Now that the 2025 season is truly sunk, let’s get a look at those prospects, right? Right!?
It’s been happening in the background for a while now, but ever since the Orioles went all-in on selling at the deadline the murmurs have risen to a roar. The people want Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers in Baltimore now.
Orioles GM Mike Elias addressed the calls for their promotion late last week. He explained that the duo are “having terrific seasons” and that “getting them a taste [of MLB play] in 2025 here would be a good thing for all parties.” But he also said that “there’s some things we’re still looking for and hoping they’ll do.”
So, it’s happening, but not right now.
You can understand why folks want to see Basallo and/or Beavers up in the big leagues. The Orioles have nothing tangible to play for the rest of 2025, and it sure feels like the duo would be an upgrade over a few of the players that currently occupy a spot on the active roster. But because of some nebulous “things” that Elias wants to see, along with the organizational advantages of waiting a few more weeks, we continue to wait.
Basallo is widely considered the Orioles top prospect, and one of the elite hitting prospects in all of baseball. He has spent all of 2025 at Triple-A Norfolk, where he has a .268/.382/.583 batting line with 20 home runs despite a few injuries throughout the year.
To be fair to Elias, as good as Basallo’s bat may be, his defense behind the plate draws constant criticism. Scouts love his arm and think he does a fine job controlling the run game. They are less impressed by his actual receiving and blocking.
This is where it’s helpful to remember that he is only (about to turn) 21 years old, and is playing at Triple-A, where he is six years younger than the average player. On top of that, an elbow injury to start 2025 kept him from getting reps back there until mid-May, so he has not had as many opportunities to develop.
Beavers’ numbers at the plate are similarly impressive. Like Basallo, he has been at Triple-A all year long and has a .302/.418/.498 line with 14 home runs. He is also 22-for-26 on stolen base attempts and has walked (60) almost as much as he has struck out (64).
Where Beavers needs to improve prior to a big league call up is less obvious than Basallo. Across the board, his numbers are better this season than they were in 2024. He’s walking more, and striking out less. He has largely stayed healthy. And he has played all three outfield positions, although most of his time has been spent in right field. Meanwhile, the Orioles are giving outfield innings to Jordyn Adams and Jeremiah Jackson, who has largely been an infielder in his professional career.
So, why the wait?
For Basallo, it seems rather straightforward. The Orioles don’t believe in his glove. At least, not enough to bring him up as one of only two catchers on the roster. What would likely be a more comfortable situation would be to have Basallo join Adley Rutschman and Alex Jackson in Baltimore. That way they can protect Basallo a bit, give him a taste of the catching role, rotate him into the DH or first base spots as well. That gets much easier to do on September 1, when rosters expand to 28.
This is a case where it does not seem like the Orioles are playing games with a player’s service time. Basallo becomes so much more valuable if he can be even a slightly below average defensive catcher. If he instead is “just” a slugging first baseman, that’s fine. But it does not transform the overall offense in the same way.
Once again, the situation with Beavers is a bit murkier. He does not have the same concerns about a specific part of his game, and the team could use a player with his exact skill set. So what gives?
Well, prior to the trade deadline, the Orioles did not technically “need” Beavers. The outfield was somewhat full with Colton Cowser, Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins, Ramón Laureano, and the occasional right field cameo for Ryan O’Hearn. So they could reasonably claim that Beavers was continuing to develop and that they did not have an opening in Baltimore.
All the while, Beavers was playing better and better. He had a 1.026 OPS in June, followed that up with a 1.016 OPS in July, and is off to a hot start of August (1.922 OPS). That sort of performance should be getting him into the discussion for “Top 100” consideration across the scouting industry. That is an additional incentive for the Orioles to wait on a promotion.
The Prospect Promotion Incentive was implemented to reduce service time manipulation for the sport’s top young players, particularly at the start of a season. Teams that promote their top prospects at or near Opening Day are now eligible for compensation picks if the player then finishes highly in one of several end-of-season awards. When Gunnar Henderson won Rookie of the Year in 2023, the Orioles were awarded the 32nd overall pick in the 2024 draft as part of the PPI program.
In order for a player to be eligible for the PPI they must “appear on at least two of the three Top 100 Prospect rankings released by MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and ESPN. Those players must be rookie-eligible and have fewer than 60 days of prior MLB service.”
That likely explains why Beavers has stayed down to this point. But now, there are fewer than 60 days left in the MLB season. So the Orioles should be able to promote him at any point and keep him eligible for the PPI should he sneak onto two of those Top 100 lists this offseason.
Eligibility for those lists could be the only other factor under consideration. The three relevant outlets (MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and ESPN) all calculate eligibility differently. For BA, for example, a prospect graduates from their list once they have 130 MLB at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 30 pitching appearances. A hitter that plays everyday would accumulate 130 at-bats in 25-35 games. So if Beavers was promoted today, and then played as much as people want him to he might never get onto those lists in the first place. The same is true for Basallo.
In short, the Orioles do have real, legitimate reasons for keeping the pair of Beavers and Basallo in Norfolk. You could also argue that those reasons are lame, and they should always strive to put the best team on the field. You won’t hear an argument out of me on that either.