There hasn’t been nearly as much change here as anticipated, and that might be a good thing for 2024.
Heading into the offseason, many speculated that changes could be coming to the Orioles’ outfield. The old guard of Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander was getting more expensive and inching closer to free agency. Meanwhile, a batch of talented youngsters appeared ready to burst onto the big league scene and take on everyday roles. Maybe it was time to pass the torch.
Instead, O’s GM Mike Elias stood firm. Rather than clearing the way for the next wave of talent to take over in Baltimore, he retained the incumbents. The 2024 season may still serve as a transition to a new era, but it won’t happen until the younger players beat out their elder peers.
That’s not to say the picture is entirely unchanged. Aaron Hicks, a valuable mid-season addition in 2023, joined the Angels over the winter. His 127 OPS+ and ability to play all three outfield spots will be missed. Ryan McKenna, a longtime depth option in the outfield, did not make the Opening Day roster. He seems destined to be claimed on waivers whenever he gets exposed.
At this point, it seems like the Orioles will aim to fill the “backup” and “depth” roles by moving players in and out of the lineup depending on the matchup rather than anointing any one player as the “fourth outfielder.”
Left field
Hays is coming off of the first all-star season of his career. His .275/.325/.444 batting line was the best of his career. But there were drastic differences between his performance in the first half (.853) and the second half (.667). On top of that, his .345 BABIP was crazy high, especially since his exit velocities are fairly pedestrian. It will be interesting to see if the Orioles look to spell him occasionally to hopefully avoid a similar second-half collapse.
Colton Cowser could be one of those options to sub in throughout the week. He had a great spring (.304/.418/.717) to earn a spot on the team, and he saw a handful of games in left field both last year with the Orioles and again down in Sarasota.
Center field
When he’s healthy, Mullins is one of the game’s best centerfielders. He’s a well-round weapon that can produce at the plate, steal bases, and flag down just about anything in the field. The problem is that he wasn’t healthy last year. Prior to his recurring abductor injuries, he had a .835 OPS. But after he returned from his first IL stint through the end of the season he put together a meager .614 OPS.
Mullins suffered a hamstring injury this spring as well and did not hit particularly well overall (3-for-27, no extra base hits). But spring performance doesn’t matter as much for veterans with proven track records. If he is truly healthy, he should be back to one of MLB’s most dynamic players.
Cowser is likely to pop up again in this spot. Center field is his natural position, having played it at Sam Houston State and spending most of his time there throughout his minor league development. Cowser does possess above-average speed and a strong arm. As he gets more comfortable with the major league game he could be a fine fielder in center, but Mullins is a superb glove and the clear starter going into the season.
Jorge Mateo has been talked about as an option in center this spring as well, but he only played 11 total innings there during the Grapefruit League season, so it did not appear to be huge priority for the club. He has major league experience at the position, including a handful of games with the Orioles last season. So, he will probably see some gametime there, especially in the event of a particularly tough lefty starter that Brandon Hyde may like to keep away from Mullins and Cowser.
Right field
This position could see the most movement. Ten different players started in right field for the Orioles last year, tied for the most of any non-DH spot in the lineup. Santander led the way with 96 starts, and he may once again be the most used right fielder in 2024. However, he also led the team in DH starts (47), and he has been pushed more and more towards DH in recent seasons. So there will be plenty of opportunities for others to step in.
Once again, Cowser should get the lions share of those chances. His glove and speed are an upgrade from Santander, and if Cowser can hit at all like he did in the spring there is a path for him to become the everyday right fielder while Santander could play more first base or DH.
The other player that could be a big contributor here is Ryan O’Hearn. He started 15 games in right field last year (and another three games in left field). If his bat is really heating up, this is a spot to get another lefty in the lineup.
Organizational depth
Kyle Stowers had a tremendous spring with seven home runs and a 1.011 OPS, but it wasn’t enough to make the club. Many of his attributes are redundant on this club as he is a left-handed bat, he doesn’t steal bases or play particularly great defense. And while he showed a ton of power in Sarasota he also struck out a lot (28.9% K rate) and barely walked (2.2% BB rate). If he isn’t traded he should still get a shot in Baltimore at some point, but his chance at ever earning an everyday role with the Orioles seems slim.
Peyton Burdick is a player so good that the Orioles acquired him twice this offseason, first in a trade from the Marlins and later in a waiver claim from the White Sox. He is a “fourth outfielder” type that has spent time on the Marlins major league roster each of the last two seasons. He can run a little bit and has some intriguing exit velocity data.
If McKenna does not get gobbled up on waivers, then there could still be a role for him within the organization. He is a similar player to Burdick, and the Orioles have liked his ability to hit left-handed pitching.
The prospects
Heston Kjerstad was a favorite to make the Opening Day roster back at the start of spring. But he had a brutal start to the Grapefruit League, and he racked up the strikeouts. He offers a power component that is lacking on the Orioles’ current roster, so should he cut down on the whiffs there should be an avenue for him to emerge in Baltimore later this summer.
The O’s outfield is so packed that the chances of any other prospects beyond Kjerstad making an impact in 2024 are remote. There is talk of both Coby Mayo and Connor Norby transitioning to outfield roles at some point. If that happens, they both could be banging on the big league door this season, but for now the organization seems to like them on the dirt.
Some youngsters that are farther away, but still intriguing, are Dylan Beavers, Jud Fabian, and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Beavers is yet another tall, lanky, left-handed hitter. He crushed it at Bowie last summer. Fabian is a toolsy player with a huge arm. Bradfield was the O’s top pick in 2023. He may be the fastest player in baseball and seems to be the heir apparent to Mullins in center.