Samuel Basallo’s offensive firepower has been the highlight of the Orioles’ minor leagues so far, but plenty of other prospects have raised or lowered their stock.
With minor league seasons now past the halfway point, it’s as good a time as any to check in on the players from Camden Chat’s composite Top 20 prospects list. Who’s improved their stock? Who’s going in the wrong direction? And what’s next for these guys? Let’s take a look.
#1 – C Samuel Basallo
Minors league stats: .264/.383/.591, 19 HR in 62 games (AAA)
Folks, Samuel Basallo is a stud. At the plate, you could hardly ask for anything better than a .975 OPS from a guy who won’t even turn 21 until next month. The slugging lefty’s bat is big league ready right now. His defense, on the other hand, needs work. A spring training injury kept him from catching until mid-May, and he still struggles with calling games and throwing out basestealers. Still, Basallo has put himself on track for a well-deserved big-league promotion in late August or September, unless the oblique injury he suffered this past weekend sidelines him longer than expected.
Prospect status: Rising
#2 – IF Coby Mayo
Minor league stats: .226/.318/.452, 8 HR in 45 games (AAA)
MLB stats: .195/.250/.293, 1 HR in 28 games
It’s been a weird season for Mayo. He was publicly discontented with getting sent down to Triple-A at the end of spring training, calling it a “lose-lose” situation. And his stats for Norfolk were, frankly, underwhelming. Then the O’s brought him up in late May and, after a sluggish start, he started looking more comfortable at the plate in June…only for the Orioles to inexplicably bench him, giving him only three starts in July so far. Mayo hasn’t displayed his prodigious power yet — his only major league homer came off of a position player — but the Orioles should be giving him everyday at-bats to fully evaluate what he can do. Hopefully he’ll get that chance after the trade deadline clears some roster space.
Prospect status: Graduated
#3 – OF Enrique Bradfield Jr.
Minor league stats: .257/.396/.372, 1 HR, 16 SB in 43 games (AA/High-A/Rookie)
If the O’s were eyeing Bradfield as a potential center field replacement for Cedric Mullins in 2026, that timeline is looking less feasible due to the 23-year-old’s repeated hamstring injuries this season. He missed nearly a month early in the season and has been sidelined again for part of July, reportedly re-aggravating the injury during the All-Star Futures Game. The hamstring troubles have robbed Bradfield of his most dynamic weapon, his speed, limiting him to just 18 stolen base attempts this year. Bradfield might not even make it up to Triple-A this season, eliminating any chance of his competing for a spot with the Orioles next spring.
Prospect status: Falling somewhat
#4 – OF Vance Honeycutt
Minor league season stats: .172/.295/.266, 3 HR, 131 K in 76 games (High-A)
Hoo boy. I will preface this by pointing out it’s common for first-round draft picks not to pan out, especially those drafted in the later part of the round. But Honeycutt, the Orioles’ #22 overall pick in 2024, has had an especially brutal introduction to pro ball. His swing-and-miss tendencies from his UNC college career have only intensified at Aberdeen, where he’s struck out in more than 40 percent of his plate appearances. His 131 whiffs are the most of any hitter in minor league baseball. And it’s not like he’s a three-true-outcomes guy who offsets his strikeouts with patience and power; Honeycutt has only a .295 OBP and three dingers. At 22, his career is by no means finished, but he needs a massive overhaul.
Prospect status: Plummeting like a rock
#5 – RHP Chayce McDermott
Minor league stats: 1-7, 7.12 ERA, 1.837 WHIP in 11 starts (AAA/AA)
MLB stats: 0-1, 8.22 ERA, 2.087 WHIP in 2 games
This is the year that McDermott, who spent all of 2024 at Triple-A plus one game in the bigs, was supposed to get a longer MLB audition. But a right lat strain landed him on the IL out of spring training and he’s been unable to find his command since, registering an awful 7.2 BB/9 at Norfolk. Last week McDermott left his outing with the dreaded “elbow discomfort,” and while the Orioles haven’t updated his condition, don’t expect good news.
Prospect status: Falling
#6 – OF Dylan Beavers
Minor league stats: .306/.404/.485, 11 HR in 74 games (AAA)
Beavers! This was a big year for the 2022 first round pick after a somewhat pedestrian 2024 performance, and he has taken the step forward that the O’s were hoping to see. In Triple-A, Beavers has made significant gains in his AVG, OBP, and SLG compared to last year, sporting an impressive .889 OPS after finishing the previous season at .750. He can also run the bases, currently 20-for-24 in stolen base attempts. If the Orioles trade Mullins at the deadline, Beavers should be first in line to replace him for an extended trial in the bigs, likely at a corner outfield spot with Colton Cowser moving to center.
Prospect status: Rising
#7 – IF Griff O’Ferrall
Minor league stats: .210/.299/.292, 4 HR, 23 SB in 79 games (High-A)
O’Ferrall, drafted 10 spots after Honeycutt in 2024, has had a similarly unimpressive first full season with the O’s organization. As the slash line indicates, he’s not hitting for average or power or getting on base. MLB Pipeline’s bio of O’Ferrall described him as a gamer who “has very good feel for the barrel and makes sound swing decisions,” but so far that hasn’t materialized.
Prospect status: Falling
#8 (tied) – RHP Michael Forret
Minor league stats: 1-2, 1.86 ERA, 0.848 WHIP in 12 starts (High-A)
You don’t often find intriguing prospects in the 14th round of the draft, but the O’s might have seen the Forret through the trees. Forret opened eyes last season with his deep arsenal of pitches and this year he’s putting up the numbers to prove it. The 21-year-old has maintained an impressive strikeout rate (11.5 K/9) while slashing his walk rate from 4.0 to 2.4 and his H/9 from 7.7 to 5.2. Forret missed all of May with a back injury but is healthy and dealing right now.
Prospect status: Rising
#8 (tied) – RHP Nestor German
Minor league stats: 3-5, 4.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP in 17 games/16 starts (AA/High-A)
The Seattle native and 2023 11th-rounder has had a quick ascent through the Orioles’ minors, dominating Low-A last year, starting this season at High-A and getting a promotion to Double-A Chesapeake after six starts. German hasn’t been overpowering with the Baysox, but at 23 he’s still nearly two years younger than the competition. A strong finish to this year could see him start 2026 in Triple-A.
Prospect status: Rising
#10 – RHP Patrick Reilly
Minor league stats: 0-1, 1.86 ERA, 1.034 WHIP in 3 starts (AA)
The O’s made a rare prospect-for-prospect trade at last year’s deadline by dealing superfluous outfielder Billy Cook for Reilly, an intriguing righty. But Reilly’s Orioles career barely got off the ground before he had to undergo Tommy John surgery this May. See you in late 2026 or 2027, Patrick.
Prospect status: Falling
#11 – LHP Luis De Leon
Minor league stats: 1-3, 4.44 ERA, 1.371 WHIP in 12 games/11 starts (High-A/Low-A)
As a lefty who can throw upper-90s heat, De Leon has always attracted plenty of prospect acclaim. But his performance just hasn’t matched the stuff. In eight games for High-A Aberdeen, he’s striking out only 7.3 batters per nine and is averaging nearly a baserunner and a half per inning. Still, like most players on this list, he’s young enough (22) to improve, and could be a few tweaks away from emerging as an up-and-coming power arm.
Prospect status: Falling somewhat
#12 (tied) – RHP Brandon Young
Minor league stats: 2-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 7 starts (AAA/High-A)
MLB stats: 0-4, 7.52 ERA, 1.785 WHIP in 6 starts
Even as Young broke out as a prospect the last couple of years and earned a 40-man spot this spring, there were questions about how well his stuff would translate to the majors. So far, he has failed to quell those doubts. He’s shown little ability to retire big league hitters in his six starts for the Orioles, though he did pitch an immaculate inning against the Mets. The rookie should get more chances to pitch for the Birds in this lost season, but he’ll need to show something in August and September to be considered more than an AAAA guy.
Prospect status: Nearly graduated
#12 (tied) – OF Jud Fabian
Minor league stats: .221/.332/.441, 12 HR in 65 games (AAA)
Fabian is another O’s prospect with power potential who simply strikes out too much. He’s struck out in 31% of his PAs in his pro career, though that was down slightly to 28% this season before he suffered a left wrist strain in late June. The Orioles would have to add Fabian to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. I’m not sure whether he’s shown enough offensively for them to do so, though he is considered an excellent defensive center fielder.
Prospect status: Falling
#14 – C/IF Ethan Anderson
Minor league stats: .211/.285/.289, 1 HR in 52 games (High-A)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: a 2024 Orioles draftee is having a lousy season. Between Honeycutt, O’Ferrall, and Anderson, early returns on last year’s class are…not great. Baseball Prospectus described Anderson as a hitter who “handles premium velocity without issue and doesn’t really have a hole in plate approach or swing,” but he hasn’t handled the challenge of High-A pitching so far.
Prospect status: Falling
#15 (tied) – RHP Keeler Morfe
Minor league stats: 0-2, 9.00 ERA, 3.667 WHIP in 5 games (Low-A/Rookie)
Morfe, a 19-year-old Venezuelan, may be an unfamiliar name for most O’s fans but dominated the Dominican Summer League last year with a fastball that reportedly touched 100 mph. His debut season in the U.S., though, has been much less successful. Morfe has issued an unsightly 18 walks (and two hit batsmen) in six innings, which almost feels like it has to be a typo. He missed nearly three months with a right ring finger sprain.
Prospect status: Falling
#15 (tied) – RHP Trey Gibson
Minor league stats: 3-4, 3.82 ERA, 1.151 WHIP in 16 games/15 starts (AA/High-A)
Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2023, Gibson has added velocity while moving up the organizational ladder. He’s split his season nearly equally between Aberdeen (34.1 IP) and Chesapeake (38.2) and continues to improve, racking up 13.8 K/9 between the two levels. He’ll face another challenge in Triple-A next year, but the 23-year-old is quickly becoming one of the Birds’ best pitching prospects.
Prospect status: Rising
#17 – RHP Cameron Weston
Minor league stats: 2-5, 4.55 ERA, 1.379 WHIP in 19 games/18 starts (AAA)
Weston’s strong 2024 season — 2.97 ERA, 1.009 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 — landed him at Triple-A to start this year, and if he’d continued to put up those kinds of numbers for Norfolk, we might have already seen him in the majors by now. But he’s had trouble throwing strikes for the Tides, inflating his BB/9 rate up to an untenable 4.7 after a decent 2.4 last year.
Prospect status: Falling somewhat
#18 (tied) – RHP Trace Bright
Minor league stats: 1-7, 5.40 ERA, 1.465 WHIP in 14 starts (AA)
The fifth rounder from the 2022 draft is repeating the Double-A level and has been worse than last year, with his BB/9 rising by nearly two full points (4.8 to 6.4) and his K/9 dropping by even more (9.6 to 7.5). The future no longer seems so Bright for Trace.
Prospect status: Falling
#18 (tied) – IF Leandro Arias
Minor league stats: .219/.315/.273, 2 HR in 78 games (High-A)
Arias was a top-50 international prospect when the O’s signed him from the Dominican in 2022, and they’ve promoted him aggressively — perhaps too aggressively. At 20 years old, Arias is very young for the High-A level, so it’s hard to critique his .589 OPS too harshly. But he’ll probably be staying at that level for a long while if the bat doesn’t come around.
Prospect status: Falling somewhat
#20 – C/IF Creed Willems
Minor league stats: .250/.339/.429, 10 HR in 75 games (AA)
The husky Texan, the only high schooler the O’s selected among their 21 draftees in 2021, would be having a great year if only June didn’t exist. But that month — in which Willems was 10-for-71 with a .460 OPS — has diluted his overall numbers. Even still, Willems leads the Baysox with 10 home runs this year while being 1.7 years young for the league. His future position is more likely to be first base than catcher, although he does have a solid 32% caught stealing rate behind the plate.
Prospect status: Rising
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There are, of course, some players who weren’t on our preseason list who have played their way into prospect status (Braxton Bragg, Nate George, Yasmil Bucce, to name a few). It’s a safe bet that this list will look a lot different this time next year.