Added power, continued aggression, and unparalleled depth has the Orioles offense among the game’s elite early in 2024.
The Orioles offense was a lot of fun in 2023. They were aggressive on the bases, often going from first to third or taking the extra base whenever possible. They came through in the clutch, the redeeming factor of Adam Frazier’s tenure in Baltimore. And, most importantly, they scored a solid amount of runs, finishing seventh in MLB. But that version of the lineup stopped short of being dominant. Things feel different so far in 2024.
First things first: The Orioles are scoring more runs this year. They are fifth in MLB in runs scored, but they have played fewer games than all but one team (Braves) above them. In terms of runs per game, they are averaging 5.81, nearly a run higher than what they finished with in 2023 (4.98).
The biggest difference between the two seasons is power production. The 2024 Orioles are atop the league with 33 home runs, and they are second—behind Atlanta—with a .464 slugging percentage. Last year they were 10th in slugging (.421) and 17th in home runs. The most home runs on the team was just 28 by both Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson. A handful of players are on pace to exceed 30 bombs this year.
That depth is also a distinguishing factor on this year’s team. Every lineup that Brandon Hyde puts forward has the potential to do damage unlike any one else in the league. The Orioles are the only team with eight hitters that have both 50 or more plate appearances and a wRC+ of 120 or better. Eight! That is nearly an entire lineup full of players 20% above league average in terms of creating runs.
And what are these players doing to create so many runs? Putting the ball in play…like a lot! No other team walks less than the Orioles (6.5%), which has caused their on-base percentage to lag a bit behind their other metrics (.318, 15th in MLB). Fortunately, they also don’t strike out too much (20.8%, 10th-lowest). Both numbers are lower than the 2023 team (8.4% BB rate, 22.4% K rate).
That change feels like a concerted organizational effort. Just recently Hyde said that Colton Cowser had been too patient last year when he walked 16.9% of the time—similar to the 16.0% walk rate he had in Triple-A in 2023—but batted .115/.286/.148 in his initial taste of the big leagues. He’s walking just 7.1% this year. Henderson has seen his walk rates decline from 12.1% in 2022 to 9.0% in ‘23, and now to 7.3% in ‘24. Adley Rutschman is walking half as much, from 13.4% last year to 6.5% this year.
Walk rates only take about 120 plate appearances to stabilize. Most of the O’s top players will hit that threshold in about a week, so while there is certainly still room for change, a big swing in outcomes seems unlikely.
The ability to put the ball in play does pair nicely with some insane exit velocities. The O’s 90.5 mph average exit velocity is the highest in baseball, and their 44.5% hard hit rate is second in MLB—again behind Atlanta (sensing a theme here?).
While the Orioles have seemingly gotten more aggressive—and stronger—in the box, they have maintained their feisty base-running. According to FanGraphs Base Running metric BsR, the Orioles are the league’s best base-running team at 3.2 BsR. Unsurprisingly, Henderson and his hair-on-fire style of going bag-to-bag paces the team at 1.2 BsR, but Jorge Mateo (0.9), Jordan Westburg (0.8), Colton Cowser (0.7), and Cedric Mullins (0.4) have been big contributors as well.
An element of BsR is grounding into double plays, something the Orioles just do not do. They have ground into just five double plays on the season, the lowest in MLB and three fewer than any other team (the Yankees lead the league with 24). That is likely the result of two things: the Orioles low ground ball rate (40.4%), and the fact that their roster is littered with speedsters.
Mateo is an elite sprinter. Jackson Holliday, Henderson, and Westburg are in the top 15 percent of runners in the game. Mullins and Cowser are well above average. Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn both get down the line well for big guys. And Rutschman is quick for a catcher. The only member of the daily lineup that can be described as out-and-out slow is Santander.
As all of these factors stack up, you start to see why the Orioles offense is producing at such a ridiculous rate. They are capable of winning a baseball game in many different ways and rather than shooting themselves in the foot with a double play or a TOOTBLAN they tend to put the pressure on the opposition with stolen bases or timely hits.
On top of that, this lineup is far from a one-man show. Six different hitters are OPS’ing over .800. Five different players have a stolen base. Platoons are possible at nearly every position. It is a ridiculous display of depth and talent that, right now, is only matched by the Braves throughout the entire league.
And it feels fair to say that these Orioles are far from a finished product. Their top prospect, Holliday, is 1-for-30 in his young career. That will improve. Austin Hays was an all-star last year that has begun the year in a funk. His numbers will go up, even if in a reduced role. Not to mention the gaggle of hitting prospects still working away in Triple-A Norfolk.
While there could be some negative regression to come, and every member of the lineup will experience a slump at some point in the season, these Orioles appear uniquely qualified to absorb those sorts of dips and keep on producing.