The Baltimore Orioles have serious issues around the entire clubhouse, especially when it comes to on-field play. As discussed previously, the team’s pitching has not only been subpar, it ranks in the bottom fourth in nearly every statistical category. Charlie Morton has been a bust this season, the bullpen has been spotty, and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano is arguably their ace. This isn’t even taking into account the Orioles’ issues with offense. Despite all of the investment into their young prospects, there is a widespread lack of offensive production from multiple positions. There’s even a good chance the Orioles will fail to break .500 this season if things don’t improve.
We’re ranking the four biggest problems with the Orioles lineup and how hard the regression is. While there are still some big-time contributors, including Ryan O’Hearn and Gunnar Henderson, there’s a lot to be concerned about.
Four Positions of Concern for Orioles Offense
1. Heston Kjerstad – Outfielder
2025 stats: 147 AB; .190/.238/.545; 41 K; 5 BB; 58 OPS+; 2 doubles; 4 HR; 16 RBI
There is no sugarcoating the fact that Heston Kjerstad has been awful so far this year for the Orioles. It’s even more disappointing when you consider the 26-year-old ranked number 32 in MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospect list in 2024.
Kjerstad slugged a .303/.401/.584 slash line across three levels last year, with the bulk of the at-bats at the Triple-A level. He showcased a balance between gap and raw power, slugging 14 doubles, one triple, and 16 home runs at the level. In addition, his hit-to-strikeout rate was almost at the 1:1 mark.
In 2025, the former first-round prospect has seen his statistical line drop to an unplayable level. He isn’t showcasing the same split in power or even the same contact abilities that made him a top prospect for the organization. Across all starters on the team, Kjerstad has the worst WAR number out of the group.
Per Baseball Savant, while his contact numbers are all down, he’s not whiffing as bad as he was last year. What his numbers show is a three-mile-per-hour decrease in his bat speed plus someone who is on top of the ball rather than making solid contact. There’s also a three-mile-per-hour decrease in his exit velocity. There might be a mechanics issue here.
A mechanical issue can be fixed with perhaps another stint in the minors. However, if it’s caused by an injury, it could permanently shift his ability to play. Watch how he plays this summer.
There’s a really good chance veteran Ramón Laureano takes his playing time. He’s hitting far better and isn’t striking out at a high clip. Kjerstad’s time with the Orioles might be running short if he can’t figure it out on offense.
2. Tyler O’Neill – Outfielder
2025 stats: 80 AB; .188/.280/.605; 27 K; 9 BB; 77 OPS+; 3 doubles; 2 HR; 10 RBI
The veteran outfielder came on as Baltimore’s premier moves during the offseason meant to propel them past the playoff hump. Instead, the Orioles currently see no return on investment into the three-year deal for the veteran outfielder.
Tyler O’Neill has only played 24 games this year due to two stints on the IL for neck and shoulder issues. In those games, O’Neill sports the second-worst slash line among all players on the team with more than 20 games played. The 29-year-old holds a strikeout-to-hit ratio of 2:1 while holding the fourth-lowest OBP on the team.
Tyler O’Neill is doing baseball activities. Rehab assignment soon. #orioles
— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) May 28, 2025
During his stint in Boston last year, O’Neill hit a respectable .247/.336/.847. Powered by his increase in home runs and doubles, it seemed to offset his high strikeout rate. Without the ability to turn at-bats into productive run-scoring opportunities, he’s not living up to the hype.
Unlike Kjerstad, the veteran outfielder hasn’t really seen a major decrease in bat speed. In fact, some of his batting values from barrel percentage to walk rate remain in the top half of the league. He has, however, run into another issue. His flyball rate has jumped to 41%. What’s worse is that his weak contact rate is near 10%, far higher than his 5.1% last year.
O’Neill appears to be having trouble squaring up on the ball, as evidenced by his higher tilt and attack angle. He might need to flatten his swing path to help the Orioles’ offense put up runs.
3. Ryan Mountcastle – First Baseman
2025 stats: 179 AB; .235/.271/.606; 45 K; 8 BB; 77 OPS+; 12 doubles; 2 HR; 15 RBI
Much like Kjerstad, Ryan Mountcastle was a top 100-ranked prospect in baseball in 2021 for the Orioles. In his last full season at Triple-A Norfolk, he had a .312/.344/.871 slash line. The first baseman is generally a very consistent producer, but this year has been anything but consistent.
The sixth-year pro is performing at the worst level of his career. The good news is that he’s not striking out more or walking terribly less, but the bad news is that his power has disappeared. This isn’t a one-year thing, however, it’s a gradual decline over his career. After hitting 33 home runs in 2021, he’s failed to hit 20 in 2023 and 2024 while only hitting two this year in 50 games.
There’s an easy explanation for Mountcastle’s declining power: He’s turning into a ground-ball hitter. Per Baseball Savant, coinciding with the first baseman’s declining home run tally, his ground ball rate has jumped to 44% over the last three years. In addition, nearly 30% of the balls in play are line drives, the highest of his career.
Again, it’s not a mechanical issue, it’s a change in his hitting philosophy. His quality of contact shows he’s on top of the ball more and his barrel rate is declining with age. With first base usually billed as a position for a power hitter, Mountcastle isn’t cutting it anymore for the Orioles’ offense. He can hit, but his decline in home runs complicates his path to staying on the team.
4. Adley Rutschman – Catcher
2025 stats: 175 AB; .211/.310/.659; 32 K; 24 BB; 93 OPS+; 7 doubles; 1 triple; 5 HR; 15 RBI
Adley Rutschman is a solid catcher with the ability to be one of the top players at his position. There is a reason why he’s been to two All-Star teams, earned runner-up honors for AL Rookie of the Year in 2022, and was an MVP candidate at one point.
He seems to be suffering from the same issues that most of the team is being plagued with, a lack of slugging. He has seen a decline in his slugging average, but it’s really gone down between 2024 and 2025. Yes, he’s still drawing walks and getting on base, creating run opportunities, but he’s not scoring runs.
Across all major statistical categories, Rutschman has not seen any significant changes to his game. His bat speed remains consistent and his exit velocity is actually stronger than ever. There have been some major issues hitting offspeed and breaking balls. In fact, his barrel percentage is the highest in his career.
It’s very likely that Rutschman is just running into a string of bad luck and unfortunate outs. On an Orioles team that seems to be on the verge of panic, rest assured the All-Star catcher is not one of those players to worry about. If it doesn’t get any better, or his performance declines, then it might be time to grow concerned.
What Do The Orioles Do?
At this moment in time, it seems the bulk of issues on offense for the Orioles come from the outfield. The team’s core out there is playing exceptionally poorly. In fact, it’s one of the worst outfields by WAR. When your best player is Laureano, there’s a problem.
It’s very likely the team will make a trade for an outfielder at the deadline if things don’t improve. There are rumblings that the Chicago White Sox will trade All-Star outfielder Luis Robert Jr. before July 31. That’s an option for a team desperate for power and versatility.
On the other hand, they can go with an internal solution. Dylan Beavers, the organization’s number six prospect, is hitting well at Triple-A, while Enrique Bradfield Jr. seeks to continue his solid 2024 campaign.
As for their first-baseman and catcher, if things do not improve at either spot, there is a chance No. 16 overall prospect Samuel Basallo will get the call to the majors. The 20-year-old is slugging a .245/.350/.909 across 30 games with nine home runs. If he keeps this torrid pace up, Mountcastle might find himself out of Baltimore soon. As for Rutschman, he’s earned some flexibility.
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