They could make it interesting, tread water, or fully flame out. What do you think?
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Baltimore Orioles fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
The Orioles aren’t exactly in the wild card race, but they’re not fully out of it quite yet either. If they get hot enough, something weird could still happen. One doesn’t have to go any farther back than just last year to see the example of a Tigers team that was 38-46 at the end of June and 52-57 at the end of July. That Detroit front office decided to do a small sell-off of some of its assets, and the team ultimately vaulted into a postseason spot by season’s end.
Do the 2025 Orioles have that kind of run in them? It seems unlikely, though part of the fun of it is that you can believe in the longshot until it becomes mathematically impossible. Part of the challenge is going to be doing well enough in July to convince general manager Mike Elias that it would be better to let it ride with the current team, just in case something wildly good happens, rather than trading away a few of the best-performing players.
Or, the Orioles could fully follow in the 2024 Tigers footsteps and go on a run after the deadline. That’s magic that the 2022 Orioles team could not quite follow after its own small July sell-off. That team kept hope alive in August before coming up short in September/October.
My question for you to think about this week is this: How close will the Orioles get to a wild card spot by the end of the month?
As of this writing, the Orioles are seven games back of the Mariners, who occupy the third wild card spot. With the All-Star break in the middle, there are only 25 games on the calendar for the O’s this month. I figure they’ll have to get to within at most three games to stop a sell-off and I’m not even sure that’s enough. I’m not confident they’ll manage to get even that close, but who knows? Some kind of unlikely 18-7 month might make something interesting happen.
In the survey from last week, I asked what month you think Samuel Basallo will make his debut for the Orioles. The month of September took down the win with a plurality of 44%. I think that’s most likely to be the case, though it’s worth noting that Gunnar Henderson’s debut was August 31, 2022. Surprisingly to me, the next-highest answer was a fully pessimistic “won’t happen in 2025,” which took 31%.
We already know that the latest injured catcher, Chadwick Tromp, will be hitting the injured list officially later today, but with the Orioles where they are in the standings, plus with Basallo’s development at the catching position having been slow due to injuries the last couple of seasons, the incentives just aren’t there to call him up any sooner, no matter how good the bat has been at the Triple-A level to date.