Zach Eflin and the O’s take on former No.1 pick Casey Mize as they try to even the series against baseball’s best team.
Where to watch: MASN 2
Probable pitchers: RHP Zach Eflin (5-2, 4.47 ERA, 31 Ks) vs. RHP Casey Mize (6-1, 2.91 ERA, 48 Ks)
Wednesday’s loss to the Tigers in the series opener had all the hallmarks of this Orioles team’s season-long struggles. The starting pitching wasn’t good enough; Cade Povich didn’t make it out of the 5th inning and finished with a final line of 4.2 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB and 6 Ks. The long ball was once again an issue, as the Tigers broke the game open on a Spencer Torkelson two-run homer in the 5th. The offense was also underwhelming, with Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson combining to go 4-for-8, while the rest of the team went 2-for-24.
Baltimore will hope Zach Eflin can give them a better start than Povich, though that hasn’t been guaranteed with Eflin lately. Since coming off the IL on May 11th, the O’s Opening Day starter has a 5.40 ERA in five starts. The veteran right-hander is coming off back-to-back quality starts against the White Sox and Mariners, during which we’ve seen him tinker with his pitch mix.
Through most of his time with the Orioles, Eflin has been a cutter-sinker-curveball pitcher— going more cutter-heavy against lefties and sinker-heavy against righties. The last two times out, we’ve seen him turn increasingly to his changeup—throwing 24 changeups against the White Sox and 19 against the Mariners. Expect to see a heavy dose of changeups tonight as Eflin tries to neutralize top Tigers lefties like Riley Green, Kerry Carpenter and Zach McKinstry.
Opposing Eflin is the No.1 pick from the 2018 draft, right-hander Casey Mize. The 28-year-old is finally starting to make good on the potential he showed as an Auburn Tiger. Mize is off to the best start of his career, posting a 2.91 ERA and .244 average against over his first 10 starts. Mize is back to throwing his splitter as his go-to secondary pitch, throwing the splitter a career-high 24.6% of the time.
His splitter hasn’t been particularly good (it ranks 22nd in Run Value among 25 pitchers), but it’s helped him get the best results he’s ever produced with his breaking balls. His slider is back to being a plus offering, holding hitters to a .174 average. Mize also is getting good results on his relatively new slurve, generating a 30% whiff rate on his other breaking ball.
Mize hasn’t pitched at Camden Yards since 2021, when he allowed a pair of home runs to Anthony Santander and a solo shot to DJ Stewart in a game the Tigers won 9-4. Ryan O’Hearn is the only Orioles hitter with a long history against Mize, a matchup that’s usually gone in ROH’s favor. The Orioles’ DH is 5-for-11 with two HRs and a 1.674 OPS in his career against the Tigers’ right-hander.
Orioles Lineup
- Jackson Holliday (L) 2B
- Adley Rutschman (S) C
- Gunnar Henderson (L) SS
- Ryan O’Hearn (L) 1B
- Jordan Westburg (R) DH
- Colton Cowser (L) LF
- Ramón Laureano (R) RF
- Cedric Mullins (L) CF
- Ramón Urías (R) 3B
Tigers Lineup
- Parker Meadows (L) CF
- Gleyber Torres (R) 2B
- Kerry Carpenter (L) DH
- Riley Greene (L) LF
- Spencer Torkelson (R) 1B
- Wenceel Pérez (S) RF
- Colt Keith (L) 3B
- Jake Rogers (R) C
- Zach McKinstry (L) SS