The Guardians, 4.5 games out of a wild card spot, are probably hoping to take some games out of the O’s.
With the days until the trade deadline ticking down, a person could easily end up viewing each particular game in a grim fashion: Is this the last time I’ll see Cedric Mullins in an Orioles uniform? Or Ryan O’Hearn? For me, it’s not much fun to dwell on such grim things, so I try not to do it too much, but it’s there in the back of my mind.
A funny and kind of sad thing is that Guardians fans might be thinking the same about some of their players. That team collapsed in June and their 8-8 record so far in July isn’t enough to get them really into the race. They’re in better shape than the Orioles, but at 4.5 games out with four teams to pass, their odds of making it still aren’t very good. They’ve got a 4.4% chance in Baseball Reference’s postseason odds.
The basic FanGraphs simulation gives them a bit better at 10.8%, but that’s still not very good. You don’t want to be in a situation where you have to make a big bet about a one-in-nine chance paying off, because you lose the other eight times.
Cleveland doesn’t have to decide as soon as the Orioles do. If they romp over the hopeless O’s for four games, the Guardians might creep a little closer and slip by one or two of the teams in their way, and then it might be worth buying or at least letting it ride. In which case I’d like to know if they’re interested in trading a pitching prospect for Mullins and O’Hearn.
Orioles lineup
- Jackson Holliday – 2B
- Jordan Westburg – 3B
- Gunnar Henderson – SS
- Ryan O’Hearn – 1B
- Ramón Laureano – LF
- Colton Cowser – DH
- Tyler O’Neill – RF
- Cedric Mullins – CF
- Alex Jackson – C
Tomoyuki Sugano makes the start for the Orioles. I’m not optimistic enough about his trade value to seriously say, “This could be his final start as an Oriole.”
With the season being pretty much officially conceded, I have to say that it is dumb to not have Coby Mayo in this lineup. Maybe it will be easier if O’Hearn is dealt within the next ten days. But like, come on. Just make him the DH and Cowser plays right field and who cares about O’Neill?
The front office is surely hoping that O’Neill can get right so he’s not as much of a bust of a signing as he’s looked to date. So of course he has to play. It’s annoying that he’s the first player who received multiple guaranteed years from Mike Elias. They could have signed someone who actually had a good chance of being healthy and good.
Guardians lineup
- Steven Kwan – LF
- Angel Martínez – CF
- José Ramírez – 3B
- Kyle Manzardo – DH
- Carlos Santana – 1B
- Nolan Jones – RF
- Daniel Schneeman – 2B
- Brayan Rocchio – SS
- Bo Naylor – C
Tanner Bibee, the Guardians starter, is a guy who I think was on a number of people’s “it would be cool if the Orioles traded for him” lists before this season. After a great rookie season and a solid sophomore season, Bibee is sitting just below league average with a 4.29 ERA through 19 games this season. His strikeout rate has dropped and that seems to be the bulk of his problem. Bibee did not post a quality start in any of his three July starts.