The starting rotation has inched closer to its ceiling over the last few weeks, but the Orioles cannot dig out of this hole without a significant jump in offensive production.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
At no point in the 21st century have the Orioles entered a season expecting to ride the starting rotation to a World Series. Expectations have varied year to year, but the club has never featured the type of talent that guarantees a legitimate opportunity to win a championship.
The rotation overachieved in 2014, but the real talent resided in the bullpen. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells broke out in 2023, but the Birds once again rode a group of relievers and timely hitting to an AL East banner.
On paper, the Orioles possessed their highest level of starting pitching talent just last year. Mike Elias acquired Corbin Burnes to lead a rotation featuring a top-five Cy Young Award finalist, a lefty with a no-hitter under his belt, a former top pitching prospect, and significant depth.
Of course, that’s not how things shook out. The Orioles announced injuries to Bradish and John Means at the start of camp, and the Birds suffered an absolutely brutal stretch of pitching injuries throughout the season.
The health issues left the Birds in a familiar position—they would only go as far as the offense took them. Unfortunately, even when the rotation delivered, the offense flamed out when it mattered most.
For a variety of reasons, the Birds are right back in a similar situation. They did not sign a top-tier free agent to replace Burnes. They haven’t prioritized pitching in the draft. Veteran signings Charlie Morton and Kyle Gibson have yielded disastrous results.
The Birds are teetering on the edge of no return in 2025. Some may say they’ve reached it already, but it’s a long season in a third-wild card sport. The O’s gained some momentum with a series victory in LA, and they’ve been getting what they need out of the rotation of late.
Zach Eflin’s return marked a significant milestone. Tomoyuki Sugano has been a delight, and Dean Kremer has pitched to his potential over his last few starts. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to hope for much more than that. Grayson Rodriguez remains a question mark with both elbow and lat issues.
Trevor Rogers has struggled at Triple-A. Both Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott still possess potential but lack a big league track record. Bradish and/or Wells should return in the second half, but the O’s don’t have time to wait around.
With few options remaining, the Birds have to go down swinging. Fortunately, Sunday’s victory over a left-handed starter provided the latest cause for optimism.
Gunnar Henderson slashed .333/.382/.608 over the last week. Henderson quickly became the straw that stirs the drink in Baltimore’s offense, and the Birds will only go as far as the 23-year-old takes them.
Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn entered the week tied for the team lead with seven homers, but Henderson still represents the biggest power threat in a lineup missing 44 long balls from Anthony Santander.
O’Hearn deserves a tremendous amount of credit for his 174 OPS+ over his first 100 at bats. The righty has made a significant case to play every day with a .294/.368/.412 line in 19 at bats against lefties.
O’Hearn’s surge has come at the perfect time to offset Ryan Mountcastle’s 74 OPS+. Mountcastle showed signs of life last week with a .321/.333/.429 line over a seven game stretch, but the former first-round pick has yet to provide Baltimore the type of power threat they need. Coby Mayo still represents a long term option at the corners, but Mayo failed to make a positive impression on either side of the ball during his first two stints at the big league level.
The Birds should gain a boost when Ramón Urías and Jordan Westburg return. Surprisingly, Urías has been the infielder with greater contributions, but Westburg still projects as a quality hitter moving forward.
Speaking of infielders that project well long term, Jackson Holliday turned heads with a .300/.349/.475 line over the last two weeks. The former top prospect has shined while fellow 1-1 pick Adley Rutschman continues to blend bad luck with below-average performances at the dish.
Individual hitters ebb and flow throughout a season, but Baltimore’s team numbers are down for a club that needs to compensate for a lack of talent on the mound. The Orioles have struggled all year with runners in scoring position. They rank 11th in the big leagues with 46 homers, but they are 27th in baseball with 138 RBIs. Only the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, Rangers and Pirates have scored fewer runs than the O’s in 2025.
Cowser, Mountcastle, O’Neill, Rutschman and Westburg have all provided less production than anticipated. That’s over half a lineup. All five have the talent to help right the ship when healthy, but the Orioles can only fall so many games below .500 in the first half.
It’s no secret that it takes runs to win a ball game, but the Birds have been pigeonholed into being a one-dimensional team. The currently-configured starting rotation no longer resembles a death sentence, but it’s up to the bats to give this team life in 2025.