The Orioles are 4-3 vs the Rays this year
The Orioles are starting the second half of the season on the road in Tampa, where temps will run in the mid-90s and the sun will be out. It’s gonna be a sweaty one.
When the Orioles and Rays last met less than a month ago, the Rays were on the verge of first place in the A.L. East. They were a half-game out of first place and had a firm grasp on the first Wild Card spot. Their 22-8 loss to the Orioles kicked off a run of 4-12, the worst record in the AL in that time. They’ve dropped to fourth place in the AL East and are now 1.5 games out of the Wild Card.
They lost the series against the Orioles as well as series against the A’s, Twins, Tigers, and Red Sox to close out the first half.
Aside from two solid losses to the Orioles (22-8 and 5-1), the Rays haven’t been getting blown out in their cold streak. Eight of their 12 losses have been by one or two runs. They just can’t close the deal. Part of that is the bullpen, as the team suffered one extra-innings and three walk-off losses. Overall, their relief pitchers have allowed 37% of inherited runners to score, the worst in the American League.
This could be why the Rays opted to trade for Bryan Baker. Baker has made just one appearance for the Rays since the trade, just after it happened. He did poorly. How many Orioles do you think he’ll strike out this weekend? And will he moonwalk?
Game 1: Friday, July 18th, 7:35 pm – MASN2
Charlie Morton (14 GS, 5.18 ERA, 88 K / 38 BB) vs Taj Bradley (19 GS, 4.60 ERA, 90 K / 40 BB)
How many starts do you think Charlie Morton has left with the Orioles? His ERA is still ghastly, but he has a 3.05 ERA since April 29th. He’s been back in the rotation full time since May 26th, and in that time his ERA is 2.76. You have to think he’ll be traded soon. Morton has made one start against the Rays this year, and it was a good one. He allowed one run on six hits in six innings with no walks and seven strikeouts.
Taj Bradley has twice faced the Orioles this season and has twice done very poorly. On June 18th, Bradley got knocked out of the game after just 1.1 innings. He got knocked around for seven runs in that time. And on June 29th, he pitched into the sixth inning but allowed five runs.
Game 2: Saturday, July 19th, 7:05 pm – MASN 2
Dean Kremer (18 GS, 4.24 ERA, 88 K / 27 BB) vs Zack Littell (19 GS, 3.56 ERA, 80 K / 17 BB)
Dean Kremer is Dean Kremer, right? He’ll either give up five runs or zero runs, pretty much. And you never know what it’ll be on any given day. His last start before the All-Star break was a beaut against the Marlins with seven shutout innings. Maybe he can do it again. Or maybe he’ll be bad. That’s the excitement of Dean. So far this year, he has put up two good starts vs the Rays.
Zack Littell has a solid ERA but his 4.96 FIP doesn’t back it up. He has surrendered 24 home runs, which leads the league. He doesn’t strike out many but he keeps his walks down. Like Kremer, Littell has faced this opponent twice this year. On June 17th, Littell pitched a 6-inning, three-run quality start. On the 28th, he got the win with seven innings of one-run ball.
Game 3: Sunday, July 20th, 12:10 pm – MASN2
Trevor Rogers (6 GS, 1.53 ERA, 32 K / 10 BB vs Ryan Pepiot (20 GS, 3.38 ERA, 110 K / 37 BB)
Don’t look now, but it’s team ace Trevor Rogers. Rogers has made six starts for the Orioles since arriving from the minors, and five of them have been very good. Unfortunately, his lone clunker came against the Rays. This will be his chance to turn that around. Every time he starts, it’s another chance to imagine him as an important part of the 2026 team as well.
Ryan Pepiot is having a good season, but his two starts against the Orioles have been opposites. He started the 22-8 loss and was knocked out in the second inning. He also pitched eight one-run innings with 11 strikeouts in a Rays win on June 16th. Which Pepiot will we see this weekend? Well, he’s a pretty high strikeout guy, which makes me think the Orioles will flounder. But two of his last four starts have been underwhelming, so maybe he’s on a downward swing.