Happy New Year to our readers far and wide! Sometimes a matchup with the Capitals and Senators can have the intense Canada – US rivalry feel to it, and rightfully so. And heck, why not, right when the Spengler Cup and World Junior Championships happen. Today’s edition of NHL Predictions, presented by us here at Last Word On Hockey is between the capital cities of Canada and the USA, the Washington Capitals are paying a visit to the Ottawa Senators.
NHL Predictions Capitals and Senators
Season Series: Ottawa won the first of three meetings, 7-1.
Puck Drop: 1:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to Watch: RDS, TSN5, MNMT
Location: Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON
The Washington Capitals and the Ottawa Senators, in a battle of the respective Canadian and American National cities. You could also think of this as the battle of the Nick Jensen for Jakob Chychrun trade. Let’s take a look at both team’s stories.
Discussing a Few of the Washington Capitals Intangibles
Washington comes into this one on a bit of a high. Having two players named to the team, and one pleasant surprise who just missed out, for the Canadian Olympic roster. Those players include Tom Wilson and goaltender Logan Thompson making it, and the blueliner amid a monster 2025-26 campaign, Jakob Chychrun was left off it.
The Sens Olympic Impact
It a bit of an ironic twist, Washington has the Canadian Olympians, and Ottawa doesn’t. But Ottawa flips the script, as they have some American hopefuls. Team USA waited to announce their Olympic roster until tomorrow. However, Ottawa has two looking to crack the squad and one player who had, early in the season, been making a very strong case. Sens captain Brady Tkachuk has already been named to the team. Jake Sanderson seems to be all but assured a spot on the squad. Finally, Shane Pinto is as good of a third-line centre as there is in the NHL. When he’s in the Sens lineup, they have been a different team, and that’s throughout his career. Whether it is Ridly Greig or Claude Giroux along with Michael Amadio on the third line with Pinto, the line tends to own its competition. However, after his hot start offensively, an injury and a slow down in production, his possible selection is more of pipe dream at this point in time.
We focused on Canada and US so far, but these two NHL teams have others countries represented, as well. For Washington, Martin Fehervary looks to represent Slovakia. Also, a pair of defenders are in the category of possible roster selections, Rasmus Sandin (Sweden) and John Carlson (USA).
For the Sens, they have a number of players in the mix. Two guys likely will represent Denmark, include Mads Sogaard (currently in AHL) and Lars Eller (currently nursing a broken foot). Also, don’t forget Tim Stutzle (Germany), Nikolas Matinpalo (Finland), and Linus Ullmark (Sweden).
The Matchup, Between the Pipes
The goaltending matchup should involve the Team Canada invitee, in Logan Thompson for the Caps, and Leevi Merilainen for the Sens. However, this is a good time for our disclaimer to please check social media for the latest lineup news before locking in your daily fantasy roster.
Logan Thompson, as you might well imagine, comes into this one with excellent numbers. As a team, as Charlie Lindgren has gotten into 12 games, but they combined for a .901 team save percentage. But, Thompson’s save percentage is .915. He also has a terrific goals-against average (2.33). His big play is a reason why Washington is as strong as they are. Ottawa will have to get in his grill.
Meanwhile, for Merilainen, with Linus Ullmark taking a step away from the club, looks to be thrust into the starter’s role. Again, we shall use the team’s overall save percentage as a benchmark. Even though Merilainen has a poor personal .869 save percentage, the team only sits at .872. So, his poor numbers are more of a result of a collective group in front of him searching for answers.
Studying the Statistical Matchup Between Capitals and Sens
If we compare the team statistics, we can help decide who might prevail. Both teams score at about the same rate, goals-for-per-game Ottawa 3.21 (10th) and Washington 3.25 (eighth). In contrast, Washington does a better job of keeping the puck out of their net. Their goals-allowed-per-game is seventh at 2.75 and Ottawa is 24th at 3.26. If we combine power play and penalty kill percentages, the teams are fairly even. Ottawa sums to about 96% and Washington is around 92%. Ottawa is strong on the power play, but thus far, historically bad on the penalty kill. If they want to be a Stanley Cup Playoff team, they need to correct it.
NHL Predictions
Ottawa (eighth in the Atlantic Division) had been hot, winning five of six games. But more recently, they have lost three straight coming into today’s game. Moreover, Washington (fourth in the Metropolitan Division standings) isn’t exactly lighting it up either recently. They are 4-5-3 in their last 12. However, they had been scorching hot, winning nine of 10. Needless to say, both teams are looking to get back on track. We like Ottawa at home, but otherwise will be a great matchup. We will add, even though Ottawa is in last place in the Atlantic, with this being January 1st, they only trail the division leading Detroit Red Wings by ten points. Wow!
Prediction: Capitals 2 – Senators 4
Prop Bets
It’s time for our, always challenging, anytime goal scorer selections. Aliaksei Protas would be the Caps pick. In his last four games, he has three goals and five asissts. For Ottawa, we have to go with the man on the 10-game point streak, with 17 points over that span. An offensive leader for Ottawa and also his home country Germany, Tim Stutzle is that man. He also has goals in four of his last five games, more specific to our goal-scorer guesses.
Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-IMAGN Images
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