The Washington Nationals need to go big game hunting for a free agent starter

It is clear that the Washington Nationals need a top of the rotation arm to compliment MacKenzie Gore

MacKenzie Gore has blossomed into the ace Nationals fans have always wanted him to be. He leads all of baseball in strikeouts and is learning to pitch through adversity. For more on Gore, MLB Network did a great breakdown on him after his start yesterday. However, it is becoming clear that the Gore needs a true running mate in the Nationals rotation.

Nobody After Gore:

After Gore, the rest of the Nats rotation consists of guys who should be in the back of a rotation, if they belong at all. Gore is now the only starter on the Nats with a sub-4 ERA. That is why the Nationals rotation ERA of 4.45 is 25th in baseball despite getting ace level production from Gore.

The reason for this is clear. The Nationals don’t have another guy with high end stuff. Jake Irvin is a nice arm to have in the back end of a rotation. He goes deep into games and really competes. However, he is the Nationals number 2 starter right now. With an ERA over 4 and his K/9 below 6, Irvin does not have the stuff to be a number 2 starter.

Michael Soroka has shown flashes, but has not put it all together in one start. Guys like Mitchell Parker and Trevor Williams have also really struggled in the back of the rotation. So how should the Nationals go about finding that running mate for Gore?

Internal Options:

The Washington Nationals do have some internal options they could look turn to. Cade Cavalli has always had the stuff to compete at the top of a rotation. However, with just one big league start at 26, you have to question his reliability. He has been hurt for the better part of two years now and has lost a lot of time to develop. It would be unwise to hope he becomes the guy. After all, hope is not a strategy.

While Josiah Gray was an All-Star in 2023, I just don’t see him as a top of the rotation arm. Even in that 2023 season, he had an ERA of 3.91 and a FIP of 4.93. That is not good enough production for a number 2 starter.

The best internal option is also the youngest. While 21 year old Travis Sykora is still only in High-A, he is storming his way through the lower minors. In 26 career professional starts, Sykora has an ERA of 1.99 with 167 strikeouts in 104 innings. He has the look of a future frontline starter. However, the issue is timing.

Sykora is not going to be in the big leagues until the middle of next season at the earliest. When he gets there, it is also fair to expect some growing pains from such a young arm. However, the Nationals need a high end arm now. Gore is a free agent after the 2027 season, so the Nats can’t wait around forever. That is why they need to go big game hunting for a top of the rotation arm.

Big Game Hunting:

There are three top end arms that I think would be real needle movers for the Nationals, but it would require Mark Lerner to splash the cash. It seems doubtful that they are willing to do what it takes, but in this exercise, I am going to assume they finally open their wallets. The big three for me are Framber Valdez, Michael King, and Dylan Cease.

Despite having an ERA of 4.72 right now, Cease is probably my favorite option. All his underlying numbers are very strong. He is striking out more guys than ever and his FIP sits at 3.21. The high ERA looks like it is simply bad luck.

That ERA could mean that Cease would be cheaper than he otherwise would have been. This would be an unbelievable opportunity for the Nats. We saw what Cease could do at Nationals Park when he threw a no-hitter last year. He has electric stuff and would be a great right handed compliment to Gore.

The next guy on the list is the oldest, but most proven commodity in Framber Valdez. Valdez has been a fixture at the top of the Astros rotation since 2020. Since the 2020 season, Valdez has an ERA of 3.12 in 866 innings. He is a veteran presence, turning 32 this offseason, but he is as good as ever.

Framber leads all of baseball in innings so far at 85 and is going over 6.5 innings per start. He does this with a ground ball heavy approach that should age well. Valdez relies on soft contact rather than blowing guys away with stuff. He could be a very interesting southpaw to compliment Gore at the top of the rotation.

The last option is the least proven one and the riskiest in Michael King. Right now he is out with a pinched nerve in his shoulder, which is scary but could take some dollars off his next contract.

King dominated in his first season as a full time starter last year with a 2.95 ERA in 173.2 innings. He was on track to have a similar season with a 2.59 ERA and similar underlying numbers before his injury. A late bloomer, King has really blossomed since coming to San Diego in the second Juan Soto trade.

He was an effective swing man with the Yankees, but has taken his game to the next level out west. King is one of those guys with ridiculous movement on everything he throws. His sinker and changeup are tailing like crazy, while his sweeper is buzzing away from right handed hitters. He is a very tough at bat and the numbers show that.

If the Nationals want to get to that next level, they need to do everything they can to get one of these guys to pair with Gore at the top of the rotation. Once Sykora joins them, this could be a three headed monster like the one we saw in 2019 that propelled the Nats to the World Series.

Right now, Gore is the only guy on the staff with truly elite stuff. If you want to go deep into October, you need multiple high octane guys at the top of the rotation. We saw this in 2019, and really throughout baseball history. MacKenzie Gore needs a running mate, but will the Lerner’s do what it takes to get him one?