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Orioles-Royals Wild Card Series preview: Offense

September 30, 2024 by Camden Chat

Kanasas City Royals v Baltimore Orioles
Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

The Orioles boast a powerful lineup, while the Royals will look to run against Game 1 starter Corbin Burnes.

The 2024 postseason field is set, and the Orioles will host the Royals in a best-of-three series at Camden Yards. Baltimore will carry lofty goals into the playoffs for the second consecutive year, but it will jump right into the action this season. The O’s would travel to New York with a series victory, but we’ll cross that bridge if/when we get there.

The Royals earned their trip to Baltimore by jumping the Tigers on the final day of the regular season. They finished the regular season 10 games above .500 (86-76) after losing 106 games in 2023.

As expected, both teams will send out their top arms to start the series. The Orioles will face Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and potentially Michael Wacha, while the Royals will face Corbin Burnes in Game 1. Zach Eflin and Dean Kremer are the logical choices to start Games 2 and 3.

The Orioles offense starts with the long ball. Baltimore finished second in the majors with 235 home runs. Anthony Santander led the team with 44, and Gunnar Henderson followed with 37. Colton Cowser submitted his Rookie of the Year application with 24 big flies, and Adley Rutschman finished the season with 19 dingers.

Bobby Witt Jr. hit a team-high 32 homers for Kansas City. Veteran Salvador Pérez followed with 27, and injured first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino added 19. Pasquantino hit the IL with an injured thumb last month, but he could return for the series. The Royals playoff roster was not finalized at the time of this writing.

The Royals finished 20th in baseball with 170 homers. Orioles fans know all too well that KC can win a playoff series with small ball, but homers break games in the postseason. Every single player in Baltimore’s lineup holds a legitimate chance to leave the yard, which should provide the Orioles an advantage.

The O’s don’t need to live by the long ball, but there’s certainly concern if the power goes out in Baltimore. The Royals offensive success will likely depend on a player making his postseason debut.

Witt won the batting title yesterday with a .332 average. The 24-year-old led Kansas City in hits (211), homers (32), doubles (45), triples (11), walks (57), and RBIs (109). Witt will likely finish second in the AL MVP race behind New York’s Aaron Judge, and it’s difficult to imagine Kansas City winning the series without a significant contribution from its best player.

The Birds may hold the power advantage, but the Royals get the nod in the speed department. Kansas City swiped 134 bags on the season compared to Baltimore’s 98. Burnes struggled to hold runners throughout the season, and KC will put him to the test in Game 1.

Maikel Garcia led the Royals with 37 bags, while Witt tied for second with 31. Dairon Blanco, who has primarily served as a pinch-runner down the stretch, matched Witt with 31 steals.

Cedric Mullins (32) and Henderson (21) represent Baltimore’s two best threats on the bases. Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday can take a bag in the right situation, but the Orioles miss Jorge Mateo in this category.

The Orioles finished 4-2 against the Royals this season. Baltimore outscored Kansas City 29-27 and capitalized on big hits from Jordan Westburg and James McCann. McCann could easily start Game 1 with Kansas City starting a lefty and Baltimoire sending out Burnes. McCann hit a three-run homer in yesterday’s 6-2 victory over the Twins.

On paper, the Orioles have more players that can beat you. If Pasquantino cannot go, the Royals will send out only three players with an above-average wRC+. Michael Massey (102 wRC+) qualifies as the third biggest threat after Witt and Pérez.

Ryan Mountcastle, Ramón Urías, and Westburg did not show any signs of rust after returning in September. Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn can match up against any pitcher, while Westburg serves as a natural fit in the two-hole.

The Orioles offense underwent a significant slump in the second half before returning a trio of right-handed hitters. Anything can happen in a short series, but this healthy lineup appears to have the advantage over the Royals right now.

Filed Under: Orioles

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