Losers in nine of their last 11 games, Baltimore will hope a series against their local rivals can jump start this floundering team.
When the O’s embarked upon their rebuild in 2019, the first sign I looked for that the Orioles were back to being a serious team was not having a winning record or making the playoffs, but being better than the Nationals.
That mountain seemed perhaps too lofty a peak to summit when, in the first year of Baltimore’s teardown, the Nats won the World Series. But in 2022, when the O’s won 83 games and the Nationals had the worst record in baseball, it looked like Baltimore was finally passing their local rivals in the league-wide race for contention. Three years later, and these are still two teams heading in different directions—but it’s no longer a positive thing for the Orioles.
Both Washington and Baltimore come into this weekend’s series tied in the loss column at 26. However, the air in Washington suddenly feels livelier and full of hope, while the sentiment around Baltimore is flatter than a Natty Boh you forgot about in your fridge.
The Nationals have one of the NL’s best ascending cores, built around OF James Wood, ace MacKenzie Gore and All-Star SS CJ Abrams. Unlike the Orioles, who built their core almost entirely through the draft and develop model, the Nationals are reaping the benefits of the trade that sent Juan Soto to the Padres in 2022. All three of Wood, Gore and Abrams were players Washington got back from a loaded San Diego farm system and they now represent the trio that they hope will return the Nats to national relevance.
Baltimore thought they had an even better core built around stars like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, but the entire Orioles roster seems to be in a collective slump to begin the 2025 season. Of the Orioles’ everyday players, only Henderson, Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn are giving them above-average production in 2025.
After the Orioles dominated this series the last five seasons (16-8 vs. the Nats from 2020 to 2024), the vulnerability of this O’s team showed up when they met in DC last month. Washington took two out of three in that series and held Baltimore to five runs combined. The Orioles were only spared from being swept thanks to one of the best starts of Cade Povich’s career—a feat he’ll look to repeat tonight in Game 1.
Game 1—Friday, May 16th, 7:05pm ET
Where to watch: MASN, MLB.TV
Probable pitchers: LHP Cade Povich (1-3, 5.55 ERA, 29 Ks) vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore (2-4, 3.59 ERA, 75 Ks)
Friday sees a rematch of the series finale in Washington, with a pair of young lefties squaring off. Povich got the better of Gore last time, throwing 6.2 innings of one-run ball with 5 Ks. Gore racked up more Ks (8 in 6.0 IP) than Povich, but ultimately took the L thanks to RBI singles from Mullins and O’Hearn in a 5th inning rally.
The Nationals provide an ideal matchup for Povich in that Wood, Abrams and Nathaniel Lowe are all lefties, while switch hitters Keibert Ruiz and Josh Bell both hit worse against LHPs. Povich’s splits are about as dramatic as you’ll see from a starting pitcher, with RHBs putting up a .322 average and .927 OPS while LHBs are hitting .200 with a .565 OPS. Working against Povich is the fact that he has a 7.94 ERA in Camden Yards vs. a 3.38 ERA on the road.
Gore is on a track to All-Star status thanks to a pair of great breaking balls, with him annihilating lefties with his slider and keeping righties in check with his curveball. We know Brandon Hyde will stack the lineup with righties against Gore, and look out for Ramón Laureano to be a difference maker Friday. The first-year Oriole is slugging 1.000 against curveballs through the first quarter of the season.
Game 2—Saturday, May 17th, 4:05pm ET
Where to watch: MASN, FS1, MLB.TV
Probable pitchers: RHP Kyle Gibson (0-2, 13.11 ERA, 9 Ks) vs. RHP Jake Irvin (2-1, 4.00 ERA, 34 Ks)
The Orioles re-signed Kyle Gibson as pitching depth in case pitchers like Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer and Povich struggled to provide the O’s reliable performances to round out their rotation. Instead, Gibson has arguably been the Orioles’ worst starter of the nine different starting pitchers Baltimore has rolled out this year.
Since allowing nine runs over 3.2 innings in his first start of 2025, Gibson has been slightly better in his next two outings. He allowed three runs over four innings his second start against Kansas City, before allowing five runs over four innings in his most recent start vs. the Angels. Gibson’s biggest weakness this season has been the home run ball, having surrendered seven homers over 11.2 innings this season.
Jake Irvin has a similar approach to Charlie Morton in that he leads with his curveball and uses his fastball and sinker to back it up. Irvin is a mediocre or worse pitcher in just about every aspect of his game, except for his ability to throw strikes. That means the O’s will get plenty of hitable curveballs in the zone, so look for O’Hearn to do some damage. The Orioles’ veteran 1B/DH is crushing curveballs this season to the tune of a .429 average and 1.429 OPS.
Game 3—Sunday, May 18th, 1:35pm ET
Where to watch: MASN, MLB.TV
Probable pitchers: RHP Zach Eflin (3-1, 3.13 ERA 13 Ks) vs. RHP Michael Soroka (0-2, 6.43 ERA, 15 Ks)
Sunday will be the only game of the series where the O’s have a decided pitching advantage, as Zach Eflin will look to build on his first start off the IL. Baltimore’s de facto ace was good but not great last Sunday in Anaheim, going 5.0 innings while allowing two runs and striking out five. With some questionable defense backing him up, he allowed two runs in the 1st inning but shut out the Halos over the next four to put him in line for the W.
The last time Eflin faced the Nationals, in Tropicana Field last June, he pitched six shutout innings with six Ks. He’s never faced Washington in Camden Yards, but has been strong in OPACY with a career 3.59 ERA in Baltimore. It’ll be a test of strength vs. strength in Eflin vs. the Nats; opponents are hitting .100 against Eflin’s cutter this season, but half of Washington’s lineup is hitting .385+ against cutters this season.
Soroka, the former All-Star, is in Year 3 of trying to regain his past form post-Achilles tear. After posting a 4.74 ERA in 25 starts for the White Sox last year, the 27-year-old has been decidedly below-average in three outings for Washington. He’s coming off a better outing against his former team, the Braves, allowing two runs over four innings while punching out four. Soroka has largely ditched his slider for a slurve this season as his primary breaking pitch. It should present a new challenge for the O’s, who have only seen 57 slurves all season.