With the completion of the Play-In Tournament, we now know the draft lottery odds for each team sitting home for the playoffs. The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on May 12. There is a near-consensus top overall prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft in Cooper Flagg. In a little less than a month, the team that will have the opportunity to take him will be found out.
2025 NBA Draft Lottery Odds After Play-In Tournament
The Three Favorites
Beginning with the 2020 NBA Draft, the NBA has changed the odds as to who can get the first overall pick. Instead of the team with the worst record having the best chance, now the teams with the three-worst records have an equal opportunity to have their ping pong ball selected.
In the 2024-25 season, the Utah Jazz (17-65), Washington Wizards (18-64), and Charlotte Hornets (19-63) were at the bottom of the standings. They will each have a 14% chance of winning the lottery, thus earning the first selection of the 2025 NBA Draft. The Jazz can pick no lower than fifth, Wizards sixth, and Hornets seventh.
The Other 11 Teams
Those three teams have a combined 42% chance of winning the lottery. That means there is a better chance (58%) of one of the 11 other teams taking home the first overall pick come May 12. Their odds are as follows:
New Orleans Pelicans – 12.5%
Philadelphia 76ers – 10.5%
Brooklyn Nets – 9.0%
Toronto Raptors – 7.5%
San Antonio Spurs – 6.0%
Phoenix Suns (Houston Rockets) – 3.8%
Portland Trail Blazers – 3.7%
Dallas Mavericks – 1.8%
Chicago Bulls – 1.7%
Sacramento Kings – 0.8%
Atlanta Hawks – 0.7%
Now, there are some things to note. There will be a random drawing to decide some tiebreakers. So teams listed as 0.1% higher than the team below it (Suns, Mavericks, Kings) could lose the tiebreaker and have their place flip-flopped if neither of those teams earn a top-four pick.
While the Suns are in the lottery due to their disappointing season, they will not have their pick. It goes to the Rockets. The Hawks first round pick goes to the Spurs, courtesy of the Dejounte Murray trade in 2022. The Kings pick will go to the Hawks if it lands outside the top 12.
Also, 76ers fans will have their eyes glued on the screen for the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery. It’s not just because they hope to get the first pick. Their first round pick is top-six protected, or it goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder. According to Tankathon, there is a 36% chance that Philadelphia’s pick comes outside 1-6.
History Of Current Draft Lottery Rules
This will be the sixth draft lottery that has the current odds in place. Each of the first four saw one of the three squads with a 14% chance get the top pick.
2020 – Minnesota Timberwolves (Anthony Edwards)
2021 – Detroit Pistons (Cade Cunningham)
2022 – Orlando Magic (Paolo Banchero)
2023 – San Antonio Spurs (Victor Wembanyama)
Last year was the first time with the current rules where a team with under a 14% chance won. It was a long-shot too, as the winner had just a 3.0% chance of doing so.
2024 – Atlanta Hawks (Zaccharie Risacher)
While Flagg is almost certain to go first overall, there are other players who will be seen as excellent consolation prizes. They include Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, V.J. Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Kon Knueppel, and Khaman Maluach.
Photo credit: © Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
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