The Orioles knew Tyler O’Neill came with significant injury risk when they signed the outfielder to a 3-year, $49.5 million deal. They didn’t know that he would post a 66 OPS+ when healthy.
Injuries played a significant factor in Baltimore’s disappointing first half. The Orioles limped into the All-Star break with Brandon Young in their starting rotation and a pair of catcher’s that fans could actually forget exist during the break.
Free agent signing Tyler O’Neill spent plenty of time on the injured list in the first half. The former Cardinal hit the IL before the end of April with neck inflammation, and he returned to the injured list less than a month later with left shoulder impingement.
O’Neill arrived in Baltimore with significant injury concerns, but he passed a physical. Mike Elias signed O’Neill to a three year, $49.5 million dollar contract. The deal included a player option after one year. With the benefit of hindsight, Elias likely wishes he could have secured a mutual option at the end of 2025.
The outfielder arrived in Baltimore fresh off of his best season (2.6 bWAR) since 2021. He absolutely torched lefties while playing for an AL East foe, the Red Sox, and the O’s needed a strong right-handed bat for the middle of the order.
O’Neill was considered a desirable target entering last offseason. The signing unofficially closed the curtain on a new contract for Anthony Santander, but few could blame O’Neill for that. Santander, for what it’s worth, has hit .179 with a 60 OPS+ through 50 games with the Blue Jays.
The Orioles likely did not expect O’Neill to replicate his six WAR season with Gold Glove defense from 2021. They knew he could get hurt at some point, but they expected him to produce when healthy. The Birds anticipated quality at bats against southpaws, but O’Neill still profiled as a guy that could play every day (when his body allowed).
O’Neill’s somewhat random injuries this season were a bummer, but it was his performance when healthy that truly qualified as a disappointment. The righty slashed .176/.271/.314 with a 64 wRC+ over 118 plate appearances. Those numbers fall well short of his ZiPS projected .238/.323/.449 and 115 wRC+.
Baltimore knew it would have to battle injuries over the course of a three-year deal, but could it have have projected those numbers? Well, maybe.
FanGraphs pointed out, and our Mark Brown echoed, that O’Neill lived in peaks and valleys. He struck out in 36 of his 82 plate appearances last May while posting a .151/.244/.301 line. There were going to be injuries and there were going to be slumps. There were supposed to be hot streaks too… Could those be coming in the second half?
If healthy, O’Neill should find some form of a groove. O’Neill slashed .306/.368/.588 with six homers last July. The O’s will have a few more at bats available with Ryan O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins set to be dealt, and O’Neill could take advantage down the stretch.
Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. The Orioles have flipped the switch from a team attempting to win this season to a club focused on the future. The best case scenario, aside from an unthinkable winning streak, involves players like Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo emerging as quality big league hitters in the second half. Baltimore obviously wants O’Neill to bounce back, but those guys need AB’s from the outfield and designated hitter slot.
At this point in owner David Rubenstein’s tenure, $50 million is still a significant number. It would be financially irresponsible for O’Neill to opt out of his contract, and the O’s would need to motivate a team to take on the 30-year-old in a salary-dumping trade.
The Orioles could attempt to package O’Neill alongside one of their more attractive players at the end of the month, but it would take a large market team willing to eat some salary and risk. That type of deal would also require Elias to cut bait and sell at a low value.
O’Neill’s three-year deal is far from some of the albatross contracts across the majors. Toronto cannot be thrilled with Santander’s five-year, $92.5 million contract, and the Yankees still owe DJ LeMahieu $22 million after cutting the three-time All Star last week.
Baltimore’s pitching woes and catcher injuries have generally shielded O’Neill from the spotlight. The righty could right the ship in the second half, but the Orioles have several young players coming for his at bats in the near future.