Among the teams contending in the American League, the Baltimore Orioles’ rotation is a weak spot heading into the 2025 season. After losing Corbin Burnes to free agency, the staff is anchored by Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and recently signed Kyle Gibson. With Grayson Rodriguez starting the season on the injured list, Zach Eflin will take the mound as the Opening Day starter. The lack of depth leaves the Orioles in search of a major upgrade.
The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicts that the San Diego Padres will trade Dylan Cease to Baltimore, potentially solving the Orioles’ pitching woes. In return, San Diego would receive first baseman/third baseman Coby Mayo and left-hander Cade Povich—two promising young players who could help solidify the Padres’ future while reshaping both teams’ trajectories for 2025.
Dylan Cease’s Situation and the Padres’ Dilemma
Cease was traded midway through spring training last year, but that was a different situation. The Chicago White Sox were in full rebuild when they sent him to the Padres. While San Diego is looking to stay competitive this season, despite budget constraints, kept them from making significant moves this offseason. Their biggest addition was signing Nick Pivetta on a backloaded four-year deal.
Cease was a key piece for the Padres’ rotation in 2024, logging 189 1/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA. He struck out 29.4% of batters he faced, racking up 224 strikeouts, his fourth consecutive season topping the 200-mark. The Padres and Cease agreed to a $13.75 million salary for his final arbitration year. Barring a midseason trade, he’d be a lock for a qualifying offer, but if traded, he wouldn’t be eligible.
Why It Makes Sense for the Padres
The package has enough intrigue for the Padres as it provides two pieces who can still contribute to the 2025 team, even if they lose Cease. Povich struggled in 16 starts as a rookie in 2024, but he’s shown enough promise this spring (15 strikeouts, 4 walks) to secure the fifth spot in the Orioles’ season-opening rotation. Meanwhile, Mayo is known for his raw power and potential. Despite his impressive tools, Mayo’s recent comments after being optioned to the minors suggest he might benefit from a change of scenery. A trade like this could give Mayo a fresh start, while adding depth to San Diego’s roster for the future.
Orioles’ Dire Need of Pitching Depth
The Orioles are coming off a 101-win season but face major questions in their starting rotation. Acquiring Cease from the Padres would give the Orioles a much-needed frontline starter. Cease possesses the swing-and-miss stuff to dominate the AL East and would immediately elevate Baltimore’s rotation to a more competitive level. Adding him wouldn’t just improve their short-term outlook but would also signal that the Orioles are serious about making a deep postseason run.
The cost is steep. Mayo is blocked by Gunnar Henderson and has struggled to find a path to the majors, while Povich, despite making the Opening Day rotation, remains an unproven arm. For a team built to win now, moving future pieces to secure a proven ace like Cease could be a gamble worth taking.
Main Photo: © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
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