Maryland residents are in for a challenging year in 2026. Gov. Wes Moore is digging his heels in on a controversial redistricting effort — criticized as gerrymandering even by some Democrats — that polling and public testimony show Marylanders have little interest in, with a recent University of Maryland, Baltimore County survey finding just 27% rank it a top priority. We will again face the painful reality of sharply higher vehicle registration fees, including annual surcharges of $125 for full electrics and $100 for plug-in hybrids that started in 2025, on top of base increases that have hit many families hard. Despite significant tax and fee hikes alongside budget cuts, the state of Maryland still faces a projected structural deficit of around $1.2–1.4 billion for Fiscal Year 2027, which must be addressed under new House Speaker Joseline Peña-Melnyk, who led the effort to override Gov. Moore’s veto of a reparations study commission bill.
Democratic political strategists should be wringing their hands with anxiety, having to win elections in such a politically toxic climate.
Despite the numerous political challenges facing the state, Maryland Democrats are unlikely to lose much sleep over the security of the various seats up for election across the state. Maryland Republicans have shown signs of life in recent months; however, the overall tone feels quite bleak regarding the chances of Republicans flipping State House and Senate seats, let alone the governorship. While some of this pessimism is driven by a dramatic voter registration advantage for Democrats, the reality of the situation is far more complex.
Maryland Republicans have long struggled with a fundamental inability to discern issues of strong relevance to the national political climate versus those of relevance to Maryland voters. The proliferation of political echo chambers created a resonating narrative that the real reason candidates like Dan Cox failed wasn’t because of an affiliation with the toxicity of Donald Trump, but rather because they weren’t shouting loudly enough or getting enough press time. While Marylanders fumed at skyrocketing vehicle registration fees, punishing property tax assessments and soul-crushing commutes, in some cases, party operatives opted to lean in on “red-meat” issues that carry weight nationally but are not as compelling for the broader Maryland voter base.
If Maryland Republicans want to reposition themselves on a serious platform for political relevance in Maryland, they must immediately align themselves with the issues that Marylanders care about, not just cater to a vocal partisan base. Maryland Republicans should approach this challenge the way one would approach any New Year’s resolution. First, they should identify the unhealthy patterns: Take a pass on the political junk food of farming headlines from national right-wing shock jocks. In fact, a wiser approach might be to check the headlines on Fox News and scratch those from the list of talking points. Choose healthier and more robust alternatives, such as getting to the bottom of the $3.42 billion in unsupported federal funds flowing through Maryland agencies. The Maryland GOP should invest its resources in researching the impact of the numerous taxes and fees crushing Marylanders and shaping them into relevant talking points. Maryland’s energy profile is in disarray right now, with offshore wind projects stalled amid federal permit revocations under the Trump administration and little proactive leadership from Annapolis beyond past lawsuits.
Aside from making political dietary changes, the Maryland GOP should reevaluate its public profile. The current model of creating a platform and demanding that Maryland residents embrace whatever soapbox issue party leaders find important in the moment is not only unsustainable but, frankly, a frustrating turn-off. The party should train party operatives in public communication strategies so that, when they are before a crowd, they create engaging narratives and make relevant, compelling arguments. At the core of this strategy is coaching its operatives to be effective and relevant communicators capable of connecting with Maryland residents and building a sense of personal investment in the future direction of this state.
Finally, and most importantly, the state party must seek terms of peace with former Governor Larry Hogan. The road is steep, even amid ongoing speculation about Hogan’s potential involvement in the 2026 cycle as a popular moderate Republican. It will be steeper still if Maryland Republicans continue to hold on to a grudge stemming from his refusal to align with and support President Trump, and his heavy-handed approach to COVID. We can have heated discussions about who was right and wrong, but as it stands, this current fractured state of Maryland Republicanism will handicap any effort to challenge the current regime. A united front is imperative to move forward with any chance of success
As it currently stands, Maryland will face some dark days if Democrats enjoy an easy 2026 election cycle. Deficits will continue to rise, social tensions will amplify and Marylanders will continue to find themselves in the center of heated national political battles — all at the whims and egos of an emboldened partisan establishment. There is still time for the Maryland GOP to change course. It just requires the will and humility to do so.
Torrey Snow is a columnist and editorial board contributor at The Baltimore Sun; he can be reached at tsnow@baltsun.com.