The Washington Wizards haven’t been anything short of lackluster in recent years.
Not only did they finish at the bottom of the Eastern Conference this past season with an 18-64 record but they have a combined 103-225 record since 2021-22, when they made their last playoff appearance. However, they’re entering a new era in D.C., with a strong rebuilding roster. From that angle, the Wizards future is certainly bright, but not everybody agrees with that perspective.
ESPN Has A Rocky Forecast For The Washington Wizards’ Future
While some have high hopes for the Wizards young core, ESPN insiders have a much more pessimistic outlook. In their annual forecast of all 30 NBA team’s three-year outlook (Future Power Rankings), Washington was just 26th overall. It’s worth noting that the Wizards did jump up two spots from the previous rankings, but does that really ease the nerves?
Let’s dive into ESPN’s reasons for placing the District’s squad so low.
The Negatives
The Roster
In the Future Power Rankings subcategories, the Wizards roster was slotted at 29th. ESPN’s Bobby Marks is quick to point out why the roster is ranked so low (not that many were expecting it to be higher):
“The Wizards are in the bottom five, however, largely because of a roster that features a league-high 10 players on first-round rookie contracts, including Bilal Coulibaly and Alex Sarr. If the former first-round picks take a big step in development, we could see the Wizards take a jump on this list.”
To his point, most of Washington’s players are young and unproven. Most of the core players are entering either their rookie or sophomore year. Outside of veterans Khris Middleton and CJ McCollum, none of them have been a major contributor on a playoff team.
Simply put, the Wizards have a ways to go individually and collectively. Of course, those around the association and those who support it don’t want to see them ranked so low. Nonetheless, it’s important to manage those expectations by accepting the reality of the situation.
The Market
The D.C. market being ranked 19th should come as no surprise either. It’s counterintuitive as the District of Columbia is the nation’s capital. However, it doesn’t have the massive population and media presence of cities like Los Angeles, Boston, and New York City. With that in mind, almost every major U.S city houses at least one NBA franchise.
The Management
Wizards management being ranked 23rd does raise red flags.
Yes, it’s true the front office has struggled building a cohesive roster and drafted some players who haven’t quite panned out. However, in recent years, they’ve flipped the script. They’ve added quality pieces –like Sarr, 2024 No. 14 pick Bub Carrington, and 2024 No. 24 pick Kyshawn George –through the NBA Draft. This offseason, they drafted a player who could become the face of the franchise in 2025 No. 6 pick Tre Johnson.
In fact, the roster has been completely overhauled this offseason alone, thanks to several calculated trades that have brought in expiring contracts and prepossessing young talent.
Furthermore Wizard general manager Will Dawkins may be new in town, but his resume speaks volumes. He spent 15 seasons with the Oklahoma City Thunder and was a part of the office that helped build the team that made the NBA Finals in 2012. Frankly, the management could and should be rated higher based solely on Dawkins’s resume.
The Positives
With all the negatives out of the way, D.C. did have a couple of positives to build off of. Literally. The Wizards rank second in league money and sixth in draft capital.
Again, Marks dives into why:
“If we were basing the FPR on draft assets and cap flexibility, Washington would rank near the top. The Wizards could have up to $80 million in cap space next summer, and over the next seven years, the franchise boasts 10 firsts and 13 seconds.”
As with any team, having substantial cap space can be huge for Washington.
Going into the 2026 offseason, they’d have plenty of capital to bring in a true No. 1 option. If they can convince a star to sign, Johnson and Sarr shouldn’t and won’t be relied on to carry the load on offense. Additionally, they would be able to offer a plethora of trade packages without worrying too much about their financial situation. In terms of their own free agents, they may not wish to re-sign the veterans, but they could offer another one-year deal to them.
With that being said, McCollum still provides plenty of value at the offensive end. Middleton, an injury-prone but battle-tested champion, could easily be a part of a sign-and-trade.
So far as their draft capital, having ten first-round picks (with two in 2026) should be a great sign of what’s to come. The 2026 draft class is similar to the 2025 NBA Draft class in that there is a multitude of highly-touted prospects. Between players like BYU’s AJ Dybantsa and Duke’ Boozer twins, this class could be the best this decade. As a result, the Wizards should be able to get two quality talents to usher in the final phase of the rebuild.
The Last Word On The Wizards FPR
Obviously, no one was expecting the Wizards’ Future Power Rankings (FPR) to be extremely high. Hopefully, their forecast will look much brighter in 2028. In fact, by the turn of the decade, they could be a real powerhouse.
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