I had a great idea this draft cycle. How do we tell which mock draft pundits actually do the best job of predicting the draft? Since I’ve got such hyper coverage of the draft going back a few years, this post circles back to the past few drafts, posts the actual top five players picked, then posts the final mock draft predicted top 5 from major pundits to see who is getting these things right. For the most part I have the same 8 pundits who do mocks going back to 2020.
I’ll include links to past content from this blog, which generally had links to the mock drafts leading up all the way to draft day. In each section there’s:
- Actual Draft top 5 link, which goes to baseball-reference.com’s draft database for that year.
- The Major Pundit final mock post here on nationalsarmrace.com from the day of the draft.
- Then, pundit by pundit a direct link to their final mocks published.
2025 Draft: Actual top 5: Willits, Bremner, Anderson, Holliday, Doyle
Major Pundit final mocks
- Keith Law/The Athletic: 7/12/25 final mock: Anderson, Hernandez, Arquette, Holliday, Willits (3/5)
- Jim Callis/MLBPipeline 7/13/25 Final Mock: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
- Jonathan Mayo/MLBPipeline: 7/13/25 Final Mock: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
- Baseball America Staff. Final Mock 7.0 7/13/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
- ESPN/Kiley McDaniel: Mock 3.0 7/10/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
- Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen: 2025 Mock 7/13/25: Willits, Doyle, Holliday, Anderson, Carlson (4/5)
- Mike Axisa/CBSSports First Round Prediction 7/13/25: Anderson, Doyle, Irish, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
- BleacherReport/Reuter: 7/12/25 final mock: Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday Willits (4/5)
- Prospects 1500: Final Mock 7/13/25: Anderson, Arnold, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (3/5)
- Prospects Live Final Mock 7/12/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Arnold (3/5)
- Baseball Prospect Journal: Mock 4.0 7/20/25: Anderson, Arnold, Arquette, Holliday, Willits (3/5)
What Happened? Well, the ONLY pundit to have the Nats taking Willits 1-1 in the end was Longenhagen, but then the rest of his top 5 was way off. Willits was in nearly everyone’s top 5, but primarily going 5th to the Cards. Mostly everyone had Holliday-Colorado, but Bremner at #2 was a massive shock. The Nats parting ways with their GM a week before the draft seemed to grease the skids to go with youth versus polish, and hence the near consensus 1-1 Anderson slipped to the Mariners, who were probably shocked and ecstatic at the development. Guys frequently mentioned in the top5 all spring who slipped out: Arquette slipped to #7, Hernandez to #6, and Arnold all the way to the Athletics at #11.
Who was Closest? Longenhagen the only one to get Willits right. Most of the pundits got 4 of the top 5 right ultimately, but not in the correct order. Nobody had Bremner in the top 5.
2024 Draft: Actual top 5: Bazzana, Burns, Condon, Kurtz, Hagen Smith.
Major Pundit final mocks:
- The Athletic/Keith Law’s Final Mock 7/14: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. (3/5)
- MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Final Mock 7/14: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Griffin (3/5)
- MLBpipeline/Mayo Final Mock 7/14: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Montgomery (3/5)
- Baseball America/Collazo Final Mock 7/14: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Caglianone (3/5)
- ESPN/KIley McDaniel Final Mock 3.1 7/14/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Wetherholt, Caglianone (3/5)
- Fangraphs/Longenhagen Mock 7/11/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. (3/5)
- CBSsports/Mike Axisa: Final Mock 7/14/25: Bazzana, Condon, Smith, Montgomery, Caglianone (3/5)
- BleacherReport/Reuter final mock 7/13/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. (3/5)
What happened? Bazzana surprised many and took a haircut off the 1-1 draft slot, but word had gotten out by draft day so the best connected pundits knew. Everyone had Condon & Burns , though not in the right order. Oakland at #4 was “on” Kurtz for a while, then the industry thought they backed off, but they picked him anyway, and nobody had him in their mocks. The joke is on the industry; Kurtz is destroying MLB pitching this year for the Athletics and had a famous 4-home run game a few weeks ago. Lastly the Smith pick was a shock to everyone. Montgomery and his broken leg was in most people’s top 3; he ended up slipping past the Nats to #12.
Who was Closest? So, most everyone got 3 out of 5, with nearly everyone having the same three names at the top. Props to those who didn’t have Wetherholt going 1-1 as the “winners” of this mock draft cycle.
2023 Draft: Actual top 5: Skenes, Crews, Clark, Langford, Jenkins.
Major Pundit final mocks (I did not do a mock draft collection in 2023)
- The Athletic/Keith Law Final Mock: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Gonzalez (4/5)
- MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Final Mock: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Jenkins (5/5)
- MLBpipeline/Jonathan Mayo Final Mock: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Gonzalez (4/5)
- Baseball America/Carlos Collazo final Mock 7/9/23: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Jenkins (5/5)
- ESPN/KIley McDaniel final mock v3.1 7/9/23: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Gonzalez (4/5)
- Fangraphs/Longenhagen mock v2.0 7/9/23: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Jenkins, Clark (5/5)
- CBSsports/Mike Axisa: final mock 7/9/23: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Clark, Teel (4/5)
- BleacherReport/Joel Reuter final mock 7/8/23: Skenes, Crews, Langford, Clark, Gonzalez (4/5)
What happened? The industry was convinced that the cheapskate Pirates were shying away from bonus demands from Crews/Boras and wanted a bat over an arm, leading them to Langford. Instead, on draft day Pittsburgh stayed true to their board and took the consensus 1-1 pick in Skenes, which then cascaded Crews to us at #2. Langford blew through the minors and looked like a steal for Texas as #4.
Who was Closest? Several pundits got the top 5 right, but only Bleacher Report had Skenes correctly going 1-1. Interestingly, the player most missed with (Gonzalez) fell to 15th in the draft (??), a weird set of events.
2022 Draft: Actual top 5: Holliday, Jones, Rocker, Johnson, Green
- Keith Law final mock 7/16/22: Holliday, Jones, Green, Collier, Nats take Parada (3/5)
- MLBpipeline Callis final mock 7/17/22: Jones, Holliday, Green, Johnson, Nats take Parada (4/5)
- MLBpipeline Mayo final mock 7/17/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Johnson, Nats take Lee. (3/5)
- Baseball America: Final Mock 7/15/22: Holliday, Jones, Parada, Johnson, Nats take Green. (4/5)
- ESPN McDaniel mock 3.0 7/15/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Collier, Nats take Berry. (2/5)
- Fangraphs/Longenhagen: mock 7/17/22: Johnson, Jones, Holliday, Neto, Nats take Parada (3/5)
- CBSsports Mike Axisa final mock 7/14/22: Johnson, Jones, Holliday, Collier, Nats take Green (4/5)
- Bleacher Report/Reuter: 7/16/22 final mock: Jones, Holliday, Johnson, Collier, Nats take Parada (3/5)
What happened? Most of the pundits got this relatively close, though there was a lot of mention of Kevin Parada in the top 5 (he ended up going 11th). Everyone had Holliday-Jones going 1-2. Some had Brooks Lee or Cam Collier in the top 5: Lee slipped to 8th while Collier went 18th (how do you go from a top 5 pick to 18th?)
Who was Closest? Baseball America was probably the closest here, getting four of the top 5, correctly predicting 1-2, and getting the Nats’ Green pick.
2021 Draft: Actual top 5: Davis, Leiter, Jobe, Mayer, Cowser. Nats at 11 get House.
- The Atlantic (Keith Law) Mock 7/9/21: Mayer, Rocker, Leiter, Davis, Watson. Nats land Jobe (3/5)
- MLBPipeline (Callis) Final Mock 7/10/21: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Davis, Watson. Nats take Bednar. (4/5)
- MLBPipeline (Mayo) Final Mock 7/10/21: Mayer, Leiter, House, Davis, Watson. Nats get Madden (3/5)
- Baseball America v7.0 day of: Mayer, Watson, Jobe, Leiter, Lawlar. Nats take Madden (3/5)
- ESPN/McDaniel: 7/11/21 mock: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Davis, Watson. Nats take Madden (4/5)
- Fangraphs/Longenhagen day-of Mock 3.0: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Davis, Lawlar. Nats go Madden (4/5)
- CBSsports (Axisa) Mock 7/9/21: Mayer, Lawlar, House, Leiter, Davis. Nats take Jobe (3/5)
- Bleacher Report (Reuter) mock 7/11/21: Meyer, Lawlar, Jobe, Leiter, Cowser. Nats Madden (3/5)
What happened? Pittsburgh got a big haircut off of Henry Davis at 1-1, which threw off everyone’s mock draft. Then, Rocker inexplicably slipped to #11 and the Mets, where he infamously didn’t sign due to arguments about medicals. For whatever reason, House slipped all the way to the Nats at #11 and we nabbed him, in a series of moves similar to the Rendon draft. Ty Madden, who many of the pundits had the Nats taking at #11, didn’t go until the 32nd overall pick and just made his MLB debut.
Who was Closest? Jim Callis, Longenhagen and McDaniel hit on their first four picks, just getting them in the wrong order. Props to Reuter for being the only one to mention Cowser who goes 5th
2020 Draft: Actual top 5: Torkelson, Kierstad, Meyer, Lacy, Martin. Nats at #22 get Cavalli.
- The Athletic (Keith Law) 6/10/20 Final Mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer (4/5)
- MLBpipeline (Jim Callis) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer. (4/5)
- MLBpipeline (Jonathan Mayo) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer. (4/5)
- Baseball America (Collazo) 6/10/20 final Mock Draft v8.0 ; Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer (4/5)
- ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Hancock, Meyer (4/5)
- Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) Mock 3.0 6/10/20: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer (4/5)
- CBSSports (Mike Axisa): 6/9/20 final mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock. (3/5)
- Bleacher Report (Reuter): 6/10/20 final mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer (4/5)
What happened? In the weird Covid year, most all the pundits were really “on” this draft, getting 4 of the top 5 correct. Everyone missed on the Orioles taking Kierstad at #2 and for good reason: He took $1.5M or so off his asking price, a deal no one could have known about.
Who was Closest? Nearly all our major pundits got 4 of 5 this year.
Final scores? Adding up top-5 performance for the last six drafts:
- Keith Law/The Athletic: 20/30.
- Jim Callis/MLBPipeline 24/30
- Jonathan Mayo/MLBPipeline: 21/30
- Baseball America/Collazo 23/30
- ESPN/Kiley McDaniel: 21/30
- Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen: 23/30
- Mike Axisa/CBSSports 21/30
- BleacherReport/Reuter: 21/30
So there you have it: Jim Callis is the best, closely followed by the BA’s Collazo and Fangraphs Longenhagen. Keith Law brings up the rear, having missed out on one fewer top-5 pick than the collection of Mayo, Axisa, and Reuter. Of course, it bears noting that the entire spread is 4 picks across 6 drafts, so maybe this isn’t as conclusive as I’m making it sound 