Fake trades galore!
Earlier in the week, I wrote that the Wizards shouldn’t concern themselves with replacing Kyle Kuzma’s scoring (or on-court production overall) when pondering potential trades. The tl;dr was a) Kuzma’s scoring isn’t valuable or impactful, b) his overall production is basically about average, and c) he’s about to turn 29 years old, which means he has much more of an NBA past than a future.
For Washington’s stated goal of being good in a few years, the most valuable thing the team can do with Kuzma is trade him for future assets who might fill useful roles over the next 5-7 years.
Readers had an array of responses and perspectives, which were interesting and entertaining enough for me to recommend actually reading the comments section. The most salient question to emerge: what could the Wizards reasonably expect to get for Kuzma if they trade him?
Let’s begin with a few assumptions:
- While every NBA team has at least a stats and analytics person whose analysis may be similar to mine, decision-makers listen to the analytics person (or team) to varying degrees.
- While every NBA team has at least a stats and analytics person whose analysis may be similar to mine, belief in the “Things Will be Different With Our Team” theorem is strong among coaches and decision-makers.
- Reports about the team’s trade deadline negotiations regarding Kuzma provide an indicator of his value. Reportedly, the Wizards front office wanted two first round picks, as well as whatever filler was necessary to make the trade possible. The Mavericks weren’t willing to pay that much for Kuzma — they traded filler and two first round picks to acquire P.J. Washington from the Charlotte Hornets, and Daniel Gafford from the Wizards. That suggests Kuzma’s value is likely a player and a pick, and NOT the two picks the Wizards reportedly want.
As I embark on this exercise, I’m not engaging in trade machine silliness. In other words, while Kuzma to the San Antonio Spurs for Victor Wembanyama and Devonte’ Graham “works” under the league’s collective bargaining agreement, there’s no way the Spurs make that deal, and it would be stupid to include it as anything but an absurd example that could never happen.
In other words, these fake trades have to be reasonable for both teams. Here are teams I considered and the kinds of deals that might be possible.
Let’s start in the Eastern Conference.
Cleveland Cavaliers
I looked for a deal, and I just don’t see one that makes much sense. I could envision something built around Kuzma and Darius Garland, but Washington would really want Cleveland’s 2024 first round pick (20th overall)…because the Cavs don’t have another first until 2030.
That said, it’s hard to imagine Cleveland giving up Garland and the pick for Kuzma and Tyus Jones, or Kuzma and Corey Kispert and filler. Sure, Garland had an subpar season, but he was an All-Star in 2022, and he was still pretty good. If they’re going to trade him, they could surely do better than Kuzma and stuff. Especially if they’re willing to add that pick.
Maybe if they strike out everywhere else and feel like they need to make a move?
For the Wizards, it’d be a no-brainer. Garland would instantly be the best player on the team, he’s entering his age 25 season, and he has four more years left on his contract.
Milwaukee Bucks
This is the kind of team that could use Kuzma, but they have nothing to trade for him that would make them any better. Kuzma for Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton “works” in the trade checker, but it’s nonsense — the Wizards don’t want either of those guys, and trading both for Kuzma would weaken Milwaukee on the court. Which would mean the Bucks wouldn’t be willing to include any of the three first round picks they could trade (though all three are encumbered by swaps controlled by other teams).
Nothing to see here, unless Milwaukee ownership first Jon Horst and gives control to Doc Rivers, at which point Brook Lopez and a first round pick wouldn’t be out of the question.
Philadelphia 76ers
Hard to imagine Dork Elvis Daryl Morey trading much of value for Kuzma — especially since Philly doesn’t even need to dump salary to go hunting for a real star.
Miami Heat
The Heat could use a forward with size and the ability to stay healthy enough to play 65-70 games. A Kuzma for Duncan Robinson, Thomas Bryant and Miami’s 2024 first round pick works in the checker and doesn’t sound absurd. The Heat would essentially be paying a first (15th pick overall) to turn two contracts they don’t want (Robinson and Bryant) into one they do.
The Wizards would want to move Robinson to another team, and might be able to collect a 2nd round pick to do it. Or trade Robinson 2.0 (also known as Kispert).
Maybe?
Atlanta Hawks
This is a potentially interesting trade partner. Atlanta has the kind of bad contract (De’Andre Hunter) that they may be willing to pay to unload. Acquiring Kuzma wouldn’t save them any money, but it would transmogrify that salary slot into something more productive. They’d still be able to trade Trae Young or Dejounte Murray elsewhere. And they have the picks (some are somewhat encumbered by swaps).
Could they be talked into paying a second round pick to get off of Hunter’s deal and get Kuzma and Kispert? What if Washington also absorbed Clint Capela and included Jones on a sign-and-trade?
Nah, probably not. But Kuzma for Hunter and Sacramento’s future first, or maybe whatever pick the Hawks end up with in 2026 (the Spurs own a swap). That seems like a long time for Washington to wait, but another first is too much to expect Atlanta to pay to dump Hunter. So, tack on a couple second round picks and call it a day.
That’s about it for the Eastern Conference. Let’s head out west.
Denver Nuggets
First name that catches my eye, in part because I’d love to see if Kuzma could become efficient playing with Nikola Jokic. The only deal framework I could see working would be something involving Michael Porter Jr. and the 28th pick coming to Washington for Kuzma and Jones on a sign-and-trade (or Kispert and filler).
Poor series against the Minnesota Timberwolves notwithstanding, Porter is better than Kuzma. But getting Jones or Kispert in the deal — effectively breaking Porter’s deal into two different players who could provide more depth and lineup versatility — might be worth giving up the 28th pick…especially if the Wizards would include a second round pick or two that Denver could use to maybe get more cheap role players.
Now, the Wizards don’t really want Porter (or shouldn’t), but that’s a bonus for them because they can trade him for more stuff — perhaps even another first round pick.
Los Angeles Clippers
A trade of Normal Powell and filler for Kuzma would be easy to construct and make sense for both teams…if the Clippers could be talked into trading their 2030 first round pick (the only available one they have left to trade), and if the Wizards could be talked into waiting that long.
Washington doesn’t actually want Powell — they’d promptly repackage him elsewhere.
Ultimately, I can’t see the Clippers spending that 2030 first on Kuzma, though I think he’d be a good fit and have some genuine value for them — both as a reserve and a spot starter on the many nights when Kawhi Leonard or Paul George can’t play.
Dallas Mavericks
Nope. The Wizards had their chance to send him there, but they passed. And then Kuzma said silly stuff about the Mavericks.
Phoenix Suns
Reunite Kuzma and Bradley Beal? It could make theoretical sense on the basketball court, but the Suns don’t have draft picks or any interesting young players to deal.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers could use a player like Kuzma, and he did win a championship with Lebron James and Anthony Davis back in the bubble. But aside from picks, the Lakers don’t have much they’d be willing to give up that would interest the Wizards.
A deal that looks something like Kuzma for Jarred Vanderbilt, Jalen Hood-Schifino, filler and a first round pick might work for both teams. Once again, the Wizards would be taking on guys they wouldn’t really want, but that’s okay for a rebuilding team. They might get something for Vanderbilt in another trade. And Hood-Schifino is at least kinda-sorta interesting.
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento has been a hot Kuzma destination in The Rumor Mill, and maybe Kuzma would be a somewhat modest upgrade from Harrison Barnes? I guess?
The important thing would for the Kings to believe Kuzma was enough of an upgrade that they’d pay a first round pick to get him. A deal would probably include Barnes and a filler contract or two. If it was my call, I’d make the deal for Barnes, Keon Ellis, Colby Jones and a first (I’d take the 13th overall pick this year, though I’d also be willing to wait a year or two for a pick to convey in a better draft).
I’d hope to trade Barnes and Ellis for other stuff, but I’m actually interested in Jones. He rated pretty well in the 2023 version of YODA, and I’d be curious to see if he could turn into something with the kind of minutes and opportunity available in Washington.
Golden State Warriors
As a basketball fan, I’d be interested to see Kuzma trying to mesh with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. I don’t see a deal that makes much sense, though. Chris Paul and a first for Kuzma and filler could theoretically work. Maybe Andrew Wiggins and a pick.
The Wiggins deal would probably be a little more valuable for Washington if they could rehab his reputation and trade him again.
Probably not.
That’s about it, I’m afraid. Hopefully Will Dawkins is a good negotiator who can extract a couple picks from a trade partner. That would be ideal, even at the cost of acquiring a bad contract for a few years.
What’s your favorite fake Kuzma trade that might actually happen?