Tarik Skubal and an MLB-leading Detroit come to town in what will be a tough matchup for the Orioles.
Because I was a kid watching baseball in the ‘90s, I will always expect the Detroit Tigers to be bad. So it’s a little surprising, a little bitter, to watch the massive success story that is the Tigers this year and wonder what they did these last few seasons that the Orioles didn’t to end up as the best team in baseball currently, with an MLB-best 43-24 record.
I mean, the answer is: pitch well and hit well. It helps to have the No. 1 pitcher in the AL in Tarik Skubal, who’s allowed one run in his last 23 2/3 innings to lower his ERA to 2.16. Add to that a 1.84 FIP and 15-to-1 K/BB ratio and it’s pretty clear why the southpaw Skubal, who took home the AL Cy Young Award last year, is the current frontrunner for a repeat victory.
Elsewhere in the Tigers’ rotation, Jack Flaherty continues his unexpected resurgence (3.74 FIP, 10.7 K/9 in 71.1 IP), and Casey Mize and Reese Olson have both been really good. The Tigers also have a top-notch closer in Will Vest, who’s flaunting a 1.67 ERA and 242 ERA+ in 32.1 innings.
Another reason for Detroit’s success thus far is their offense, which is one of the Top 3 in the AL along several metrics. Only the Yankees and Boston have scored more runs, and only Boston has a higher BABIP than Detroit’s .305. Among the team offensive leaders are rookie catcher Dillon Dingler (.287 BA, .767 OPS, 1.6 WAR), onetime Orioles foe Gleyber Torres (.269 BA, .775 OPS), centerfielder Javier Báez (.270 BA, .717 OPS) and 1B Spencer Torkelson (.237 BA, .842 OPS), who’s leading the team with 15 home runs. This is not a team built for speed, however: they’re last in the majors in steals.
Buckle up, Birdland: this could be a tough next few days. The Orioles still haven’t announced their pitchers for the upcoming series, but here are our best guesses.
Game 1: Tuesday, June 10th, 6:35pm ET, MASN 2
Probable pitchers: TBD (probably Cade Povich (1-4, 5.11 ERA, 58 K)) vs. RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long (0-0, 7.36 ERA, 3 K)
The lefty Povich has been boom-and-bust this season but his last time out, he delivered a gutsy start against a tough Seattle, going 5.1 innings and allowing two earned runs with just one walk—a good sign for the sometimes command-challenged Povich. One thing Povich is not having trouble doing is striking out hitters: he’s got 58 in 56.1 innings, good for a 9.27 K/9.
The 27-year-old Sawyer Gipson-Long has a lot of last names, looks like, and not a lot of MLB experience. In his debut 2023 year, he started just four games, pitching to a 2.70 ERA with a .189 opposing average. He’s missed a ton of time with injuries, unfortunately, and was just activated off the IL on June 4 after missing over a year due to hip and Tommy John surgery. Oof. In one start this season, against Chicago, he went 3.2 innings and allowed three runs.
Game 2: Wednesday, June 11th, 6:35pm ET, MASN
Probable pitchers: TBD (probably RHP Zach Eflin (5-2, 4.42 ERA, 31 K)) vs. RHP Casey Mize (6-1, 2.91 ERA, 48 K)
When he’s been healthy, Zach Eflin has been really good for Baltimore since coming over in a midseason trade in 2024. He missed about a month this spring with a lat strain, and has shown signs of shakiness/fatigue since. For what it’s worth, he looked brilliant on May 30 against a bad White Sox offense, going seven full innings with no runs and four hits allowed. His last time out, against Seattle, he turned in a competent six innings with three runs and seven strikeouts.
This is the first of two, let’s not sugarcoat it, really tough matchups for Baltimore. Detroit’s 1-1 pick in 2018, Mize is having his best season statistically, at 6-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. That being said, the 28-year-old righthander’s stats seems to be getting a boost from the Tigers’ strong offense. A .244 opposing average, 7.76 K/9 and 2.59 BB/9 aren’t wow numbers.
Game 3: Thursday, June 12th, 6:35pm ET, MASN2
Probable pitchers: TBD (probably RHP Dean Kremer (5-5, 4.70 ERA, 51 K)) vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (6-2, 2.16 ERA, 105 K)
Dean Kremer had a bad April (6.75 ERA), a great May (2.72 ERA), and then June started off kinda weird, as he allowed five runs to an unexpectedly-resilient Athletics. His fastball command was off that day, making him seem quite hittable. That won’t work well against Spencer Torkelson.
As we mentioned, Skubal, last year’s AL Cy Young winner and current frontrunner for a repeat is doing everything well right now: he’s leading the league in FIP (1.85), walk rate (0.8), strikeout rate (11.3) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (15.00). His 105 strikeouts are second in the AL to only Garrett Crochet. Did I mention he’s a lefty? Bold move if you pick the Orioles to win this one.