The O’s face their biggest division deficit in three weeks, as two losing series coincided with the Yankees showing signs of life.
Each week on Camden Chat, we’ve been checking in on the American League postseason contenders. This past week, the Orioles suffered a couple of costly series losses that dropped them out of first, while they’ll hope to hold off a slew of wild card hopefuls. Let’s check out what just happened and what’s coming up next.
What just happened: It’s been a rough week for the Orioles, who lost consecutive series against AL East clubs after dominating their divisional opponents for much of the year. The O’s averaged just over two runs per game during that six-game stretch against the Rays and Red Sox. Hard to win games that way. #analysis
The Birds’ ongoing struggles allowed the Yankees to reclaim first place in the AL East after temporarily losing it last week. And thanks to New York’s back-to-back walkoff wins, the Yanks now have their largest division lead since Aug. 26, putting them in the driver’s seat to win the East. That probably comes as a surprise to the many Yankees fans who have witnessed their club’s poor play for most of the second half. Lucky for them, the Orioles have been even poorer.
What’s happening next: The Yankees, after completing their four-game home series against the Red Sox, will set out for a six-game west coast road trip to Seattle and Oakland. The Orioles can only hope the time change will screw up the Yanks’ internal clocks.
Meanwhile, the Orioles will play six of their next nine games against the Tigers, who they somehow haven’t faced until now. Seems weird to go all the way until September without facing one of your American League opponents, but I suppose there are always quirks in the schedule. The Tigers are a red-hot team that’s won 13 of their last 19 games. They’re playing with a lot of confidence, while the Orioles are, uh, not. The good news for the O’s is that they likely won’t face AL Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal in either of the two series.
What just happened: The Royals followed up a season-worst seven-game losing streak by winning five of their next six games, including a pivotal three-game sweep of the Twins to pull ahead of them for the second wild card.
The Tigers, Mariners, and Red Sox are all on the outside looking in, but they’re not buried yet. Detroit in particular has played with quite a bit of spark of late, and even if the Tigers fall short this year, they’re building an impressive young core that is poised to contend in 2025.
The M’s have been middling around .500 recently, but in a six-team playoff field (and a weak AL West) that’s enough to keep them in spitting distance. And the Red Sox rebounded from a five-game skid by winning two series in a row, one again the historically awful White Sox and one against the Orioles, who are not historically awful but sometimes play as if they are.
What’s happening next: If the Tigers are hoping to pull off a miracle in the wild card race, they’ve got a golden opportunity to gain ground over the next nine games, facing two of the teams ahead of them (six vs. the Orioles, three against the Royals). Meanwhile, Kansas City gets an easy schedule for the next week and a half, with their Tigers series sandwiched between matchups against mediocre NL teams, the Pirates and Giants. The Orioles’ three-game lead over the Royals for the first wild card suddenly isn’t looking so comfortable.
The Twins get a cupcake opponent in the Reds this weekend but then begin a four-game series in Cleveland, against whom they’re just 2-7 this year. The Mariners and Red Sox, who at this point are going to have to win a ton of games and hope that other teams falter, represent the Yankees’ next two opponents. Those clubs’ postseason chances may be on thin ice, but they could at least do the Orioles a solid by bagging some wins over New York.
AL postseason matchups if the season ended today
#1 Yankees (AL East winner) — first round bye
#2 Guardians (AL Central winner) — first round bye
#3 Astros (AL West winner) host #6 Twins (third wild card)
#4 ORIOLES (first wild card) host #5 Royals (second wild card)
None of the six seeds is locked in at the moment, but the one that’s closest to being settled is the Astros at #3. They’re four games ahead of the Mariners for first place in the AL West but, at 78-68, stand no chance of matching the records of the AL East and AL Central winners to earn a first-round bye. Expect to see the Astros as the lone division winner playing in the Wild Card Series. Which of course they will probably win, because they’re annoying like that.
Meanwhile, the Guardians are getting closer to clinching the Central — currently four games up — and at 84-63 are jostling with the Yankees and Orioles for the #1 overall seed. The O’s and Yanks could end up at #1, #2, or #4, with an outside chance of slipping to #5 or even #6. The Royals and Twins have flip-flopped between the #5 and #6 spots the last couple of weeks, while the Tigers, Red Sox, and M’s try desperately to muscle their way into the mix.
So don’t lock in an Orioles-Royals first-round matchup just yet. These projected playoff scenarios could look completely different by next week, and certainly by the time the regular season wraps up on Sept. 29.