So, heading into the 2023 draft, a slew of the Nats’ top prospect talents were outfielders. Look at any prospect ranking list for our system and you’ll see top 10 players like Wood, Hassell, Green, Vaquero, etc. I was on board early pining for Skenes as our pick at 1-2 instead of Crews, thinking that, “hey we have a lot of top-end OF talent” and, also, “hey we need some starter prospects.” Alas it was not meant to be; Skenes blew up in the CWS and Pittsburgh popped him 1-1.
So we went and drafted Crews in the 1st, plus Pinckney in the 4th and Nunez in the 14th.
Where the heck are all these guys going to play?
Here’s a quick look at the OF depth chart thanks to the Big Board, with what it looks like now and what it may look like in 2024 with this influx of new talent.
Right now, listing guys in order LF/CF/RF and then backups/DHs
- AAA: Rutherford, Hill, Alu, with Reyes and Blankenhorn as backups.
Most of these guys are MLFAs signed either in 2022 or 2023. Hill just got DFA’d off the 40-man. Alu is kind of a utility guy who’s filling in in the OF right now. Mazara just got released. Rutherford is crushing the ball this season, but I wonder if any of these guys are really in the long term plans for the team. I could see a couple of them getting call-ups post-trade deadline if we move some players and need some bodies (Alu since he’s on the 40-man, probably Rutherford too b/c he’s earned it). But for 2024, lots of room here.
- AA: Young, Hassell, Wood, with Harris and Casey as backups.
Wood and Hassell are basically our two top prospects right now, but both are struggling in AA. Young got promoted up this year and is hitting .300 in AA so far but has no power. Casey was demoted down to AA and is a backup, and seems like he’s not long for the organization. Harris seems like an undersized backup.
- High-A: Lile, De La Rosa, McKenzie with Shumpert, Antuna, Wilson as backups.
Antuna is hitting .176 and seems to finally have been taken out of a starting spot; this latest draft class should finally result in his release. Shumpert is a converted SS. Lile just got promoted up to High-A, otherwise nobody here is hitting well. Wilson is 27 and was demoted from AAA for some reason. Its hard to see any of these guys pushing for a promotion the rest of the way.
- Low-A: Emiliani, Green, De La Cruz, with Quintana, Thomas as backups
Emiliani was a 1B but apparently can lumber around LF now, and just got demoted back to Low-A. Quintana may be permanently moved to 1B and may not count here. Green, for all his prospect starlight, is not hitting well at all. De La Cruz is struggling. So is Thomas. Seems like these guys will be repeating Low-A unless they blow up the rest of the way.
- FCL: Ochoa Leyva, Vaquero, Cox with Baca and a slew of guys hitting under .200
Vaquero is the big-name here and he’s hitting .300 as an 18yr old so far in Rookie. Ochoa Leyva holding his own. Cox is not and is looking like a huge 4th round bust so far.
- DSL: Tejada, Acevedo, Batista with Soto and three other 2023 IFAs as backups.
Batista hitting .303, the rest of them hitting like .150. I can’t see any of them getting promoted.
Here’s what we could be looking at as your starting OFs 2024. Maybe it’s not quite as hard as I thought.
- AAA: Hassell, Wood, Rutherford, with MLFAs (Hill, Blankenhorn, Reyes released or resigned)
- AA: Young, Harris, McKenzie, Lile (Casey relesaed)
- High-A: Crews, Pinckney, Green, De la Rosa, Shumpert (Wilson, Antuna released)
- Low-A: Vaquero, De La Cruz, Nunez, Ochoa Leyva (Thomas, Emiliani released)
- FCL: Cox, Baca, Batista, Marte, Peoples (Contreras, Ramirez released)
- DSL: Current crew plus 2024 signees forcing 2023 underperformer relases
This would mean:
- Aggressively promote Wood in particular to AAA and hope that Hassell continues to develop. Rutherford back in AAA assuming we layer him in the MLB level, otherwise looking at more veteran MLFAs for AAA.
- Definitely aggressive with promotions of McKenzie and Lile to AA, based on their already being promoted this season. Harris and Young treading water.
- This would put new draftees Crews and Pinckney at High-A to start 2024. I do not buy that Crews will do the AFL->AA Strasburg path. Maybe he will and you’re seeing Lile or McKenzie back in High A instead.
- High-A also has too many players … that’s the squeeze. So maybe that does support Crews in AA. this plan has Green promoted (even though he’s not meriting right now) but DLR staying put.
- Nunez at Low-A. Seems right. He is joined by two guys moving up from rookie ball. But not Cox, who may be a blown 4th rounder.
- Everyone else in Rookie ball/DSL staying put, or perhaps 1-2 DSL guys moving inland.
So, maybe the crunch isn’t as bad as we thought. Eventually though if these guys all matriculate as expected, we’re going to have some logjams in the MLB outfield, and likely some trades to acquire assets.