Rutgers freshman forward Ace Bailey, projected to be a top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, is going through what many a player has at this stage of their basketball journey.
Last year, it was Alex Sarr. The draft prior, it was Brandon Miller. Before that, it was Paolo Banchero. Without going all the way down the rabbit hole, suffice it to say that Bailey’s draft stock is in a bear market. Really, it’s more like a bear trap, considering that he may be stuck in this position.
2025 NBA Draft: The Curious Case Of Ace Bailey
Bailey’s recent decision to build walls rather than bridges wasn’t met well.
How dare he attempt to sway his future? Who does he think he is, wanting to be a star? In a vacuum, those rigid and unspoken rules sound ridiculous for any prospect. For one such as Bailey, who has multiple traits that speak to his gold-leaf ceiling.
Yet, the overreactions —the overreaching —reflect the deeper issue, which is that he’s a complex player to evaluate.
Well, not really.
Went on the Dunc’d On podcast to talk about why Ace Bailey is my No. 3 prospect in the draft, why I’m so bullish on his upside, what I’ve seen from him over the years, and why he’s so polarizing with some NBA executives. pic.twitter.com/KPFaps1ARu
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) June 17, 2025
His strengths —jump shooting, finishing, rebounding, perimeter defense, and help defense —are simple. His primary problem area, that being facilitating, is as well. The difference between his athletic ability and that of Duke freshman phenom Cooper Flagg is minimal, even favoring Bailey in certain regards.
Compare & Contrast
There’s far more to like about Bailey than not. That should actually be more clear when comparing him to his competition at the top of the draft.
- Bailey has less feel and passing skill than Flagg. Yet, he’s still the superior on-ball scorer while being on-par as a defender and pick-and-roll roll man.
- Rutgers freshman guard Dylan Harper was the more advanced shot-creator, whether for himself and others. Nonetheless, Bailey made his presence felt at both ends more consistently.
- Baylor freshman guard VJ Edgecombe is a notch above him as a facilitator but not on his level as a natural scorer. Edgecombe is the better pickpocket but Bailey has more positional versatility at the defensive end.
- Texas freshman wing Tre Johnson is a better shooter but his shot-selection isn’t, let alone his efficiency. He should be able to hold his own, but he doesn’t look an upper-level defender.
The fact of the matter is that Bailey’s being railroaded. He’s an imperfect prospect. His brash confidence isn’t for everyone. At the same time, he’s become underrated by fans, media and talent evaluators who are more interested in discussing what he’s not than what he is.
Top-3?
Will Bailey fall out of the top-3?
The Dallas Mavericks appear dead set on drafting Flagg, who should provide an immediate tangible and sentimental boost, so they’ve been an unlikely landing spot for awhile. Similarly, the San Antonio Spurs are widely anticipated to be Harper’s next home. Yet, the Spurs should be more focused on Bailey than Harper looking at their roster.
There’s evidence Harper can excel in a hybrid role. All the same, sharing ball-handling duties with De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and Victor Wembanyama might impede his development, if not just make for a frustrating situation. Furthermore, the silent tug-of-war that led to the Sacramento Kings splitting up Fox and Tyrese Haliburton should lead to qualms about drafting Harper.
Alternately, Bailey would complement Harrison Barnes and Julian Champagnie, both of whom are 3-point specialists. Yet, because of his own shooting ability, he’s also a counterbalance to Jeremy Sochan. Though Gregg Popovich won’t be roaming the sidelines anymore, his experience molding Kawhi Leonard into a perennial All-Star is intriguing.
People will question whether Bailey’s personality would be a fit for the Spurs culture. Yet, when thinking about Wembanyama’s lofty ambitions or Fox’s fiery demeanor, they don’t seem to mind headstrong players. They want team players and those who watched Bailey at Rutgers could easily see he’s that.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers are licking their wounds and their chops, but don’t have one need that supersedes the rest. At this point, they’re as likely to draft Bailey as Edgecombe. Bailey, who has been compared to Sixers swingman Paul George, could be the veteran’s understudy or successor. Edgecombe would provide the much needed defensive edge that they don’t typically get from Tyrese Maxey at the point of attack.
Sliding Past Third
If Bailey does slide past third, he probably won’t be on the board long.
He’s a definitive upgrade from Charlotte Hornets forward Tidjane Salaun, with the Eastern Conference squad holding the No. 4 pick. In search of high-end talent, the Utah Jazz could draft him with the fifth overall pick simply by viewing him as the best player available. The Washington Wizards, who have the No. 6 pick, would be wise to add him to their young core. The New Orleans Pelicans, who pick seventh overall, are actually exploring trade-up scenarios to draft him, per Yahoo Sports analyst Kevin O’Connor.
© Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
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