A quarter point check-up
The 2024-25 Washington Wizards aren’t bad. They aspire to be bad. What are they? The word “awful” comes to mind, as do some synonyms — terrible, dreadful, ghastly, horrendous…you get the idea.
Another word that comes to mind: historic.
In this context, “historic” isn’t a compliment. It’s a statement of fact. This is the NBA’s 79th season. During the preceding 78, only 20 teams had a scoring margin of -10.0 or worse. At the bottom of the heap for a full season is the 1992-93 Dallas Mavericks at -15.2. That Dallas team had an 11-71 record, by the way.
Washington’s scoring margin this season: -16.2. Worst ever by a point per game. In NBA history, only three teams have been worse than -12.0 — the 11-71 Mavericks, the 7-59 Charlotte Bobcats, and the 9-73 Philadelphia 76ers.
Adjust for strength of schedule, and things don’t look quite as bad for the Wizards. They’re only third worst in history. Here’s the all-time bottom five in adjusted scoring margin (which is a better measure than raw scoring margin):
- 1992-93 Dallas Mavericks, 11-71: -14.7
- 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats, 7-59: -13.9
- 1970-71 Cleveland Cavaliers, 15-67: -12.0
- 1997-98 Denver Nuggets, 11-71: -11.7
- 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers, 9-73: -11.5
Washington’s adjusted scoring margin so far this season: -13.6.
Fun fact: when the 1992-93 Dallas record hit 2-27, the Mavericks fired head coach Richie Adubato and named Gar Heard the interim head coach. The team went 9-44 the rest of the way, which was not enough for Heard to keep the job. Seven years later, he’d blow Abe Pollin away, become Washington’s head coach and get fired 44 games into his first season with a 14-30 record.
None of the foregoing should be read as slander to the players or coaches. They all seem to be giving an honest effort. The players just aren’t that good. A few of them have impressive pasts. A few might have impressive futures. But that’s not where they are this season.
All of this makes sense — Ted Leonsis, Michael Winger, Travis Schlenk, and Will Dawkins set a strategy of being intentionally bad to get high draft picks and rebuild. The first step — losing lots of games — is the easy part. The hard stuff is ahead.
If they get things right, history says the team could be back in the playoffs in 3-5 years. If they don’t…well…it could take a lot longer.
1992-93 Dallas Mavericks
With just 11 wins in 82 games and the worst adjusted scoring margin in league history, this was arguably the worst team ever. The following season, they improved…to 13 wins. Then they jumped to 36 wins before backsliding to three more seasons with win totals in the 20s, and another that was at a 31-win pace (it was a season shortened to 50 games by a labor dispute).
All told, the Mavericks went a decade between seasons with a winning record or a postseason appearance. During that span, they went through seven head coaches.
2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats
The Bobcats bounced back faster than those Mavericks did. This was the second of three straight losing seasons. After the 2011-12 debacle, they replaced head coach Paul Silas with Mike Dunlap. With Dunlap at the helm, they improved to 21 wins, but the front office fired him too and hired Steve Clifford.
Charlotte had a winning season and lost in the first round of playoffs. They missed the playoffs the following season, bounced back to a 48-win season and a first round exit from postseason the year after that.
Over the past eight seasons: one winning season and zero trips to the playoffs.
1970-71 Cleveland Cavaliers
This team came with a built-in excuse: it was their first year in existence. They tallied five straight losing seasons before cracking the “above .500” barrier with a 49-33 record and a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. That was as good as it got for the Cavaliers — they won 43 games each of the next two seasons and then tail-spun into nine straight losing years and one postseason appearance.
1997-98 Denver Nuggets
This was the third of eight straight seasons where the Nuggets missed the playoffs. This will be year four for the Wizards. Denver burned through coaches — seven different guys during the eight-year span, including one season led by Mike D’Antoni, who two years later would become head coach with the Phoenix Suns.
1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers
This was year two of what was basically a four-year rebuild. They went 30-52 the previous season, after which they parted ways with Jack Ramsay, who’d coached the team to decent records the preceding three years. Ramsay’s replacement, Roy Rubin, lasted 51 games (4-47). Rubin’s replacement was Kevin Loughery, who got 31 games (5-26). Gene Shue took over for four-plus years, which included a trip to the Finals just four seasons after the Sixers went 9-73.
This is well-trodden territory for the Wizards/Bullets. This franchise went eight straight seasons with sub-.500 seasons and zero trips to the playoffs, followed by a first round ouster, and seven more years without reaching the postseason. That period was followed by four trips to the playoffs, which was followed by another five-season dry spell.
They’ll miss the playoffs for a fourth straight year, and the sixth time in seven years. If Dawkins, et al. hit everything just right, they might be back in the postseason in another 2-3 seasons. That would mean 6-7 years in the desert for fans.
Looping back to the now, as bad as the team has been this season, things are likely to get worse if the front office is able to do what they want — trade veterans for draft picks. Not that they’ve been particularly good, but the team’s most productive players have been the veterans. If they’re traded, this team could go down as the worst in NBA history.
The Check-Up
Last time we did this kind of check-up, the Wizards were 2-11. Since then, they’ve gone 1-8, and their adjusted scoring margin has moved 1.2 points per game in the wrong direction. As would be expected for an undermanned team giving big minutes to teens and literal 20-year-olds, the team is not performing well in any meaningful area. This is the worst team in the NBA and one of the worst in league history.
Below are big picture KPIs — where they rank now, and where they ranked at our last check-up of the season:
- Strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin: 30th (30th)
- Offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions): 30th (29th)
- Defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 30th (30th)
- Pace (possessions per 48 minutes): 4th (3rd)
At least they’re getting their running in, I guess.
Let’s shift now to the Four Factors — the categories that define who wins and loses in basketball. These were codified by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver, who is author of the book “Basketball on Paper” as well as a just-released update (sequel?) “Basketball Beyond Paper.”
The factors apply to both ends of the floor.
Four Factors: Offense
- effective field goal percentage: 28th (26th)
- turnover percentage: 22nd (17th)
- offensive rebound percentage: 23rd (25th)
- free throws made / field goal attempts: 22nd (25th)
They’ve definitely earned their bottom-ranked offense. Just two rotation players have positive scores in my +PTS — Jonas Valanciunas (+16.8) and Malcolm Brogdon (+2.2). (+PTS compares a player’s efficiency to league average given the same level of usage. A positive score shows above average efficiency. A negative score shows below average efficiency.)
Each of the other seven rotation players rank near the bottom in +PTS:
- Kyle Kuzma — 7th worst
- Alex Sarr — 11th
- Bub Carrington — 18th
- Kyshawn George — 36th
- Jordan Poole — 58th
- Bilal Coulibaly — 62nd
The top 10 in this stat:
- Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets — +82.0
- Nikola Vucevic, Chicago Bullets — +69.1
- Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings — +66.9
- Daniel Gafford, Dallas Mavericks — +64.5
- Josh Hart, New York Knicks — +62.0
- Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks — +61.4
- Jarrett Allen, Cleveland Cavaliers — +61.3
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder — +59.3
- Cameron Johnson, Brooklyn Nets — +59.0
- Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat — +58.5
And the bottom 10:
- Kevin Porter Jr., Los Angeles Clippers — -63.2
- Jalen Green, Houston Rockets — -53.1
- Isaiah Collier, Utah Jazz — -50.5
- Keyonte George, Utah Jazz — -47.5
- Anthony Black, Orlando Magic — -46.2
- Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic — -43.6
- Kyle Kuzma, Washington Wizards — -43.4 — Yes, this stat is a TOTAL stat for the full season so far. Yes, he’s this low despite missing 10 games so far.
- Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons — -41.0
- Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs — -40.0
- Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans — -38.1
As mentioned above, Sarr is 11th from the bottom.
There’s no shame in being near the bottom in +PTS in your first 3-4 years in the league. Young players typically begin with inefficient offense (and defense) while learning and improving. Kuzma’s been in the bottom 10 repeatedly throughout his career, including his time in Washington.
Four Factors: Defense
- eFG%: 28th (27th)
- tov%: 26th (25th)
- defensive reb%: 27th (29th)
- dftm/dfga: 28th (27th)
Player Production Average
Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall production metric that rewards players for doing things that help a team win like making shots, playmaking, defending, and rebounding, and dings them for things that hurt the cause of winning like missing shots, committing turnovers, defending poorly and fouling.
Each factor is weighted based on regression analysis that determined how each category relates to winning. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
Below are the team’s PPA scores through 22 games followed by their PPA score in the last update.
Rotation
- Malcolm Brogdon — 119 (-26)
- Jonas Valanciunas — 112 (112)
- Jordan Poole — 108 (144)
- Bilal Coulibaly — 80 (116)
- Alex Sarr — 67 (58)
- Bub Carrington — 43 (88)
- Corey Kispert — 41 (48)
- Kyle Kuzma — 32 (28)
- Kyshawn George — 29 (37)
Non-Rotation
- Justin Champagnie — 108 (0)
- Marvin Bagley III — 74 (38)
- Johnny Davis — 54 (34)
- Jared Butler — 53 (100)
- Patrick Baldwin Jr. — 53 (33)
- Richaun Holmes — 39 (40)
- Anthony Gill — 37 (57)
The most worrisome number so far this season is one I haven’t mentioned yet. That number is 16.0%, which is my calculation for Bilal Coulibaly’s usage rate. That ranks 11th on the Wizards this season. Here are the Wizards so far this season with a usage rate above 20% (league average), and their efficiency relative to average:
- Jordan Poole, 27.8% (-5.3 points produced per 100 possessions relative to average)
- Kyle Kuzma, 26.1% (-23.2)
- Jonas Valanciunas, 25.3% (+7.0)
- Malcolm Brogdon, 23.7% (+2.1)
That’s it. That’s the list.
If there’s something to be gained by letting four guys who won’t be part of the team when/if they’re good again dominate the worst offense in the league for one of the worst teams in league history, I’m not sure what it is.