Once touted as a potential World Series contender, the Baltimore Orioles find themselves in an early free-fall a third of the way into the 2025 baseball season. The young core of prospects, from Gunnar Henderson to Jackson Holliday, have found limited success at the plate. Only one consistent player, first baseman Ryan O’Hearn, has an OPS above .800 for the team.
The biggest story, however, is the team’s lack of dependent pitching in both the rotation and the bullpen. The team holds the second-worst ERA in all of the major leagues and the third-worst WHIP as of Monday afternoon. In fact, the entire pitching staff’s wins above replacement is -2.5 as of Monday afternoon, the second worst above the Colorado Rockies.
If the Orioles are looking to the minors for any help, there aren’t any real bright spots either. The team’s Triple-A affiliate has the fourth-worst ERA in the International League and fifth-worst WHIP. The situation isn’t only not going to get better, there’s a chance it will get worse.
Orioles Pitching Staff in Dire Straits
Rotation
The most obvious issue with the Orioles pitching dilemma is their faltering rotation. In the wake of Corbin Burnes signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the team made a flurry of signings to bolster the hole in the staff. The team’s three premier pitching signings, Tomoyuki Sugano; Charlie Morton, and Kyle Gibson, are underwhelming to put it lightly.
The Baltimore Orioles are the only pitching staff in baseball that has a negative fWAR
They are all the way down at -1.0. pic.twitter.com/egqLU0k6gF
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) May 24, 2025
Firstly, the 41-year-old Morton has been a disaster for the Orioles. In six starts with the team, the veteran right-hander has an ugly 7.68 ERA along with a WHIP of 1.756. His walk rate has ballooned to five per nine innings, while his home run rate has ballooned to two.
Morton’s decline was already apparent in the last few seasons. His walk rate consistently stayed over three between 2022 and 2024, while his home run rate hovered between 0.8 and 1.5. His strikeouts also declined from 10.7 per nine in 2022 to 9.1 in 2024. No one could have predicted his stunning collapse this year, however.
Gibson, who last pitched with the Orioles in 2023, performed even worse than Morton. In four starts, the veteran holds an unsightly 16.78 ERA over 12 1/3 innings and a WHIP of 2.919. It was so bad for Gibson that the team released him on May 18.
Sugano, the last of three key signings for their rotation, thankfully is panning out well. In his first 10 starts, the 35-year-old Japanese right-hander is tossing a 3.07 ERA with a 1.023 WHIP. Despite only striking out 32 batters in 58 2/3 innings, he’s walked 10 batters. His numbers are, by far, the best in the rotation.
As for other pitchers, including Dean Kremer, left-hander Cade Povich, and Zach Eflin, all three have ERAs over 4.50 and an elevated home run rate. None of the above starters have a strikeout rate over nine, with Kremer and Eflin holding a 6.5 and 4.9 rate over nine, respectively. Povich has surrendered more hits than he has innings pitched, not including walks.
The rotation is currently suffering not from a lack of consistency, but a continuous streak of poor performances. With the exception of Sugano, the staff has individual issues that are plaguing their performances, complicating the path to fixing the staff. That’s not even mentioning the injuries to Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish.
Bullpen
For the Orioles pitching, there is some good news in the bullpen. There are a few players who are dependable in close games, but these appearances are unfortunately few and far between.
Bryan Baker appears to be the most surprising performer throughout the entire staff. His ERA has decreased from five in 2024 to a pleasing 1.93 in 2025, with a 0.857 WHIP. His walk rate has also decreased, along with a sharp uptick in strikeouts through nine innings. He’s turning into their best bullpen asset quickly, a great sight among a disastrous staff.
Baker’s successes could be attributed to his higher use of his changeup, along with an increase in the pitch’s velocity. He’s also throwing the four-seamer with a little more spin, around 100 more rotations per minute. It’s a small change, but it could explain his newfound success.
Keegan Akin holds the next-best statistics in the bullpen. While his ERA has declined slightly, his WHIP has increased to 1.240 from .941 the season prior. He’s striking out guys, but his walk rate has doubled so far this season.
Looking at the three other, more prestigious bullpen assets in Félix Bautista, Gregory Soto, and Seranthony Dominguez, the same issues arise. Bautista, who is the team’s closer, has a walk rate of over six per nine innings. Soto has a WHIP nearing 1.500 and Dominguez has a walk rate of 6.5. This isn’t even mentioning home run rates over one, with Soto being the lone exception across all players with more than 10 innings pitched.
The bullpen is suffering from the same ailments as the rotation: a lack of good consistency and a plethora of walk and home run issues. This is not a singular issue, but a widespread problem that potentially stems from the development of their arms.
Lack Of Depth
By far the biggest issue the Orioles pitching staff has to face this year is not their current woes, but how they plan to fix them. Usually, a team will dip into their farm to try and find a stopgap solution for a pitching issue. Maybe they’ll use that capital to trade for a temporary, or perhaps permanent solution.
The Orioles do not have that, especially at the Triple-A level.
The Norfolk Tides, the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate, holds a team ERA of 5.40, the fourth-worst in the entirety of the International League. The team has allowed more hits than innings pitched, and surrendered the third-most walks in the league.
Among individual stats, none of the pitchers with more than five starts has an ERA under four or a WHIP under 1.330. For those that have more than one save opportunity, the average ERA is nearing six with a WHIP of around 1.880. The best pitcher on the team, No. 19 prospect Brandon Young, has a 2.82 ERA with a WHIP under 1, a stat line that no one with more than 15 innings pitched comes close to.
With those expected to become regular players in 2025, the Orioles farm system doesn’t have a lot to offer.
Chayce McDermott, the fourth-overall prospect in the system and their best overall pitching prospect, holds an 8.22 ERA over 7 2/3 innings pitched in two games at the major league level. Across Double and Triple-A, he boasts a slightly better 4.15 ERA with an elevated 1.462 WHIP. The biggest issue, however, is that his walk rate is nearly nine over nine innings pitched.
While McDermott has a low opposing batting average, walks have always been a problem for the 26-year-old. The problem over the last two years also stems from the fact that he’s been surrendering more hits than usual, leading to a higher ERA. He’s running out of time for development.
Cameron Weston, the team’s number 17 prospect, has issued fewer walks but is surrendering nearly one hit per inning pitched. He also seems to have limited stamina, only going over five innings twice in the 2025 season.
Other pitchers, including double-A pitchers Juan Nuñez and Trace Bright, have even worse stats. Bright and Nuñez both have ERAs over 7.00 and walk rates approaching nine per nine innings, with Bright throwing more walks than strikeouts. For those pegged to make an appearance in 2025, it spells disaster for an already fledgling Orioles pitching staff.
The Writing On The Wall
There are two big red flags flying in the air for the Orioles. The first is that the team’s investments are not paying off, with both Morton and Gibson falling apart early in the season. Sugano, being their big-time acquisition to replace Burnes, has been their only big success so far. It’s still far from enough to answer the question of who will step up for the rest of the season.
The second, and perhaps more consequential issue, is the lack of value their minor leaguers carry. Aside from Young, the current slate of arms in their farm is either far from refurbished or not impressing enough. The team spent so much time developing their hitters that they don’t have any backups for their rotation or bullpen.
They might be able to trade away some pitching capital for much-needed help in the rotation, but their value unfortunately lies with their younger batters. It might have to take a trade with Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers, or even Creed Willems to strike an impactful deal. Even then, it might be too late to save their season.
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