Attempting to explain the poor play in hopes we don’t see it again.
The Orioles played to a 9-16 record in April, told themselves it was taking some time to get hot… then played to a 9-18 record in May.
The season may be lost already, and the fanbase is still dazed, trying to figure out what went wrong. But with the team seemingly bouncing back, having won eight of its last ten games, there’s a chance to learn a bit from the mistakes.
The big question is, was this bad planning or bad luck? Here are some things that accounted for a terrible May, and what’s changed.
Injuries and underperforming replacements
On April 28, the Orioles lost Jordan Westburg to a hamstring injury and, having suffered a setback in his recovery, he’s still not back. What the Orioles tried in place of Westburg’s high-contact, middle-of-the-order bat: a 3:1 ratio of Ramón Urías and Emmanuel Rivera. It wasn’t good enough. Urías OPS’d .597 and Rivera .601 in May. A good plan in theory, as both hitters are capable hitters, but both stumbled.
Colton Cowser went and broke his thumb sliding into first base just four games into the season. His replacement (by committee): Heston Kjerstad (29 games in left field), Ramón Laureano (23) and Dylan Carlson (15). No surprise, Kjerstad’s hitting has been disastrous: in 44 games since Cowser went down he’s hit .179 with a .516 OPS.
Cedric Mullins was ruled out, also with a hamstring, on May 29. But he hadn’t been good for most of the prior month. More on that below.
Add in Tyler O’Neill (shoulder, May 15) Gary Sanchez (wrist, April 28), Laureano (ankle, May 21) and, it’s obvious, the Orioles have gotten stuck with a ton of injuries, and it’s necessitated some weird lineups.
Struggles from two expected contributors
Add to that the fact that two good hitters have hit like bad ones, for no obvious reason.
Ryan Mountcastle was a drag in April with a measly .194 average, despite lots of hard contact. But he was starting to heat up, with a .298 average in May before being put on the shelf (yet another hamstring).
Adley Rutschman suffering from the suckitude bug was also a huge problem for the offense in May: he hit a mind-numbing .182 while playing a ton of games due to the badness/unavailability of Gary Sanchez.
Overall, it looks like a contagion of bad hitting across a lot of players who should do better. Bad luck, or bad coaching.
Too much platooning?
Dean Kremer, in a postgame interview after a strong outing this week, implied that too much platooning had guys not sure of their spots. It’s worth noting that many hitters have reverse splits this year: Mountcastle chief among them.
The team is still dreadful against left handers, averaging .198 versus .250. That is eyebrow-raising given how much this team likes to draft left-hitting position players who play up the middle. It is possible to get too cutesy with drafting and platooning.
The starters showed up unprepared for the season
Said Dean Kremer after a May 2 gem, “I wish I would do it Opening Day, you know?” Kremer always pitches badly in April, but the gap is huge this year: 6.75 versus 2.72 ERA in May and 0.79 over his last two weeks.
And he’s not the only one:
Did everyone but Tomoyuki Sugano show up out of shape to spring training? You almost wonder if there’s a problem coaching, or with conditioning.
The bullpen is still a weakness
If you look at the Orioles’ last two weeks, what stands out is the starter improvement, not so much the bullpen. The starters have an AL third-best 2.47 ERA in this stretch; the relievers, at 6.16, are 28th. They were basically equally bad in April (5.17 ERA) and May (6.04 ERA).
There have been comings and goings: Cionel Pérez, Cody Poteet, Grant Wolfram, Matt Bowman, Kade Strowd, Colin Selby, Yaramil Hiraldo, Scott Blewett. That’s true of a lot of years with the bullpen.
But this is just an imperfect group, is my sense. The team’s five most-used relievers are Bryan Baker, Keegan Akin, Seranthony Domínguez, Cionel Pérez and Gregory Soto. The first two have been solid; the last three not as much.
Signs of improvement
Maybe this isn’t a playoff team, but the latest run of good play suggests they are not bottom-of-the-AL bad. The starters will not continue to amaze and dazzle as an MLB Top-5 rotation, so let’s keep this dark magic rolling as long as we can. As for rotational players like Ramón Laureano (1.054 OPS in May) and Dylan Carlson (.839), they’ve already proven to be plus signings, even if we can’t say the same of Tyler O’Neill.
Meanwhile, after a concerning start, Adley’s been a stud over the last week, hitting .313 with an .853 OPS. Ditching a toe-tap may be helping?
Heston Kjerstad’s ineffectiveness really dragged down the outfield’s offensive performance, but he, like the rest of the team, seems to be turning the corner, with a .267/.313/.600/.913 line since May 30. Best case scenario, this is the adjustment period Adley, Gunnar, Westburg and Cowser also went through, and which Coby Mayo is going through now.
Conclusions
So, overall, is the Orioles’ recent badness due to bad planning (the front office), bad coaching, or bad luck? It seems like a sprinkling of all, in truth. The hitting slump was mostly impossible to plan for, but it may raise big questions about the hitting coaches, particularly in light of Brandon Hyde’s departure. As for the starting rotation nor the bullpen, neither seems adequately constructed, but as a unit the starters were much worse early this season than expected. The bullpen has been consistently mediocre, which makes it feel like lately we’re getting better play from this unit than we even have a right to expect.
Some of this is puzzling; some isn’t. Hopefully the 2025 Orioles’ worst baseball is behind it. There’s a lot more baseball to be played this season, and a lot more trend-watching to see while we figure out what this team is.