There wasn’t much for Orioles fans to be excited about back in 2021, as they ultimately lost 110 games that season. Center fielder Cedric Mullins was the exception to that, however, as the then-26-year-old broke out in a big way that year with a .291/.360/518 slash line in 159 games while playing strong defense in center. Flash forward to 2025 and while the Orioles are certainly not going to lose 110 games, their fans are once again staring down disappointment as their 10-17 record puts them dead last in the AL East. Amid that disappointment, however, Mullins is once again emerging as a bright spot.
Now in his age-30 season, the club’s center fielder is putting on by far the best offensive performance of his career. He’s slashing .279/.421/.547 in his first 107 trips to the plate, production that’s good for an incredible 185 wRC+. His six home runs put him on pace for a career-best mark over a full season, and he’s pairing that surge in power with a massive 17.8% walk rate while maintaining a fairly low 19.6% strikeout rate. He remains an impressive baserunner as well, with five stolen bases in six attempts, and that entire offensive package has been paired with his typically-stellar defense.
In all, it’s the sort of scorching start that would be MVP-caliber if maintained over a full season; only Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. have posted more fWAR than Mullins in the AL this year. That sort of season would not only help the Orioles get back into the conversation for a playoff spot, but it would be game-changing for Mullins himself ahead of his first foray into free agency this winter. In a free agent class that has long looked relatively light on quality offensive options, a strong offensive season for Mullins could earn him quite the raise on the open market as was the case for fellow outfielders Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar this past offseason following their own strong walk years.
Just how feasible is it for Mullins to maintain this production? Some of it certainly looks sustainable. He’s posting a career-high in hard-hit rate (40.0%) while posting his best barrel rate (7.7%) since his 30-homer campaign in 2021, so there’s some reason for optimism about his power increase. His .305 BABIP is within spitting distance of his .290 career mark, and a 20.3% line drive rate (his best since 2020) provides an easy explanation for the slight increase. In general, Mullins is elevating the ball more than he ever has before in his career with a ground ball rate of just 26.6% and a launch angle of 24.1 degrees, both career-best marks. With that said, his aforementioned barrel and hard-hit rates are both still below league average and seem unlikely to keep generating homers at quite this level and his .423 expected slugging percentage is more than 100 points below his actual figure.
While the sustainability of Mullins’ newfound power is questionable, his improved plate discipline is backed up by underlying numbers. Mullins is swinging just 42.1% of the time, the lowest figure he’s posted since his debut season in 2018, and most of that patience has come against pitches outside of the zone. He’s swinging at balls outside the strike zone just 20.7% of the time, and he’s combined that with a knack for making contact on pitches in the zone, connecting on 90.8% of his in-zone swings. It’s led to a swinging-strike rate of just 7.5% so far this year and, while his gargantuan 17.8% walk rate will almost certainly come down at some point, it’s easy to imagine this sort of approach resulting in a career-best walk rate for Mullins, who walked in just 8.1% of his career plate appearances entering this season.
While some regression appears all but guaranteed to come for Mullins eventually, there’s enough real improvements to his approach that it’s not hard to imagine him matching or perhaps even surpassing his career-best 2021 campaign. Mullins’ .366 xwOBA, while nearly 60 points below his current wOBA, is actually 22 points higher than his 2021 figure and by far the best of his career. That expected number puts Mullins in the same ballpark as players like Witt, Seiya Suzuki, and Francisco Lindor this year, and it’s in line with the production of Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, and Corey Seager at the plate last season.
How do MLBTR readers think Mullins’ platform season will play out? Will he enter free agency coming off of a career year, end up in line with his 2021 numbers, or regress back to his career norms? Have your say in the poll below:
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