Two years later, the potential payoff of doing something different is still uncertain.
In the first four years that Mike Elias was the general manager, he was able to enjoy the benefits of drafting high in each Draft on account of the team being bad. The Orioles were not bad in 2022, meaning their 2023 Draft position was in the middle of the first round instead of the top five in the Draft.
Thinning out their opportunities further, this year the O’s did not have a round A competitive balance pick, so while the Orioles did have three of the first 63 picks, their only one in the first round came in at #17. There is just no guaranteed shot at one of the top talents then. With their second pick not coming until #53, they weren’t even guaranteed a shot at the late first/early second round talents like Elias’s choices in his first two Drafts, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg
Through the previous few days, I’ve been looking at Orioles Draft classes that are at least a few years in the rear view mirror. This 2023 group only arrived in the pro ranks two years ago. The final word has not been written about these players yet. Though, having said that, every player the Orioles drafted and signed came from the college ranks in this Draft, so it would be nice if these players were at least succeeding in Double-A by now. How is that looking in 2025?
Enrique Bradfield
Bradfield, drafted out of Vanderbilt, cut against the usual type for high Elias draft picks for one reason: He had no power potential to speak of. There was plenty to like about him, with a combination of speed and defensive ability in center field expected to give him a high floor, and a “walked more than he struck out” profile across his college career giving a good reason to believe in his on-base skills.
The question about Bradfield is whether he will be able to hit higher-level pitching enough when those pitchers don’t need to fear him doing damage. He’s hit just one homer in 137 plate appearances for Chesapeake; he missed nearly a month due to a hamstring injury. There’s still a lot to like, such as his .393 OBP and the fact that he’s still doing the “more walks than strikeouts” over a month-plus Double-A sample – 23 walks to 21 strikeouts. He’s stolen 14 bases in 35 games there.
For the most part, this is not a profile that has put Bradfield on any top 100 lists up to this point. One exception is at Baseball Prospectus, where he checked in at #46 before the season began. BP on Bradfield:
Bradfield is one of the fastest players in organized baseball at any level, and he translates his elite foot speed into excellent center field defense. It’s the rare game-breaking speed and glove combo that would merit a Top 101 ranking even if he couldn’t hit a lick. And his bat isn’t that bad. Bradfield combines a solid approach with good contact rates … Any medium-hit ground ball here is a potential hit, and any slow roller is going in the infielder’s pocket.
From pretty much the day he was drafted, you could kind of assume that Bradfield was going to be working towards being the center field replacement after Cedric Mullins becomes a free agent following this season.
The hamstring injury that cost him a month earlier this year throws that timeline a bit, and he’s going to have to prove that he can still do his thing successfully against Triple-A pitching before the Orioles organization is likely to push him aggressively towards MLB. I think he’ll get chances with Norfolk before season’s end. Bradfield will be showcased at the All-Star Futures Game this coming weekend.
This could turn out to be a pick where the Orioles avoiding the high school talent ranks doesn’t look too good when we look back on everything. The current MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects list has eight players who were drafted in the 20-37 range of this draft class who were coming out of high school. But if Bradfield is at least a decent player on some good Orioles teams starting next year, there probably won’t be many regrets even if some of these other prospects end up having better MLB careers.
Guys who got traded for Zach Eflin
Just about a year ago, the Orioles traded three players from this Draft class to the Rays for Zach Eflin. That deal included 2023 second round pick Mac Horvath, competitive balance round B pick Jackson Baumeister, and tenth round pick Matthew Etzel. One interesting aspect of this trade to me is that Baumeister is the highest the O’s have drafted and signed a pitcher and they just… traded him away a year later.
At the time of the trade, Horvath was batting .232/.328/.417 for High-A Aberdeen. Baumeister, over 18 games started for Aberdeen, was sporting a 3.06 ERA with 91 strikeouts in 70.2 innings, though that came with a downside of a 5.5 BB/9. Etzel was a surprise performer, earning a promotion to Double-A after he OPSed .857 for the IronBirds. When the trade happened, Etzel was hitting .261/.338/.391 in 32 games with Bowie and he’d stolen 41 bases in 83 games for the season.
In acquiring Eflin, the Orioles did something that’s been rare under Elias: They took on money for the next season (this year) as well. Eflin made $11 million last year and is getting $18 million in 2025 from a three-year, $40 million deal he signed with Tampa before the 2023 season. Eflin was at roughly a league-average ERA (4.09) when the O’s acquired him, with peripheral stats suggesting some bad luck. Particularly interesting about him was his miniscule walk rate, a BB/9 under 2 across a nine-year career up to that point.
After being acquired by the Orioles, Eflin went on a heater for the rest of the season, dropping a 2.60 ERA over nine starts, success that wasn’t halted even with a brief injured list stint. He was worth 1.8 bWAR in those nine games. Since the O’s offense stunk in their short postseason appearance, the O’s got just one postseason start out of Eflin, where he allowed a run in four innings.
It ain’t happening this year. Eflin has been hurt and bad. His 5.95 ERA in 12 starts is brutal, as is the fact that he’s allowing home runs like they’re going out of style. If you had thought back in April that at least the Orioles would be able to get some value out of trading Eflin, it’s not looking likely.
From the standpoint of Orioles fan regret, at least none of the guys they traded are breaking out in 2025. Horvath is repeating High-A, where he’s got a .788 OPS. Baumeister bumped up to Double-A, with a 6.86 ERA in ten starts; his strikeout rate was cut by about a third and he’s on the IL right now. Etzel, also at Double-A, is hitting .230/.360/.347. This trade was certainly worth a shot. It would be nice if it paid off in 2025 as well as in 2024.
I worried about this Baumeister’s performance in the initial aftermath of the trade, because Baumeister’s walk rate dropped substantially once he joined the Rays organization. The same happened to Moisés Chace, traded to the Phillies for Gregory Soto. In neither case did that carry over to Double-A in 2025.
Elias finally using high Draft picks on pitchers
In addition to Baumeister, the Orioles used their third and fourth round picks on pitchers, earlier rounds than they had signed pitchers in any of Elias’s previous Drafts at the helm. Beyond the fifth round, the O’s also selected pitchers in bulk, only signing three position players from rounds 6-20.
Third-rounder Kiefer Lord came with the neat narrative of basically teaching himself to throw hard by watching YouTube videos during pandemic isolation. He threw two professional innings before needing Tommy John surgery.
Fourth-rounder Levi Wells is at Double-A Chesapeake, where he’s put up a 2.86 ERA and 1.192 WHIP through 13 games. The 7.7 K/9 is low, and he’s averaging fewer than four innings per game pitched so far, but he’s got interesting things going for him, including just two homers allowed and a solid walk rate allowed (2.5 BB/9).
Eighth-rounder Braxton Bragg has a long way to go to be the top search engine result for his own name. He’s been opening eyes with his performance this year, earning a quick promotion to Chesapeake, where he went on to strike out 59 batters in 42.2 innings. He’s now on the IL for a second time this year due to a forearm issue. I fear we’re done hearing about him until 2027.
Ninth-rounder Zach Fruit was sorta interesting with a 3.03 ERA for Aberdeen a year ago (with a 4.6 BB/9 as a concern). He got hurt after three starts at Double-A this season. On a rehab assignment to Aberdeen now.
Eleventh-rounder Nestor German had a 1.59 ERA and 0.937 WHIP between Delmarva and Aberdeen last year, setting him up as a guy to at least sorta keep an eye on this year. That carried over as he struck out 37 guys in 25 innings before getting bumped up to Chesapeake. In nine games there, the strikeout rate is way down and the ERA is up (4.60). You can hope he’ll adjust if you want. Currently a top 10 prospect in the system at MLB Pipeline.
Twelfth-rounder Blake Money has a brother named Cash (really) and also had an excellent strikeout rate for Aberdeen (11 K/9) before getting promoted to Double-A this season. 7.02 ERA in four games so far there.
Fourteenth-rounder Michael Forret received a modest overslot bonus as a day 3 pick ($450,000) from a Florida junior college. Pipeline and Baseball America both have him in the top 7 of Orioles prospects. He’s 21 and pitching for Aberdeen this year, where he has a 1.59 ERA in 11 games, with 52 strikeouts in 39.2 innings. He missed all of May with a back injury.
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Earlier this week, in looking at the 2020, 2021, and 2022 Orioles Draft classes, I found that each of those classes has one established big leaguer and maybe one other person worth considering as a hopeful.
The 2023 class has no big leaguers yet, which is fine, although if that’s still true a year from now, that will be less fine. Three of its draftees were traded for a big leaguer, a move that paid dividends last year but is not paying off in its second year. Then there are a bunch of pitchers who have attracted some degree of positive attention from people in both the mainstream prospect writing community and the Orioles fan enthusiast community.
Being the pessimist that I am, I expect nothing from these pitchers. I do hope that in another year’s time, at least a couple of them are having something resembling success at Triple-A. As I have written to a broken record degree, no starting pitcher drafted by Elias has managed to clear this bar yet.