The big right-handed rookie seems to be figuring his rookie struggles out, and this team’s right-handed hitting hopes need him.
The moment that made me think that Coby Mayo can hit major-league pitching was on Friday, June 23. That game happened to be a comfy 5-3 win over the Yankees, an unlikely scenario in that Orioles hitters had to face a lefty in Max Fried, and that it was Scott Blewett who ended up getting the win. Mayo went 2-for-3 that day, but it was the way he got his second MLB RBI that stood out with one out and two on, he heaved a soft Max Fried breaking pitch into center, scoring Colton Cowser and tying the game at 3. It was artful.
You may have heard, as we keep constructing narratives to explain why the O’s, a springtime postseason contender, suck this year, that this team can’t hit lefties. One theory is that GM Mike Elias basically built this team around left-handed hitting to exploit Camden Yards’ short porch in right. Another is injuries: a lot of those who’ve spent time on the shelf (Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman) hit from the right side. Another, more simply, is that the right-handed hitters have just been bad. On June 25, after the O’s blew a 5-4 lead in the eighth against Texas, interim manager Tony Mansolino voiced the thought that too many righties are chasing breaking balls out of the zone, suggesting an approach problem.
Let’s face it, all three are true, which is how you get a 29th-ranked OPS against lefties, but let’s discuss that last part. There’s no denying the ugly facts. Almost incredibly, Orioles right-handed hitters are defying all the wisdom of platoon advantages by hitting lefties worse than their left-handed counterparts. As a whole, lefty position players Orioles are averaging .227 and OPS’ing .622 against southpaws, while righties are averaging a paltry .211 and OPS’ing .573! That’s very bad.
Here are the primary offenders: Emmanuel Rivera (.071 BA in 14 AB), Tyler O’Neill (.087 BA in 23 AB), Gary Sánchez (.167 BA in 30 AB), Jorge Mateo (.185 BA in 27 AB), Mountcastle (.200 BA in 50 AB), Ramón Laureano (.203 BA in 59 AB), Coby Mayo (.238 BA in 21 AB).
(In case you’re wondering, the only competent right-handed batters against southpaws have been Ramón Urías and Adley Rutschman (sadly, injured), who average .271 and .278 against them, respectively. Laureano, who’s been very solid this year, has bizarre reverse splits: he’s flipped his career marks by crushing righties to the tune of a .292 BA and .957 OPS in 2025.)
There’s some bad luck in the above list, some underperformance, some people who probably shouldn’t be taking numerous AB’s for the Orioles at all. Is there a chance of reviving the righty hitters this season, so we don’t have to watch mediocre lefty pitchers continue to no-hit the Orioles for long stretches?
I do expect that the numbers will go up on their own. Injury-prone outfielder Tyler O’Neill will come back from rehab soon, and he won’t hit .087 against RHP for the whole year. Likewise Gary Sánchez, who’s shown his power since getting reactivated after a hand injury. Laureano’s splits will get closer to his career baseline, which shows him hitting RHP pretty well.
What about Coby Mayo? It’s injuries to Ryan Mountcastle that have Mayo finally getting regular starts in June, and the rookie’s numbers are starting to perk up. In fact, after averaging a sad .186 over his first 30 games, Mayo is 6-for-23 in his last seven, which equals a decent .261 average and .391 slugging.
This is a really important turnaround for Mayo, whose first games as a big leaguer have been tough, to say the least: he’s got a -1.3 WAR since he debuted, a product of forgettable defense at third and first and surprisingly little offense. He still hasn’t homered in the big leagues, and of course power is supposed to be his speciality.
We know we need to be patient: at 6’4”, 230 lbs, Mayo is so big it’s easy to forget he’s still just 23. It’s important to remember, too, how long it took Mayo’s young teammates to get over their rookie struggles: Gunnar Henderson hit .195 BA in 40 games in 2023, and and Jackson Holliday hit .189 in his first 60 games.
Besides, Mayo has a massive pedigree as a MiLB hitter. This is a guy who won Eastern League Player of the year twice in 2023 and 2024, thanks to his huge bat. In 2023, as a 21-year-old he hit .290/.410/.564 with 29 homers and 77 extra-base hits in 140 games across two levels. In 2024, as the No. 6 prospect in all of MLB, he slashed .293/.369/.574 with 23 doubles, three triples, 22 homers, 61 runs scored, 67 RBI and 39 walks in 87 games at Triple-A Norfolk.
The bad news, unfortunately, is that Mayo’s specialty has never been hitting righties. In his award-winning 2023 season, his average was twenty points lower against them (.275 vs. .296) and his OPS almost 150 points (.880 versus 1.008 against RHP). The trend was exactly the same again in 2024. Thus far in the Majors, it’s been the inverse, with Mayo hitting a paltry .158 versus righties and .238 against lefties. I’m guessing the problem is as Tony Mansolino said: breaking balls. Mayo definitely seems to be one of the chief offenders in terms of swinging over these, with a .105 average against, his worst of any pitch.
Is there hope here? I think so. I think we’re seeing Mayo turn the corner in terms of maturity as a hitter, undergoing the same struggle that Henderson and Holliday did. Rookie hitters first have to prove they can hit fastballs, then breaking balls, and only then do you really get to be a big league hitter. (Heston Kjerstad still hasn’t passed that hurdle, though I hope he can.) Mayo’s huge body of work as a minor-league hitter, which includes slugging curveballs, suggests that he’ll eventually make the change.
If the O’s, as expected, become sellers at the deadline, parting company with either of the Ryan’s could be in the cards, which would clear a spot for Mayo at 1B. O’Hearn’s value will be high; Mountcastle’s will not. But both are pretty likely to be moved by next season, meaning that sustained at-bats may be coming sooner for Coby Mayo than you thought.