Zach Eflin made his three-year, $41MM contract look like an absolute bargain in 2023 and ’24. The right-hander produced a 3.54 ERA and 3.62 SIERA over 59 starts in the two most productive seasons of his career. Unfortunately, the final year of that deal has been nothing short of disastrous. He has taken three trips to the injured list, the first with a lat strain and the latter two with back discomfort. On Tuesday, Orioles manager Tony Mansolino announced that Eflin would undergo a lumbar microdiscectomy procedure, ending his season. In and around his three IL stints, the righty stumbled to a 5.93 ERA. His 16.2% strikeout rate was his worst since 2017, while his 40.2% groundball rate was his lowest since his rookie season the year before. Meanwhile, he gave up home runs at the highest rate of his career.
If Eflin had returned to free agency last winter, he could have commanded something like the three-year, $75MM deals that Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea signed. Considering his age (he’s still only 31), perhaps he could have earned even more. Now, he will most likely have to settle for a single-year pillow contract – one that might not even reach eight figures – as he looks to rebuild his value.
Exactly what kind of contract he ultimately signs will depend on his timeline to recover from the lumbar microdiscectomy procedure, which is scheduled for Monday (per Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner). Eflin told reporters (including Allentuck) that he’s hopeful he can have a relatively normal offseason after 12 weeks; that timeline would have him resuming his regular offseason activities right around the GM Meetings. However, he acknowledged that recovery from this particular procedure can take anywhere from four to eight months. An eight-month recovery would put his return sometime in mid-April.
Regardless of when exactly he’s back to full strength, whichever team signs Eflin will be taking a risk on an injury-prone starter. The payoff could be substantial; at his best, Eflin is the kind of pitcher who can start game two of a playoff series, like he did for the Rays in 2023 and the Orioles in 2024. On the other hand, the downside is just as plain to see: He could have another season like this one.
Could the Orioles be the team that takes that risk? It feels unlikely. They could certainly use the help in their starting rotation, but they already have three injured starters they’re hoping will contribute significantly in 2026: Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, and Tyler Wells, as well as swingman Albert Suárez. If they’re going to add a starter, it would make sense for GM Mike Elias to make a safer choice. That said, if the Orioles do reach out, it seems like Eflin would be interested in a reunion.
“Absolutely,” Eflin replied when asked if he could see himself back in Baltimore for 2026 (per Allentuck). It’s not uncommon for a pending free agent to express loose, noncommittal interest in re-signing with his current team. Yet, Eflin’s language was direct, and the reporters he spoke to conveyed the impression that he genuinely hopes to return. It would be hard to blame him if he were ready to move on after such a disappointing season for both himself and his team, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Says Eflin, “I told pretty much everyone that we’ve had a conversation about that, I told them I love this place and I’d love to be here.”