable innings.
However, we have seen some heavy regression from the starting rotation as well. Some of the flaws in guys like Irvin and Parker have been exposed. With that, the Nats do not have a reliable starter behind MacKenzie Gore, who has been struggling lately himself. Now we will dive into some of the bigger picture flaws.
Too Many Fastballs:
Simply put, the Nationals are throwing too many fastballs. If you combine four-seamers and sinkers, no team throws more fastballs than the Washington Nationals. The Nats are throwing fastballs 56.4% while being bottom 10 in fastball velocity. Here is an interesting article from earlier in the season about this.
The Mariners are the team that throws the second most fastballs, but their heaters have the second hardest average velocity in baseball. They are pounding fastballs, but they are doing it because their pitchers have good fastballs. The Mariners pitchers are doing a good job mixing up four-seamers and sinkers, while the Nats are more four-seam heavy.
For example, Mitchell Parker does not have a good enough four-seam fastball to be throwing it over 55% of the time. It only gets a 10.3% whiff rate and batters are hitting .271 against the pitch. Yet Parker is just pumping that four-seamer in the zone constantly.
Jake Irvin is another guy who is just pounding fastballs in the zone. Despite losing over a tick of velocity, he is still throwing fastballs over 50% of the time. This is just not smart pitching strategy from Jim Hickey and Sean Doolittle.
Some guys should be pounding fastballs, but not guys like Irvin and Parker. They are finesse pitchers who do not have overpowering velocity. Guys like Brad Lord and Jose A Ferrer throw a lot of fastballs, but they have good fastballs.
For Lord to reach his ceiling, he will need a more reliable secondary pitch, but for now he does not have one. That means he has to lean on his plus fastball, which he throws over 70% of the time. The raw fastball usage is a problem, but it is not the only one when it comes to pitch usage.
Not Enough Sliders:
In recent years, sliders have become the breaking ball of choice for most pitchers. They are used way more than curveballs by most teams. However, the Nationals remain curveball heavy and slider light.
The Nationals rank 25th in slider usage while being 6th in curveball usage. This is just another sign of the Nationals being behind the times. Sliders tend to be preferred to curveballs because they have harder, later break. They are tougher to see out of the hand.
However, guys like Irvin and Parker are throwing big, loopy curveballs that get crushed because they are easier to see out of the hand. Bumping up slider usage would be very helpful for both of those guys.
It is not a coincidence that MacKenzie Gore had his worst month of the season when he threw the fewest amount of sliders and second most four-seam fastballs. That slider was an overwhelming weapon for Gore against left handed pitching early in the season, but he has been getting away from it lately.
Another big problem is the lack of bite on these breaking pitches. In April, Gore’s curveball averaged 82 MPH and was getting a ton of whiffs. However, that velocity on the hook has fallen to 80.7 MPH and the whiffs are way down.
That lack of bite on Nats breaking pitches can be measured in the numbers. Nats sliders are the second slowest in all of baseball. That gives hitters more time to react and identify that spin.
An Overhaul Is Needed:
So why is all of this happening? Are the Nationals actively telling their pitchers to be fastball heavy? Well, looking at the data, it sure seems that way. This looks like a pitching strategy that Sean Doolittle and Jim Hickey want to implement.
Assuming that is the case, it is yet another example of bad coaching letting this team down. Most modern organizations are trying to limit fastball use, but the Nationals are throwing more than ever.
It is unclear why they slider usage and velocity is so low as well. Do the pitchers just have a hard time throwing sliders or are they be coached out of throwing them? With all the data out there, it is easier to teach guys new pitches than ever before. Pitchers go to labs to tweak their mix and add filthy new sliders all the time. We saw that with MacKenzie Gore this season. However, not enough of these guys are optimizing their pitch usage.
This is yet another reason why we need a full scale cleaning of the house. There are so many examples of this coaching staff just not being good at their jobs. This is just another case of that. The Washington Nationals need to catch up to the modern times when it comes to pitch usage.