Jordan Westburg’s star turn is the one only Orioles fans saw coming

The quiet slugger’s blazing hot start is a testament to the consistency he showed in getting to Baltimore as well as a lesson in outshining expectations.

If you were putting together an AL All-Star team for April, the player starting at 3B would probably come as a surprise to most. It wouldn’t be Boston’s Rafael Devers, Houston’s Alex Bregman, Cleveland’s José Ramírez or any of the other usual suspects. One month into the season, the unquestioned best 3B in the AL is the Orioles’ Jordan Westburg.

Not only is Westburg currently leading the Orioles in bWAR at 1.3, but that number puts him in top 10 of all the majors. His start to the year has been in line with the likes of former MVPs Jose Altuve, Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. His consistently excellent performance so far has helped catapult the Orioles’ offense into another stratosphere. It’s that performance that earned Westburg AL Player of the Week and is sure to earn him many more accolades.

Perhaps it’s fitting that the soft-spoken Westburg would quietly work his way into the conversation of best young players in the American League. After all, the former Mississippi State star was never considered among the Orioles mega-prospects who consistently occupied the tippy-top spots in all the prospect rankings. While buddies Rutschman, Henderson and Cowser ranked among baseball’s elite minor leaguers, Westburg fought to barely make it onto the Top 100 prospects list.

Those more humble expectations make Westburg’s rise to the edge of stardom all that more satisfying—though not surprising to those who were paying attention. In 158 games for the Norfolk Tides, Westburg put up an impressive triple slash of .283/.366/.533 while pumping out 36 HRs, 40 2Bs and 128 RBIs.

It was those impressive numbers that had Birdland clamoring for his promotion, even as talent evaluators remained unmoved. When the O’s drafted Westy out of Starkville, MLB.com rated him as a power over contact infielder with above average athleticism but no truly great skill. Draft evaluators knocked him for “a lack of consistency at the plate” caused by a “a very aggressive, pull-happy approach and sometimes struggles with pitch recognition and managing the strike zone.”

Three years later—after consistently mashing his way to 60 minor league HRs and over 200 RBIs—the book on Westburg remained largely on changed. The only changes from his draft profile to prospect profile was a bump from 50 to 55 on his power and fielding. His overall 55 grade on the 20-80 scale but him in the same range that Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays reached at the end of their minor league careers. That is to say, most viewed him as a capable major league starter with upside, but not a particularly high ceiling.

Instead, Westburg came up to Baltimore and adjusted to the big leagues faster than any of his more highly regarded friends. After going 1-4 in his MLB debut, his batting average never dropped below .250 as a rookie. From July onward, his on-base percentage and OPS increased every month.

After coming to the big leagues without a true defensive home, Westy still managed to step into the big leagues and immediately become one of Baltimore’s best defenders. A lot of times rookies come up and leave fans wondering when they’ll play better, Westburg only left us wondering when he’d play more.

He got that opportunity to be an unquestioned everyday player to start this season, and has settled in as the go-to starter at 3B. He still has that aggressive approach he had back in college. His rankings when it comes to chase rate, whiff rate and walk rate tell the story of a hitter who swings and misses A LOT, will go after pitches outside of the zone and isn’t too interested in taking a walk.

While that was once seen as a potential weakness, Westburg’s approach has only fueled the fires of his hot start. Swinging at a lot of pitches is never a bad thing when you’re making as sweet of contact as the O’s’ former first round pick. I could go into greater detail about how Westburg ranks in the 95th percentile or better for xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and a bunch of other offensive analytical categories. Or you can skip the acronyms and watch his latest home run while imagining him hitting the ball that hard all the time.

All the teams that go onto win World Series titles have players that were destined to be stars. No one was surprised when Buster Posey, Corey Seager or Ronald Acuña Jr. came into MLB, became stars and led their teams to World Series titles. For the Orioles, everyone expects Rutschman, Henderson and Holliday to be those players.

What propels teams like the current Braves and Astros to perpetual contention is when unexpected players become additional stars. You know what’s better than Acuña and Freddie Freeman? Another star in Austin Riley. How do you improve on a core of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez? Kyle Tucker finally making good on his prodigious potential. For the Orioles, Westburg is jumping to the head of the line to be that next star.

The caveat with these early season hot streaks is that baseball seasons are long and a 20-game sample could end up proving meaningless come Game 162. Because of that, betting that Westburg reaches the 40 HRs he’s on pace for is probably not a smart play. However, everything we’ve seen says betting against him is almost always a losing play.

The Orioles built a team capable of winning the World Series last year, and still they fell at the very first hurdle. The stars on the 2023 team are back and still getting better, but there’s plenty of room on this team for even more stars to step up. If Westy can keep up anywhere close to this level of production, he could be the star that makes the difference that sends the Orioles deep into October.