With another step forward this year, the Orioles shortstop is playing his way into MVP talk
Wednesday afternoon’s rubber match against the Los Angeles Angels made one thing clear, in case it needed to be made clear: Gunnar Henderson is one of the best players in the game. Not only did the 22-year-old lefty reach base five times and hit a home run; he also made a spectacular defensive play at the toughest position on the diamond.
It’s this insane combination of power, speed and defense that makes Gunnar such a freak, and that makes his appearance on an early MVP frontrunner list feel not-so-ridiculous, even before a month has elapsed in the season.
Gunnar is one of the offensive leaders on one of the best-hitting teams right now. His seven homers pace the Orioles, his .596 slugging ranks second, and he has a 1.068 OPS over the last fourteen days.
But beyond Orioles leaderboards, Henderson ranks near the top of the American League in several splashy categories. BaseballReference places him second in Offensive WAR behind only José Altuve; FanGraphs ranks him fourth. His power stands out in particular. He’s second among all AL hitters in slugging, third in isolated power, and third in total offense (per FanGraphs). Only Altuve and Bobby Witt Jr. have surpassed Gunnar’s 56 total bases. And only Mike Trout has more home runs.
Delving into Henderson’s peripherals underscores the point: practically no one else is hitting the ball as hard. His BaseballSavant page is a sea of red (a good thing, indicating he’s coming in at the Top 10% of the league). His average exit velocity of 96.3 mph on batted balls is highest in MLB, ahead of stars like Juan Soto, Witt Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. His hard-hit percentage (60%) ranks in the 97th percentile. He also ranks in the top ten percent of hitters in nearly all of the “expected” categories—batting average, slugging, weighted on-base average, and a host of others—itself an indicator of hard contact.
“I feel good. I’ve been making some adjustments. I kind of felt like I was getting around to where I wanted to be, but still not exactly there,” Henderson said on Wednesday about his performance at the plate. One adjustment he’s made from last year: hitting offspeed and breaking pitches, on which his average is sixty-to-one-hundred points higher. He’s also driving the ball to the middle of the field more than he ever used to (47.1% of batted balls versus 38.1% the year before).
Where there’s room for improvement—I guess—is on defense. It’s kind of strange to see, given that night in, night out, he appears to pass the eye test with flying colors. But BRef grades him negatively as a defender (-0.1 dWAR) and Fangraphs echoes this assessment (-0.1 UZR). Neither site has complaints about Henderson’s range or his arm at short, but it’s true that he’s made three errors, a relatively high number in a short amount of time. My guess: there’s some noise here, and I’d expect him to emerge in the black on defensive indicators soon.
It’s kind of weird to point all of this out. After all, it was just last November that Henderson was crowned Rookie of the Year after hitting 28 home runs and knocking in 82 RBIs. From there to the MVP shortlist in April feels like a precipitous rise. I confess that it’s also weird and unfamiliar, as an Orioles fan, to have a player in the national spotlight, much less for hardware, much less at this early stage of the season.
But we can’t deny the numbers, or the sheer excitement he brings to the game. Right now, Gunnar is on pace for 49 home runs and 28 stolen bases. As to steals, with his combo of foot speed (91st percentile) and baserunning acuity (he’s considered one of the Top 5 baserunners in the league), he could up the pace considerably.
That’s to say, given his proven ability, cracking the 40-40 club is an attainable goal for Gunnar Henderson. For reference, the last 40-40 player was Ronald Acuña Jr. in 2023; before that, Alfonso Soriano in 2006. It’s not so much that I’m predicting that Henderson will hit this mark so much as to put in perspective what a rare and unusual talent he is. This year Orioles baseball feels like an embarrassment of riches, up and down the lineup. We’ll have to get used to the feeling somehow.