The Trevor Williams contract is not looking like a good piece of business for the Nationals
When Trevor Williams returned to the Nationals on a 2-year $14 million deal, there were some lingering doubts. Yes, Williams was brilliant in 2024, but he only made 13 starts. Was that a new Trevor Williams, or just a flash in the pan. After all, Williams had a 5.55 ERA in 2023. Who was the real Trevor Williams? Clearly the Nationals thought the truth was closer to the 2024 version.
However, he has looked far closer to the 2023 Trevor Williams so far. Williams has a 6.03 ERA in 12 starts and is averaging just over 4.5 innings a start. It has been ugly to watch. The right handers already low velocity has dropped yet another tick. In 2024, he was averaging 88.6 MPH on the fastball. This year he is averaging 87.3.
Soft tossers like Williams have such a small margin for error. Hitters have that extra tick to catch up to his fastball. That is why it is so damaging for him to lose even more velocity. You can see it in the results. Last season, Williams fastball had just enough juice for his command and deception to play. Hitters actually struggled against his 88-89 MPH fastballs last year, hitting .202. This year, batters are hitting .333 against Williams slower fastball.
Mike Rizzo should have seen regression and velocity loss coming with Williams. Since 2021, Williams has lost steam on his heater every year. He is also a wildly inconsistent pitcher. Williams has scattered a few good seasons into his long career, but they are almost always followed up by clunkers. We saw this inconsistency in his first two years in DC. It would have been the smart move to thank Trevor for his wonderful 2024, but tell him to look for greener pastures elsewhere.
With his performance and inability to eat innings, his rotation spot should be in jeopardy. Cade Cavalli is getting stronger each start in AAA, and looks like he could give the Nats better results than Williams. Brad Lord could also be a rotation solution. It would be tough on Lord to keep shuffling him back and forth between the rotation and bullpen though.
One good thing about Williams is that he has experience and success in a long relief role. That is how he got his first contract with the Nats. In 2022, Williams was brilliant in a swing man role. He threw 89.2 innings across 30 outings, nine of them starts. Williams pitched to a 3.21 ERA that year and was a big part of the Mets 101 win team that year.
In shorter bursts, hopefully Williams could find some more velocity to make his fastball more effective. Williams has command and deception, so he does not need to throw 95 to be successful. All he needs to do is live closer to 90.
However, there are a couple things you could point to that suggest Williams could turn it around. He has gotten very unlucky this season. His 6.03 ERA is well above his 3.93 FIP and 3.94 xERA. Maybe that suggests a turnaround, but given where his stuff is right now, I am a bit skeptical.
Mike Rizzo has worked in baseball for a long time and has made a lot of great moves. He should have known better than to reward an inconsistent soft tosser like Williams for 13 starts. Everyone knew there was at least a chance that he would come crashing down to earth, and that is exactly what has happened.
He is taking up a rotation spot that could be occupied by a youngster. It would have been one thing if it was a one year deal, but it was not, Williams will be taking up a roster spot in 2026, a year where the Nationals should be pushing for a wild card spot.